Outline · [ Standard ] · Linear+ How much of Tournements are luck?, Money in good, should I be happy

[PokerJohn]

This is not meant to be a Bad Beat story, I am just interested in hearing thoughts on how much of tournement poker is based on getting lucky at the right time. I finished 3rd in this tournement, so I am not complaining, but looking back I think I really should have had the win.

I was chip leader (just) with 3 left, and made my one bad decision to OTB who had been pushing to every raise I made. But anyway, I had a look at the equity of all in pots, and this is what I found:

In all I was involved in an allin 18 times. Of these, I got my money in bad only 3 times - and lost them all:
1. The bad decision with 3 left
2. Against the shortest stack who push UTG with 3bb to my A7 in the BB
3. AQ vs OTB 66 who called my all in reraise (6 left, I was chip leader ~3* his stack and he had been stealing for 3 rounds)

When I got my money in good, I lost with KK allin PF twice - both to the guy in #3 above.
SB: vs AJ & AT; JJx flop
BB: vs QQ, he rivered a Q to knock me out in 3rd
I also lost a pot to him with 77 vs AT once again, allin pf

Overall, the 4 big pots I lost were ALL to the same guy (only the final KK vs QQ would not have knocked him out), and he should have been out on the first of them.

So, back to the original point - how much of tournement poker is about luck and timing? If my 64% AK had lost to the crippled 94s, but my 72% KK had beat the AJ I'd have knocked my nemesis out first time of asking. If either of the coin flips had gone my way, same goes. If my KK had held again QQ (82%), instead of QQ holding against AT (71%), I'd have been well back into things with 3 left. Timing is everything...

[JohnnyT812]

Define "Luck" please!

[JPasky]

I have had more than my share of success playing large field MTT’s (dozens of wins) and I definitely think you need some luck to take one down. Lucky could include........ catching big hands at the right time, dodging bad beats, sucking out or getting a soft table.

With that said I think over a large sample your luck will even out and the better players will show the better win rates.

Best of luck next time!!!


Jeff P

[Liam123]

last B&R STTs I've sat, were 6 total

4 finals, 1 victory, 1 3rd or 4th place...usually out of a field of 7 or 8 players. I admit too, I probably would have won 3 out of 6 if I didn't have low blood sugar..4-5 hours without food is tough!

Skill definitely a factor in aiding with your luck

[PokerJohn]

last B&R STTs I've sat, were 6 total

4 finals, 1 victory, 1 3rd or 4th place...usually out of a field of 7 or 8 players. I admit too, I probably would have won 3 out of 6 if I didn't have low blood sugar..4-5 hours without food is tough!

Skill definitely a factor in aiding with your luck

I suppose it's like everything else - a larger sample is needed I think I played OK - 18 of 21 in good, and of those 3 'in bad' one was an instacall given it was only 3bb.

I guess looking at the 77 vs AT, I am a slight favourite, so over 100,000 hands, I want my money in here. However, if the 54% I win are always against the guy with 4bb and the 46% I lose are against the CL, then although my win % is right I am out every time. But, over a large sample, I "should" get my share of wins against the CL, as well as losses against the 4bb guy. That said, when it happens against the same opponent 4 times in one tournement, it's hard to take!

That said, I played another the other day and I was absolutely unstoppable. I double up KK vs QQ on set vs set on the first hand, and was chip leader throughout.

[rinky9888]

The most crucial skill in willing a multi-table poker tournament is luck. If you join a poker tournament with 200 people you need to win more than your fair share of coin flips to win the entire tournament. Skill and experience can get you far, but luck is essential to win a tournament. A tournament player running bad can play an enormous amount of tournaments without cashing in. The variance in MTT’s is crazy and only a very limited number of players make their living playing tournament poker.

If you are already a successful ring game player you will need to adjust your strategy. In ring games you need to accumulate the maximum amount of chips. In tournament poker you need to collect all the chips under a certain timeframe and constantly increasing blinds. That means you must win chips a lot faster than in ring games and therefore play more hands.

[armaniss]

i use strategy from doubleornothingstrategy com when playing Dons, clear skill not to much luck

[LiarsDice]

i use strategy from doubleornothingstrategy com when playing Dons, clear skill not to much luck

Do you seriously think anyone that would use your ###### link would believe an idiot like you?

[blaneMan]

I think your question is really, "how unlucky can I be in a tournament?" Answer is a lot more times near the end.

You should be less interested at this point in winning and more interested in stealing from the weaker of the other two.. and hanging on to that chip advantage with selective aggression..

Sounds easier than it is, of course. Butting heads with two players is not easy at all.

[smenpoker]

Luck... maybe software wishes...
Chose what is correct :
I will win an allin if:
a) I produced more rake to poker room than other guys involved in allin
b ) Is only a blind luck ...
c) I have really poker skills
d) other...