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Server Time: 9/5/2008 12:03:05 AM PACIFIC |
 Pockets vs High cards, Ben J, 30. Dec 2003 23:17 | ||
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| I have a question for some of the poker experts out there. Say there is a preflop raise in a 9 person table that isolates the raiser with one other person in a heads up situation. If you have say AK, AQ, AJ, or A10, what are the odds that your opponent has cards both ten and higher but not wired. Assume you can eliminate any hands with a card below 10. Basically I want to know, if you have big cards, what are the chances that your opponent has big cards as well. And what are the chances that he has a pocket pair dueces thru aces. I know you can get feelings of these things through betting patterns, but by random card distribution I would like to know the odds. Also, if you have a pocket pair, what are the odds that your opponent also has a pocket pair. And what are the odds your opponent has big cards when you have a pocket pair. Thanks for your help. | ||
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| Re: Pockets vs High cards, jajo, 31. Dec 2003 11:43 | ||
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| Holdem is not an "open" game like stud. Since you don't see any of your opponent's cards, your sole judgement about what your opponent is holding is based on "assumptions". These assumptions are mostly based on some general conventions and on your opponetns particular playing style. You know almost for sure that your opponent is not holding 72. You also know that this particular player you are up against will usually not raise with pocket three's or fours or with a QTo etc... These assumptions are the basis of your judgement. Well, of course, if you are holding big cards, it makes it slightly less likely that your opponent is holding those very same ranks. That's simple math. However, since you know that your opponent won't be raising with garbage, this knowledge is more central to you when it comes to judging what your opponent has. It is still more likely that your opponent is holding big cards since most players won't play small cards. If your opponent only plays a "sklansky group 1-5 hand" then that will be a total of 240 different card combinations. 48 of them will be pairs (A-7, 6 combinations for each). Therefore 48/240 = .20 making it a 20% chance that he's playing a pair. The rest of the time he will be playing suited connectors or big cards. To see more about this, visit the stats page on my website: http://pokerstrategy.org/poker_stats/poker_stats_he.htm#sklansky | ||
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