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Server Time: 8/30/2008 6:07:09 AM PACIFIC |
 Making your draw, Alex Ptek, 30. Dec 2003 21:39 | ||
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| I've only been playing poker for about 4 months now. I have just begun to start learning about odds and percentages. I have a few questions. Lets say Im holding 10d 5d, and the flop comes up with two diamonds, both lower than 10. Assuming I don't hit a pair or set or anything, I'm not quite sure how to play this hand. If there is betting before me, how do I determine whether or not the correct play is to try to draw to my flush? What are the variables that go into it, and what does each variable mean? (For example, lets say the answer is "It depends how much betting is going on"... would that mean if there's a lot of betting I should play the hand or I shouldnt?) Also, if I hit my flush by the river, making it a total of 3 diamonds on board (all lower than 10), what are the chances in a 6 handed game that someone is holding two diamonds, one being higher than a ten? Thanks, mrMagic715@aol.com | ||
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| Re: Making your draw, Palinya, 30. Dec 2003 22:55 | ||
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| I think you need to be much much more selective about your starting hands. T5s should have been thrown away. The decision is a lot easier when you are holding AKs. Don't put yourself in a situation where you will have a tough call to make after you hit your flop! | ||
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| Re: Making your draw, Alex Ptek, 30. Dec 2003 23:31 | ||
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| > I think you need to be much much more selective about your starting hands. T5s > should have been thrown away. I realize this hand should be mucked, but it was just a theoretical question. For instance, let's say Im dealt 10 5s in the big blind with no raisers and this situation occurs. But I still understand what you were trying to say: I shouldn't be playing hands that would put me in this type of position post-flop in the first place. Thanks for your comments. | ||
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| Re: Making your draw, jaustin, 30. Dec 2003 23:38 | ||
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| Here's what it depends on for me: 1) Current size of the pot 2) Expected size of the pot if I hit my hand and start betting it 3) Odds of making draw 4) Odds that I could hit the draw and lose 5) Odds that I could hit another hand that could win - this requires a good read on what your opponents are holding 6) How many bets I expect to have to call on the flop and the turn | ||
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| Re: Making your draw, mkpoker, 31. Dec 2003 08:44 | ||
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| Alex, I can tell you how I'd play this hand, but that's far from a definitive answer (many, many players better than I on this board). That said, here are the factors I'd consider. 1. The pot odds. The odds for hitting a 5th flush card are about 4:1. That means, for every dollar you add to the pot, you should stand to make at least 4 (I'm ignoring implied odds here both because they don't apply all that much in this situation and to keep the example simple). So let's assume that pre-flop there were two early limpers and you're in the BB (playing 1/2). You check. That puts $3.50 in the pot. You check the flop and there's a bet and a call to you (putting $5.50 in the pot). If you call, you'll invest $1 to win $5.50. That's 5.5:1 odds, which is better than 4:1, indicating a call. 2. The chances you'll hit your draw and lose anyway. This is a big risk with your hand, because it's only T-high. You could very easily lose to a higher flush. Here's where it helps to know your opponents. Do they play a lot of flush draws? Some people are just "flush happy" and will play any two suited cards. If your opponent is "flush happy," I wouldn't chase this pot. Also, if there were many people in the pot, I'd be LESS likely to chase this hand (even though I'd be getting better pot odds). That's because 1) there's simply a greater chance that one of my opponents holds a better flush, and relatedly 2) LP players will gain the right odds to enter the pot with a marginal flush draw, like KXs, further increasing the chances that I'm up against a better draw. Also, many players in the pot increases the chances you'll get caught up in a raising war and will need to pay multiple bets to see the next card. With a marginal hand, that's the last thing you want. If you suspect it will cost your more than 1 bet each to see the turn and river, it's another reason to muck. Also, you need hope for EXACTLY 3 of your suit hit the board. If a 4th suited card hits, your chances of losing soar (for example, so someone holding KJo with one of your suit). All that said, if there were only 2-3 opponents in and the board wasn't otherwise threatening (not paired, for example). I'd likely call the flop, putting my opponents on unsuited high cards--the most common limping hand. It's possible I'm drawing dead to a higher flush, but that's a risk I'd take against few opponents. 3. If you make your flush on the turn, you must bet it strong, charging the max to any opponent who just picked up a draw. If the turn is a blank, compute your pot odds again, you'll probably have the right odds to call a single bet and see the river. 4. If both the turn and river are your suit (putting 4 on the board), you should probably check the river and consider folding if the action gets heavy. > I've only been playing poker for about 4 months now. I have just begun to start > learning about odds and percentages. I have a few questions. Lets say Im > holding 10d 5d, and the flop comes up with two diamonds, both lower than 10. > Assuming I don't hit a pair or set or anything, I'm not quite sure how to play > this hand. If there is betting before me, how do I determine whether or not the > correct play is to try to draw to my flush? What are the variables that go into > it, and what does each variable mean? (For example, lets say the answer is "It > depends how much betting is going on"... would that mean if there's a lot of > betting I should play the hand or I shouldnt?) Also, if I hit my flush by the > river, making it a total of 3 diamonds on board (all lower than 10), what are > the chances in a 6 handed game that someone is holding two diamonds, one being > higher than a ten? Thanks, > mrMagic715@aol.com | ||
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| Re: Making your draw, Alex Ptek, 31. Dec 2003 11:10 | ||
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| Thank you very much for your analysis, I learned a lot from reading it. I still have a question or two though. You said: "3. If you make your flush on the turn, you must bet it strong, charging the max to any opponent who just picked up a draw. If the turn is a blank, compute your pot odds again, you'll probably have the right odds to call a single bet and see the river. " Ok lets say the turn is a diamond, and I bet strong to push out a one card high diamond draw. Now lets say I am raised. Should I assume the raiser has also made their higher draw and that I'd be drawiing dead if I call? Now lets say the turn is a blank. You said to calculate my pot odds again and use that to decide whether or not to call. Then my question is this: I can easily figure out the ratio of chips I'll put in to How much I'd win by simply counting. But I do not know what the chances are that I'll make my hand, which is necessary to determine my pot odds from what you've told me. So: -What is the ratio (say 3.8:1 , or whatever) that I will hit my flush on the turn? -If I do not hit it on the turn, what is the ratio that I will hit it on the river? -If I do hit the flush on the turn, what is the ratio of ANOTHER diamond hitting the board on the river? Thank you very much for taking the time to help me figure out these things and improve my game. | ||
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| Re: Making your draw, mkpoker, 31. Dec 2003 12:18 | ||
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| on 31. Dec 2003 11:10 Alex Ptek wrote: > Thank you very much for your analysis, I learned a lot from reading it. I still have a > question or two though. Matt Says: You're welcome, I'll try to answer these one at a time.> Matt Said: "3. If you make your flush on the turn, you must bet it strong, charging the max to any opponent who just picked up a draw. > Alex said: Ok lets say the turn is a diamond, and I bet strong to push out a one card high diamond draw. Matt says: You're not trying to push them out. If they've picked up an A or K-high flush draw, they're staying until the river almost every time. What you're trying to do is charge them a price for chasing. You must, as a rule, charge drawers to draw out on you--never give free cards when you're ahead but vulnerable! (There's a chance you'll get them to throw away a J or Q-high flush draw with a turn bet, but it's a pretty slim chance). Alex said: Now lets say I am raised on the turn. Should I assume the raiser has also made their higher draw and that I'd be drawiing dead if I call? Matt Says: Very tough to say...it really depends on your opponents. If they're a "no bluff" type, then you should fold. But raising the turn with the nut flush draw is a great semi-bluff, so I would't generally assume a made hand. In most cases, I'd pay off the turn and then lead at the river. But if raised on the river, especially if a 4th flush card hits, I'd probably fold, unless I had specific reasons to suspect a bluff. Alex said: Now lets say the turn is a blank. You said to calculate my pot odds again and use that to decide whether or not to call. Then my question is this: I can easily figure out the ratio of chips I'll put in to How much I'd win by simply counting. But I do not know what the chances are that I'll make my hand, which is necessary to determine my pot odds from what you've told me. So: -What is the ratio (say 3.8:1 , or whatever) that I will hit my flush on the turn? If I do not hit it on the turn, what is the ratio that I will hit it on the river? Matt Says: Some people are odds-savants, who can calculate every permutation at the tables. I'm not one of them, but this is something you must commit to memory: You're odds of making a flush ON THE NEXT CARD are slightly worse than 4:1. Odds are a little better on the river than the turn, because there are fewer unseen cards. Some poker authorities (Sklansky & Malmuth among them) believe it's essential NOT to calculate odds card-by-card but instead calculate pot odds with two cards to come. Others (Brier & Ciaffone) take a "cross that bridge when we come to it" approach and figure odds on only the next card. For now, I'd suggest keeping it simple and looking one card at a time. Let's go back to your hand and assume there's $6 in the pot and two opponents. The turn comes a blank and you check. There's a bet ($2) and a call ($2) to you, putting $10 in the pot. You're getting 5:1 to call, which is better than the 4:1 odds of making your flush. It's closer than it looks because (as noted above) you might make your flush and lose, but I'd probably go ahead and call. Note that if you were heads up, you wouldn't have the right odds to chase and should probably fold. If I do hit the flush on the turn, what is the ratio of ANOTHER diamond hitting the board on the river? The odds of a the river being a 4th card of your suit are are 8/46, or 17.5%, or just under 6:1. But that's not all that relevant. Even if your opponent has the right odds to draw, you want to charge him the maximum to do it. And if he has the wrong odds to draw, your bet makes his call even less correct. > > Thank you very much for taking the time to help me figure out these things and improve my > game. | ||
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| Re: Making your draw, Alex Ptek, 31. Dec 2003 14:23 | ||
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| Thanks again mkpoker for answering my questions. So you're saying that I have a 4:1 shot to hit the flush on the turn. Then, if I read correctly, did you say if the turns comes up blank that I have BETTER than 4:1 to make it on the river? I wasn't exactly sure after reading your response. Also, can you please give me a few more of the odds numbers that I need to commit to memory to figure out common pot odds situations? LIke chances of making a straight if u flop open ended or inside draws, etc. Thanks a lot, your help is much appreciated. Alex | ||
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| Re: Making your draw, mkpoker, 31. Dec 2003 15:05 | ||
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| on 31. Dec 2003 14:23 Alex Ptek wrote: > Thanks again mkpoker for answering my questions. So you're saying that I have a 4:1 shot to hit the > flush on the turn. Then, if I read correctly, did you say if the turns comes up blank that I have > BETTER than 4:1 to make it on the river? I wasn't exactly sure after reading your response. Geez. Now I've got to do math, lol. These differences are VERY slight. On the turn, your odds hitting the flush are 4.235:1. On the river, your odds increase to 4.102:1 (because there are fewer unknown cards). Both are "slightly worse than 4:1", but the river is ever-so-slightly better. > > Also, can you please give me a few more of the odds numbers that I need to commit to memory to > figure out common pot odds situations? LIke chances of making a straight if u flop open ended or > inside draws, etc. Thanks a lot, your help is much appreciated. > Sure, other odds to rember (on the next card only, all figures rounded) are: Straight-flush (you hold 6d7d and flop has 8d9d): 2:1 Pair (needing a set on the next card): 23:1 Gutshot (inside straight): 11:1 Two overcards: 7:1 Open-end straight draw: 5:1 Flush draw: 4:1 Most poker books will contain some other odds you need to know by heart. You should get them! | ||
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| Re: Making your draw, Alex Ptek, 31. Dec 2003 16:42 | ||
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| As usual, thanks for the response. >>Straight-flush (you hold 6d7d and flop has 8d9d): 2:1 You don't mean those are your odds of hitting a straight flush, do you? I am assuming by that you mean that you have a 2:1 chance to hit a straight, flush, or straight flush, correct? Can you reccomend a good book for someone who isn't a total newbie but is just starting to learn these sorts of things about odds? Thanks, Alex | ||
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| Re: Making your draw, mkpoker, 31. Dec 2003 19:04 | ||
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| on 31. Dec 2003 16:42 Alex Ptek wrote: > As usual, thanks for the response. > > >>Straight-flush (you hold 6d7d and flop has 8d9d): 2:1 > > You don't mean those are your odds of hitting a straight flush, do you? I am assuming by that you mean that > you have a 2:1 chance to hit a straight, flush, or straight flush, correct? > Matt Says: Yes. A 2:1 chance of EITHER a str8, flush, or str8flush. > Can you reccomend a good book for someone who isn't a total newbie but is just starting to learn these sorts of things about odds? Matt Says: It sounds like you're quite close to starting out. I'd recommend either Hold "Em Excellence by Lou Krieger, LL Hold Em by Lee Jones, or Ken Warren's LL Hold 'em. Warren has an expecially good statistical section on odds. > > Thanks, > Alex | ||
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| Re: Making your draw, Alex Ptek, 31. Dec 2003 23:00 | ||
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| Thank you for your suggestions. I plan on picking up Hold'Em Excellence by Lou Krieger tomorrow. I looked through the table of contents at borders.com and it seems like it's very comprehensive, covering everything from preflop strategy to choosing the right game to positions to odds, etc. Thanks for pointing it out to me. Happy New Year, Alex | ||
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| Re: Making your draw, jajo, 12. Jan 2004 13:51 | ||
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| "On the turn, your odds hitting of hitting the flush are 4.235:1. On the river, your odds increase to 4.102:1 (because there are fewer unknown cards..." That's wrong. On the turn the odds of hitting the flush are (47/9=5.22) 4.22:1 and on the river it's (46/9=5.11)4.11:1 See the percentages on my website http://pokerstrategy.org/poker_stats/poker_stats_stud.htm#comparison | ||
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