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Server Time: 8/21/2008 9:35:59 PM PACIFIC |
 what can you do????, theo, 30. Dec 2003 19:49 | ||
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| Hi all, hope all is well I play at a few sites and notice one thing with online play. With so many people playing online, theres a wide range of skill. I play smart, I like to think and lately I have been giving my opponents to much credit . I put them on a pair of aces with a higher kicker than my pair of aces with a 4 kicker. And turns out they have paired queens LOL. Situations like that have been happening. This cant be a new issue or problem LOL thanks in advance | ||
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| Re: what can you do????, kennycatkiller, 31. Dec 2003 03:04 | ||
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| i hope you are not often playing Ace - four, or you will, in time, be a loser! unless you are in the blind and get a "free" flop, why would you get involved? what do you hope to flop? i would rather pair the four than the ace. think about it. kennycatkiller | ||
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| Re: what can you do????, 27o, 31. Dec 2003 09:51 | ||
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| yep....nothing you can do with those cards. i assume that you're suited, and trying to hit a flush on the flop. the most you can do is raise in position if you have it, and try to get a free card to spike a 4 on the turn or river. but you can only do that if you have pot odds and nothing scary on the board. overall, A4 is not a good hand to play and an A on the board doesn't help you very much. folding is the right play usually. | ||
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| Re: what can you do????, theo, 31. Dec 2003 10:30 | ||
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| I totally agree with both of you. I should have mentioned that I would be in the BB or SB to make that call. Also I was just giving an example of situations that I find happening to me. The above example was fictional, but a lot of times i get pushed out of the pot with the board : A,Q,x,x,x I make a good decision (I think) and lay down my aces with a low kicker and he shows a pair of queens... Now IM not some guy who plays with his heart on his sleeve, heck, I layed down my set of flopped queens to a flush once, so I know when IM beat. Bottom line is I find myself putting my online opponents on cards they don't have and I usually have them beat. | ||
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| Re: what can you do????, Guy F, 2. Jan 2004 11:13 | ||
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| on 31. Dec 2003 10:30 theo wrote: > Bottom line is I find myself putting my online opponents on cards they don't have and I > usually have them beat. I assume that they're voluntarily showing their hands after you lay down (otherwise how would you know you had them beat). I've had similar experiences but I've been concerned lately that I'm not being completely objective. It's the "usually" part I worry about, because after a while I start to think I'm just unlucky and then the confirmation bias kicks in and I'm doomed, seeing pocket aces everywhere. So what I'm doing is religiously tracking all my online play with poker tracker. Then I don't have to wonder how many winning hands I'm laying down, I can tally it up with total objectivity and adjust my play accordingly (i.e. according to the opponent). I guess what I'm saying is that you should be careful about "keeping score" (good vs. bad laydowns) in your head because you might start looking at the world/table through either rose or mud tinted glasses. Speaking only for myself, I find it hard to be really objective so I need a little help from record keeping. | ||
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| Re: what can you do????, excession, 3. Jan 2004 10:40 | ||
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| guy - how are u using poker tracker to work out the amount of 'wrong' lay downs post-flop? I can't see the relevant filters for this unless you are replaying each post-flop laydown manually or somehow using MS access to extract it.. as regards the original question in loose micro limit/ $5 SnG play most people will play any ace and any kicker - a good proportion will also bet or call a second pair on the flop if its QQ I think (I'm no maths guy) that if there is one ace on the table and one in your hand..the chances of that third ace not being out in one of the other pockets is: 45/47 x 44/46 x 43/45 and so on 18 times (for each of the other 10 players pocket cards) - I put together a little basic program on my Palm and get this out at 37% 10 handed and 61% 6-handed - so 10-handed another ace is out there 63% of the time (less the small chance that is was folded). On the face of it 16% of the time he matches your ace the guy's in there with a 2 or 3 as kicker (I'm discounting AA and not worrying about the mariginal effect of your one 4 or the other 2 flop cards has on the odds here) and only then are you dominant.. (although not very with such low kickers a draw is a very likely outcome - two dimes gives a tie a 73% chance A4 vs A3 (assuming no flushes and no 2, 3 or 4 on the board)) So simply on the odds you are about a 60/40 dog here vs one opponent (and that's assuming he hasn't got you beat with trips of course!) However there is another consideration which might just help your odds which is that a lot of players especially in loose low limit games will pre-flop raise with any A down to A10 (and some maniacs simply with any ace - as the odds above show these last ones really are stupid) It is very hard to judge how much this shifts the odds in your favor, but my guess is that it might shift the situation to something like 55/45 to you overall. Not a position where I'd like to be chasing down anyone but a known and noted maniac or where I simply had to make a move, but maybe playable if the player is over-aggressive or out to steal. Multiple maniacs are a pain, but the way to beat them is patience - if you play only the aces with the good kickers and they play all the aces you will eventually trap them very big indeed, trust me. I am a little looser in what I'll see at the flop in $5 SNG's than normal as there are usually a lot of people still in at flop stage and post-flop lay downs of any sort of hand are so infrequent The best trap of all is trips vs them which nearly always leads to a huge payoff in $5 SNG's so I tend to overplay medium and small pairs to the flop (esp. if I have a decent stack) and will play decent connectors down to about 76 in late position. However I am ruthless in ditching them at the flop if they don't come off..these are investments in long shots and to be done when cheap or when big stacked (which hopefully you will be). Some days I just make my stack and tighten up (which is sound advice in tournies too :) In tournies I do not chase pot-odds all the way to the river unless I really can afford to lose my bets. My Poker Tracker shows that all the o/s Aces down to Ace 10 are big winners in $5 SNG's and all the ones below are losers (although the A2-4 have gut str8 draw possibilities, this only adds about 4% to pot win % and it doesn't make up for the domination vs other ace problems set out above) I hope the above is useful to you - keep it tight and you will be rewarded - and as a rule of thumb assume you will get at least one or two bad beast/SnG- the tactic is to play (at least in limit SnG's) so that a couple of bad beats will not put you out - the maniacs may win the occasional battle for your blinds/initial bet, or even outdraw you against the odds on the river once or twice, butyou will win most of the ones that go to showdown (and guess which pots have more money in :) Good luck Consilience | ||
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| Re: what can you do????, Guy F, 3. Jan 2004 14:46 | ||
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| on 3. Jan 2004 10:40 excession wrote: > guy - how are u using poker tracker to work out the amount of 'wrong' lay downs post-flop? Well the other guy has to show his cards after I fold or I don't know. But I get shown cards often enough to make it worthwhile (to me, at least) to keep track of it. I went through a phase recently where I was convinced that I was letting myself be bullied out of pots I would have won if I'd had the guts to stay in against scary raises. So if I stayed til the river I'd call anything. I found that I was 2nd best nearly always, so my pendulum swung back from "I'm a wimp" to "I'm prudent". Recognizing the mood swing, though, I wanted an objective reference. It's a rather manual use of PT, I'll admit, but I can at least go back after a session to look at hands where I saw a showdown and review the hands where the other guy showed his cards. This helps me be more objective about whether I'm being a wimp or not. | ||
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