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Server Time: 8/20/2008 4:47:40 AM PACIFIC |
 It's not as good as it looks., grant pittman, 30. Dec 2003 11:06 | ||
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| One of my closest friends Tom, who plays recreational poker, was telling me about a hand he played this weekend and wanted my opinion. Tom is an intelligent man and challenges himself at everything he does. Poker has tested him well over the last 6 years. Tom was playing $20-$40 holdem at a small casino in Brantford, Ontario, Canada. He was in a loose aggressive type of game and was dealt the AK of diamonds in the SB. The action came to him at 4 bets before the flop with what looked to be 7 way!!! Tom called the $70 and 7 players looked at a K-Q-J offsuit flop with one diamond. Tom decided to lead at the field. It was raised and reraised when the action got back to him with 2 players folding. Tom thought and called the $40 and they took the turn 5 way for 3 bets. The turn brought an ace. Tom checked. One player lead and it was raised and called by another with only one player folding. Tom was in a jam here. It was obvious that at least 2 players held a 10 for the straight and it was certain to be capped on this betting round. Tom called the $80 bet cold and it did get capped with 4 players paying $160 to see the river card. The river was a blank and 3 players chopped the pot with a straight after Tom check folded. Tom was suspicious that he had made an error in the play of this hand. Like I said.....Tom is an intelligent man. Tom has an easy call preflop even in the worst position. AK suited plays fine multiway. After the preflop betting the pot had $560 in it. Tom decided to lead at the pot. I'm not a big fan of this play. It looks like a reasonable flop. Tom has top pair with a gutter to the nut straight so it would seem like a bet is in order here. However, if you get your crystal ball out and look into the very immediate future you should see some danger. This board , although offsuit, is still very coordinated and contains lots of draw potential as well as numerous "made hand combinations" that are ahead of Tom's hand and worse have some of his draw cards dead. The chance that Tom's hand is currently good and will hold up is very remote. Now if you look at the ways Tom's hand can improve and win the pot......well.....ummmmm. Tom would need 2 running diamonds (a touch better than 3%) or 2 runners that contained at king in the combination. The only other way is to hit a 10 to make a straight but the big problem with this way out is that you will very likely be chopping AT LEAST one way. I told my buddy that I would have checked the flop and called if it came back at one bet to me, folded if it came back at 3 bets to me, and considered calling 2 bets only after peeking to my left and seeing if anyone else was going to hit it. If it looked like someone was going to raise, I would have mucked it for 2 bets cold on the flop. I know the pot is big but it simply isn't big enough! I didn't like Tom's choice on the turn to take the heat. The pot held $560 before the flop plus $300 after the flop for a total of $860. The situation was clear on the turn. Tom KNEW he needed a king or ace on the river and also KNEW the betting would be capped on the turn. Few poker situations offer this kind of clarity! Tom had 4 cards to hit out of 46 remaining cards or 10 1/2-1 against to fill up. Tom could anticipate that his 3 remaining opponents would put in a total of $480 more on the turn to make the final equation $160 to win ($860+$480). He would be taking the worst of the bet even taking into account the bets he would earn on the river. This also assumes that one of the 3 players doesn't also hold AK!!! It was a great hand for 2 friends to discuss. Tom has become a better player over the last 6 years and looks at the game a lot closer these days. I stressed to Tom that I felt leading on the flop was his biggest error in the hand and that checking and then deciding was a much better plan in this situation. He agreed that his hand wasn't as good as it looked at first. Just my thoughts. GRANT PITTMAN | ||
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| Re: It's not as good as it looks., Highflyin3484k, 30. Dec 2003 11:29 | ||
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| I actually disagree here, I do not like a flop of KQJ with my AK. and 7 way?!?!?!?!?, I find it very hard to believe he has the best hand, you got to figure someone is calling with KQ, KJ, QJ, KK? QQ? JJ? 109s, A10, lord knows what.. and I really dont like the three bet here. | ||
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| Re: It's not as good as it looks., mkpoker, 30. Dec 2003 12:58 | ||
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| This is an interesting hand and (as usual) you're analysis is very insightful. With AKs in the SB and the betting capped before it reached me, I'd make the following observations: 1. I'm almost certainly behind PF to (at least one) high pair. It's possible I'm dominated by AA or KK, but it's still an easy call, as you note. Here, being suited is a huge advantage. 2. When the flop comes KQJ, it's nearly 100% certain you're behind, probably to two-pair or a set. This makes your AK a drawing hand (a gutshot + backdoor flush + 2 outs to trip Ks). And as a general rule in multi-way pots, you should check-call drawing hands and bet made hands. With zero chance of winning the pot by betting, a check is definitely the right play. 3. The turn A doesn't really help you. You've got four outs to win (A or K). Also, if a T hits at the river, the board will be the nuts, resulting in a 5-way chop ((I have no idea how to adjust the pot odds for this situation?!?) But, playing on the turn was a crystal clear pot odds calculation--and he didn't have the odds. He should have folded. | ||
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| Re: It's not as good as it looks., shorn, 30. Dec 2003 13:16 | ||
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| The easy answer to adjust your odds is to give yourself 1/5 of 4 outs. So, I would give myslef 8/18 of 1 out for the Ten on the river (not that I would have been around in this hand as I would likely have check-folded the flop). | ||
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| Re: It's not as good as it looks...Q for Grant, mkpoker, 30. Dec 2003 13:04 | ||
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| As noted above, it's likely you're behind pre-flop, either (marginally) to JJ or QQ or (significantly) to AA or KK. Still, it's an easy call as you noted, largely because of the nut-straight/nut-flush draw potential. Here's my question to you: If, in this game, you held AKo in the SB and the betting were capped before it reached you, what what you do? (If I respected the 3-bettor and capper, I'd probably muck) | ||
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| Re: It's not as good as it looks...Q for Grant, Highflyin3484k, 30. Dec 2003 13:09 | ||
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| you look at how many people are in the pot, you could flop a monster and the implied odds could be HUGE. I say capped to you in the SB at least 5 callers | ||
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| Re: It's not as good as it looks...Q for Grant, mkpoker, 30. Dec 2003 13:26 | ||
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| on 30. Dec 2003 13:09 Highflyin3484k wrote: > you look at how many people are in the pot, you could flop a monster and the implied odds > could be HUGE. I say capped to you in the SB at least 5 callers Actually, I disagree with your post. With AKo in a large multiway pot, the "implied odds" for a flopped monster are poor--because the "monsters" you could flop are transparent and easily readable. Anyone who did NOT flop the same monster would fold, killing your action. Let's say you flop AKK--a monster by any definition. Any big pair except AA will auto-fold (and AA has you beat!). Even a player with a gutshot draw (QJ), will probably fold, fearing a FH. AQ might give you action, but even they'd play a little scared, fearing a set of Ks. That's why (as strange as it sounds) a hand like JTs might be even better in a very large multi-way pot than AKo. JTs can make the nuts in many ways, and it's a bit less obvious than AK, helping you to collect a few extra bets down the road. | ||
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| Re: It's not as good as it looks...Q for Grant, Highflyin3484k, 30. Dec 2003 13:54 | ||
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| I agree good points, when I thought of monster I was posting fast w/ out thinking... say flop came A K 2, in a rammed and jammed pot, you could easily be up against a set, now that I think about it AK could be one of the worst hands to call with. give me QJ or J10 | ||
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| Re: It's not as good as it looks...Q for Grant, Goat, 5. Jan 2004 13:06 | ||
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| on 30. Dec 2003 13:26 mkpoker wrote: > on 30. Dec 2003 13:09 Highflyin3484k wrote: > > you look at how many people are in the pot, you could flop a monster and the implied odds > > could be HUGE. I say capped to you in the SB at least 5 callers > > Actually, I disagree with your post. With AKo in a large multiway pot, the "implied odds" for > a flopped monster are poor--because the "monsters" you could flop are transparent and easily > readable. Anyone who did NOT flop the same monster would fold, killing your action. > > Let's say you flop AKK--a monster by any definition. Any big pair except AA will auto-fold > (and AA has you beat!). Even a player with a gutshot draw (QJ), will probably fold, fearing a > FH. AQ might give you action, but even they'd play a little scared, fearing a set of Ks. > > That's why (as strange as it sounds) a hand like JTs might be even better in a very large > multi-way pot than AKo. JTs can make the nuts in many ways, and it's a bit less obvious than > AK, helping you to collect a few extra bets down the road. Most Excellent post! I hadn't thought about it that way but it does certainly make sense. If you did flop a monster in this situation with A/K is it a slowplay situation? Or do you just bet it straightforward and take down the pot? So, I'm assuming that w/ J/10s you would call in this situation most of the time? Goat | ||
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| Re: It's not as good as it looks...Q for Grant, mkpoker, 5. Jan 2004 14:42 | ||
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| on 5. Jan 2004 13:06 Goat wrote: > Most Excellent post! I hadn't thought about it that way but it does certainly make sense. If you > did flop a monster in this situation with A/K is it a slowplay situation? Or do you just bet it > straightforward and take down the pot? > > So, I'm assuming that w/ J/10s you would call in this situation most of the time? > Thanks. I'm glad you liked the post. To answer your question, holding AK with an AKK flop **after PF betting had been capped 7 ways** I'd bet out. The principle, is "when the pot gets big, take it down right away." Even though you'll probably win with a bet, it's possible you'll get calls from AX (hoping to pick up Aces full) or anyone chasing a flush draw. Both calls are incorrect, but you might as well give your opponents a chance to donate some more $$. On your second question, the answer is absolutely, I'd call 4-bets cold with JTs and 7-way action. Same for any high or medium suited-connector. Ideally, you'd like to enter these pots cheap, but the 7-way action more than compensates for the bets you'll need to put in. Then, if you don't hit the flop HARD, get out fast. | ||
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| Re: It's not as good as it looks...Q for Grant, grant pittman, 30. Dec 2003 13:17 | ||
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| mkpoker I would generally call with AK but with some players involved and raising I would be cautious. You really want to flop an ace and then do some praying with that many opponents. GRANT PITTMAN | ||
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| Had a girlfriend that wasn't as good as it looked :-), Roy Cooke, 30. Dec 2003 16:39 | ||
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| Had that issue with a girl once...She looked good, but she wasn't all that great to be with :-) Life is Good :-) Roy Cooke | ||
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| Re: Had a girlfriend that wasn't as good as it looked :-), KJo, 31. Dec 2003 11:49 | ||
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| Remember the old saying Roy, no matter how good she looks someone, somewhere is sick and tired of putting up with her shit :) Eli on 30. Dec 2003 16:39 Roy Cooke wrote: > Had that issue with a girl once...She looked good, but she wasn't all that great to > be with :-) > > Life is Good :-) > Roy Cooke | ||
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| Re: Had a girlfriend that wasn't as good as it looked :-), johnph77, 31. Dec 2003 17:31 | ||
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| Goes for poker hands AND women - be sure you know what you're marrying..... | ||
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