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Server Time: 10/11/2008 10:32:29 AM PACIFIC |
 Second best board Pair Problem, Richard Martone, 19. Dec 2003 10:17 | ||
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| This is on-line hold'em and this problem keeps coming up. I'm in late position and say I have Js/Ts, I call, the blinds check, there are six players. The flop comes Qd Th 6h. Everyone checks around to me. I look and have paired T's and straight draw and I figure everyone else has missed the flop or is on a draw, I bet have four players left. The turn comes 8c, everyone checks, I bet, three players. The river comes a 3d, checks around to me, I bet, one caller and he turn's up a Qh 5c. This guy has paired Q's on the flop but didn't bet, I cleared out the draw hands and he takes the pot. Now I can alway make notes of this guy and watch out for him next time but there are lots of them out there and I keep running into them. Any suggestions? | ||
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| Re: Second best board Pair Problem, mkpoker, 19. Dec 2003 11:00 | ||
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| This is a common problem, you're right. I would usually bet middle pair when checked-to from late position, but I wouldn't have on this particular hand. (I suspect that most UPFers will disagree and call me "weak-tight"...but that's what makes this board fun). Your flop (QdTh6h) is a "storm clouds on the horizon" kind of board. You shouldn't wait until it's raining on your head to get out of harm's way! With two face cards on the board, you could be facing gutshot draws (from AJ, KJ, or 89s) and/or open-end straight draws (from hands like KJ or J9). Flush draws are also possible, if not likely. With so many callers (6 in your case), you're also certainly facing overcards. And given the size of the pot, those overcards (particularly if coupled with a gutshot, like AJ) aren't going to fold to a single bet on the flop. You might already be behind to a player holding a Q. I think that's unlikely (although it turned out to be true), but it's possible. If so, you could have as many as 5 outs or as few as 0 (for the reasons described below). So let's look ahead to the turn and river.... First, you're in huge trouble if an A or K hits the board. That will likely make someone a higher pair (if not a str8) and will force you to fold to any meaningful interest in the pot. Second, you're in trouble if ANY heart hits the board. Someone could have made a flush...which means you'd be drawing dead. You can't be certain a heart would make a flush, but with 6 players, it's a definite worry. ...And finally, a J would actually HURT you hand by making str8s far more likely (putting TJQ on the board). Any 9 (maybe even any 8) is also potential str8 trouble. So...you're in trouble if any heart (11 cards) any A (3 cards), any K (3 cards), any J (3 cards), or any 9 (4 cards) hits the board. That's more than half the cards left in the deck! And if you do evade all of these trouble cards, you could lose to a weak Q (this is exactly what happened to you). (Whew, this turned into a long post...) But for me, the bottom line is this: Save your money for a better spot. If EITHER the board were less threatening or you faced fewer opponents, I'd play my middle pair more aggressively. But in this particular situation, I think there are too many risks to continue. ...(And now I'll await everyone calling me weak-tight). | ||
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| Re: Second best board Pair Problem, Richard Martone, 19. Dec 2003 11:10 | ||
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| One correction on your odds, if any 9 hit the board it would make my straight and there are a lot of if's, but the problem is what about the guy who just sits on the High pair and I seen them sit on a lot better cards. | ||
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| Re: Second best board Pair Problem, mkpoker, 19. Dec 2003 11:24 | ||
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| on 19. Dec 2003 11:10 Richard Martone wrote: > One correction on your odds, if any 9 hit the board it would make my straight and there > are a lot of if's, but the problem is what about the guy who just sits on the High pair > and I seen them sit on a lot better cards. A 9 would give you an open-end draw but not a made str8 (you held JT on a board of QT6, yes?) Fundamentally, I'm willing to take the risk of guy sitting on top pair (which, unfortunately, happened in your case), but when you add that risk to the flush and str8 risks on this flop, I think it's too many risks to bear. | ||
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| Re: Second best board Pair Problem, Flatout_Mainiac, 19. Dec 2003 11:17 | ||
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| Your opponent played the hand rather well as I assume he was the on the blind. He correctly read that you are a player like many players that will bet a weaker hand in LP if it is checked to you. Since he has a junk kicker there was no reason to bet for the possiblility that you might raise if you had a strong hand. So he shut it down and put it into check/call mode and since nothing really scary hit on the turn and river there really wasn't any reason for him to fold on your bet. I think the flop bet and turn bet are fine but your mistake was the river bet as it is unlikely that anyone will call with anything that you beat. | ||
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| Re: Second best board Pair Problem, Richard Martone, 19. Dec 2003 11:22 | ||
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| Thanks, that makes sense. | ||
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| Re: Second best board Pair Problem, Richard Martone, 19. Dec 2003 12:47 | ||
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| As I think of it, they do seem to come from the blinds. | ||
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| Re: Second best board Pair Problem, Wren, 19. Dec 2003 11:52 | ||
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| I agree with Flatout_Mainiac - I like the flop and turn bets (there's a pretty decent chance your hand's still good, and you're making the chasers pay) but checking the river is the best play. Quite a few players (especially at lower limits) will play their top pair, weak kicker hands in this manner (especially out of the blinds). on 19. Dec 2003 10:17 Richard Martone wrote: > This is on-line hold'em and this problem keeps coming up. I'm in late position > and say I have Js/Ts, I call, the blinds check, there are six players. The > flop comes Qd Th 6h. Everyone checks around to me. I look and have paired T's > and straight draw and I figure everyone else has missed the flop or is on a > draw, I bet have four players left. The turn comes 8c, everyone checks, I bet, > three players. The river comes a 3d, checks around to me, I bet, one caller and > he turn's up a Qh 5c. This guy has paired Q's on the flop but didn't bet, I > cleared out the draw hands and he takes the pot. Now I can alway make notes of > this guy and watch out for him next time but there are lots of them out there > and I keep running into them. Any suggestions? | ||
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| Re: Second best board Pair Problem, shorn, 19. Dec 2003 12:17 | ||
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| My suggestion would be once your flop bet is called, shut down unless you improve. Many players won't bet top pair/weak kicker, so if you are called, you are most likely beaten or there are others with draws that won't fold. If you had QJ, then by all means fire away...in that case you are probably in the lead and need to make folks pay. But, in the situation that you describe, you are the one who is most likely drawing, so if someone wants to give you a free card, let them. Also, keep in mind the number of opponents you have. I am much more apt to continue betting second pair into 1 or two opponents, but not 4. | ||
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| Re: Second best board Pair Problem, MozMan, 19. Dec 2003 12:23 | ||
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| Richard- Yeah, you will see this every so often in low limit games. What you have here is someone who is bad enough to pla a Q5o, but smart enough to realize that he could be out-kicked, so he's not betting because he thinks you might be on AQ or KQ and might raise. The thing to do is to try and think about why someone is calling you down. He's not going to call all of those bets with nothing. Of course, given the board, he could have been on a draw, but there is little you can do about that. -Moz "mmm.... piiiistol whip...." | ||
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