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Should I have paid for the draw, JLenart, 10. Dec 2003 09:23
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Late stages of a live NLHE Tournament. 50 started we're now down to 18. Payouts go 6 deep but everyone at the final table gets a $100 bonus. The Buy in was 100+10 plus one add on or rebuy for $50 which I did right from the start to have as many chips as I could from the get go.

Blinds are 500/1000 and my stack is about 28K. I get QQ UTG and I raise it up to 3000 all day and get one caller who is three to my left. I've played with him many times and know he's a tight player so I know that to call he has a hand. I also know he loves to smooth call with AA KK and AK.

The flop comes 10 7 3 all diamonds. I have the Q or Diamonds so I bet out 5K, without even thinking my opponent raises it to 10K. Now, knowing what I know about him I put him on AA with the Diamond, or KK with the diamond, maybe even the nuts. I think and think and fold figuring I was drawing dead. I do fold face up so he and everyone sees my laydown. He turns up 77 for a set. Should I have paid for the draw or was I right in my assumprtion that I was likely to be drawing dead?

I later talked with another friend who said my opponent loves middle sets and pops them big when he hits one on the flop. I wish I had know that then.

Given the stage of the tourney and that the pot was laying me more than 3 to 1 for the addtional 5K and I was 1.86 to complete my flush I'm now thinking taking the chance at it might have been the right choice. If the flush didn't come on the turn I would likely have been pot committed for the river and it's likely I would have busted out if the flush didn't complete. At best I'd have been severely crippled and would have been hard pressed to make the final table. Even folding that hand my chip position was still in good shape against the rest of the field and I was more than likely to make the final table . However If I had one that hand I'd have been in great shape probably in the top 3 chip wise.

So, I'm curious to know your thoughts on this. I hope I gave you all enough information for this discussion.

By the way I made the final and busted out 8th with a brutal run of ice cold cards blinding me out and was forced to go all in with K9s. The big stack called with 54o and he spiked his 4 on the river and I was out.

Thanks for your input,

John
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Re: Should I have paid for the draw, Risky Business, 10. Dec 2003 10:16
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Well written John, easy to follow. I think you got out cheap, because of the diamonds!
You're close enough to the money to wait, unless you are a play-to-win player.
From your own experience, you know he's not on a baby flush, so we'll disregard that.
He called your raise, which coupled with image, tells you a lot. Bluffing doesn't seem likely.

Unfortunately, I think he's going to raise no matter what. A raise tells you he has a higher pair, has a higher heart, or is done simply to find out where YOU are.

Fortunately for you, the board was scary enough to lay down the ladies. I don't think you would have folded if those cards weren't suited, do you?? He would have to hold AA or KK for you to be the underdog on a rainbow flop, and in that case, he may have re-raised preflop.

How do you feel about these comments?


on 10. Dec 2003 09:23 JLenart wrote:
> Late stages of a live NLHE Tournament. 50 started we're now down to 18. Payouts
> go 6 deep but everyone at the final table gets a $100 bonus. The Buy in was
> 100+10 plus one add on or rebuy for $50 which I did right from the start to
> have as many chips as I could from the get go.
>
> Blinds are 500/1000 and my stack is about 28K. I get QQ UTG and I raise it up
> to 3000 all day and get one caller who is three to my left. I've played with him
> many times and know he's a tight player so I know that to call he has a hand. I
> also know he loves to smooth call with AA KK and AK.
>
> The flop comes 10 7 3 all diamonds. I have the Q or Diamonds so I bet out 5K,
> without even thinking my opponent raises it to 10K. Now, knowing what I know
> about him I put him on AA with the Diamond, or KK with the diamond, maybe even
> the nuts. I think and think and fold figuring I was drawing dead. I do fold
> face up so he and everyone sees my laydown. He turns up 77 for a set. Should I
> have paid for the draw or was I right in my assumprtion that I was likely to be
> drawing dead?
>
> I later talked with another friend who said my opponent loves middle sets and
> pops them big when he hits one on the flop. I wish I had know that then.
>
> Given the stage of the tourney and that the pot was laying me more than 3 to 1
> for the addtional 5K and I was 1.86 to complete my flush I'm now thinking taking
> the chance at it might have been the right choice. If the flush didn't come on
> the turn I would likely have been pot committed for the river and it's likely I
> would have busted out if the flush didn't complete. At best I'd have been
> severely crippled and would have been hard pressed to make the final table.
> Even folding that hand my chip position was still in good shape against the rest
> of the field and I was more than likely to make the final table . However If I
> had one that hand I'd have been in great shape probably in the top 3 chip
> wise.
>
> So, I'm curious to know your thoughts on this. I hope I gave you all enough
> information for this discussion.
>
> By the way I made the final and busted out 8th with a brutal run of ice cold
> cards blinding me out and was forced to go all in with K9s. The big stack
> called with 54o and he spiked his 4 on the river and I was out.
>
> Thanks for your input,
>
> John
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Re: Should I have paid for the draw, KJo, 10. Dec 2003 14:03
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You should never draw in a NL Tournament, particularly when you may not win even if you make your hand. It was highly doubtful that your QQ was good on its own after the raise on the flop, and even if all he had was AK with one diamond, it still isn't worth playing when he not only has two chances to spike a diamond but has 6 outs to make a better pair.

Think of this- the only hand he could have that you can easily beat is JJ. If he has AK he ain't gonna raise unless one of them is a diamond. If he has AA or KK without a diamond you're the one drawing, and remember that ain't good. And if he has a set he has just as good a chance at filling up as you do making your flush. Good laydown.


Eli
on 10. Dec 2003 09:23 JLenart wrote:
> Late stages of a live NLHE Tournament. 50 started we're now down to 18. Payouts
> go 6 deep but everyone at the final table gets a $100 bonus. The Buy in was
> 100+10 plus one add on or rebuy for $50 which I did right from the start to
> have as many chips as I could from the get go.
>
> Blinds are 500/1000 and my stack is about 28K. I get QQ UTG and I raise it up
> to 3000 all day and get one caller who is three to my left. I've played with him
> many times and know he's a tight player so I know that to call he has a hand. I
> also know he loves to smooth call with AA KK and AK.
>
> The flop comes 10 7 3 all diamonds. I have the Q or Diamonds so I bet out 5K,
> without even thinking my opponent raises it to 10K. Now, knowing what I know
> about him I put him on AA with the Diamond, or KK with the diamond, maybe even
> the nuts. I think and think and fold figuring I was drawing dead. I do fold
> face up so he and everyone sees my laydown. He turns up 77 for a set. Should I
> have paid for the draw or was I right in my assumprtion that I was likely to be
> drawing dead?
>
> I later talked with another friend who said my opponent loves middle sets and
> pops them big when he hits one on the flop. I wish I had know that then.
>
> Given the stage of the tourney and that the pot was laying me more than 3 to 1
> for the addtional 5K and I was 1.86 to complete my flush I'm now thinking taking
> the chance at it might have been the right choice. If the flush didn't come on
> the turn I would likely have been pot committed for the river and it's likely I
> would have busted out if the flush didn't complete. At best I'd have been
> severely crippled and would have been hard pressed to make the final table.
> Even folding that hand my chip position was still in good shape against the rest
> of the field and I was more than likely to make the final table . However If I
> had one that hand I'd have been in great shape probably in the top 3 chip
> wise.
>
> So, I'm curious to know your thoughts on this. I hope I gave you all enough
> information for this discussion.
>
> By the way I made the final and busted out 8th with a brutal run of ice cold
> cards blinding me out and was forced to go all in with K9s. The big stack
> called with 54o and he spiked his 4 on the river and I was out.
>
> Thanks for your input,
>
> John
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