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Server Time: 2/13/2012 12:06:13 PM PACIFIC |
 Fishing the river with overcards, Boftx, 8. Dec 2003 16:23 | ||
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| Suppose you have a hand such as AQ, 5 players in an unraised pot, and a board of something like J82 rainbow. If the turn came down a rag, say a 5, wouldn't you be correct in staying to the river as long as there were at least 3 others in there with you? If my understanding is correct, you are about a 3.5:1 dog to make a pair by the river, and I think this would give you sufficient implied odds to go fishing if you think your big pair would be good. You would have 5 small bets pre-flop, giving you about 8:1 pot odds to call the flop depending on how many stay. You would then be geting about 7:1 to call the turn, which I think is correct odds, but even if you only get 6:1 or 5:1 I think you can count on 1 or 2 bets if you hit on the river. If this is correct, why should we be surprised when people stay and suck out on us? Jim | ||
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| Re: Fishing the river with overcards, jaustin, 8. Dec 2003 18:41 | ||
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| Because even if you hit, you'll lose a good amount of the time. Someone could already have trips or two pair leaving you either drawing dead or to runner-runner. Also, someone could be holding AJ, QJ, Ax (with the x paired), etc. With 3 people still in I'd say it's maybe 50/50 that you'll win if you hit one of your overcards, so you have to consider only half the pot in your odds, and that is almost never enough to justify the call. | ||
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| Re: Fishing the river with overcards, Flakes, 8. Dec 2003 21:16 | ||
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| Exactly what a player would be doing if he kept calling all those players on the turn just trying to hit a pair at the river... "Fishing". Even if you did hit your pair, you couldn't be sure that it would be any good, anyway; so forget about the implied odds because your outs could be tainted. You would only be guessing at that point and if you're going to grasp at straws trying to find reasons to call when you should be thinking about folding, then you're going to be continually dusting off alot of your chips in that spot. Flakes | ||
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| Re: Fishing the river with overcards, Mark Barnett II, 10. Dec 2003 11:38 | ||
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| as posted above rarely are you going to get the correct odds to call with 2 overcards unless you have something else going for you *backdoors* where authors advise you to call is where you have a chance to still have the best hand *and thats not going to happen very often with lots of preflop callers* Rule #1 of Poker Circumstances alter cases Rule #2 NEVER forget rule #1 | ||
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| Re: Fishing the river with overcards, Boftx, 10. Dec 2003 13:18 | ||
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| I am not suggesting that one *should* go fishing, but it seems to me that many of those who do so are actually getting close to correct odds by accident when there are 3 or 4 players left to see the river. It's a case of "Hey, this pot is big enough that I want to see another card" syndrome, I think. Or maybe just it's just a case of 1 or 2 too many beers. | ||
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| Re: Fishing the river with overcards, Mark Barnett II, 11. Dec 2003 09:57 | ||
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| the point i was trying to make is this is almost never a calling situation *without backdoor draws* you either bet/raise or fold, your playing wish poker to the extreme if you think you can outdraw 4 or more people *assuming it would take at least 4 other people in the pot to get the pot remotely large enough to justify the call with odds* lets take some examples your early position and someone bets in front of you and you call, someone behind you might raise your late position and have several callers ahead of you, what hands can they be calling with that arent ahead of you? *everyone has exactly one pair?* your late position with lots of players still to act since late bettor, check raiser maybe? if you spike your card are you going to be able to bet it? i think the risks outweigh the rewards but whats interesting is your right strict odds wise you may be justified in calling, but why are you pushing such a very slim edge if there is any edge at all? Rule #1 of Poker Circumstances alter cases Rule #2 NEVER forget rule #1 | ||
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