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Server Time: 1/8/2009 6:10:11 AM PACIFIC |
 Need to get to where I can lay this down?, Blade, 7. Dec 2003 02:11 | ||
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| I'm 3rd to act after blinds with AKo in a tighter than usual game. Its folded to me and I raise. I get 1 lp caller who is seeing the flop 69% of the time, other than that typical LL player from what I know. Both blinds call. Flop comes Kc Qc As.......I have Ac blinds check, I bet and LP raises, I reraise, LP caps. (AQ?, QQ? j10?) I call flop is 10d I check he bets and I raise....? A mistake undoubtedly but not horrible He reraises and I call? not sure what for at this point river is 2h I check call and he turns over J10o for the straight. I'm pretty dissapointed with my play here but I am torn between betting out on the turn and folding to a raise or just check calling the rest of the way. What about folding on the flop to the cap? | ||
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| Re: Need to get to where I can lay this down?, Blade, 7. Dec 2003 09:14 | ||
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| Well after sleeping on it here's what I have come up with. The LP had not shown any tendancy to be overly passive preflop so I think he would have reraised with AA, KK, QQ preflop. This really limits him to AQ & J10 (he see's 70% of flop so the preflop raise means very little) Having not shown any tendancy to be extremely over aggressive, I think his cap at the flop eliminates AQ as he surely would have to putting me on AA, KK, QQ or AK at that point and would most likely check call. Thus the only hand he could truly have at that point is J10 for the nuts. Which means I should have called the flop cap and saw the turn hoping to get on a flush draw or perhaps fill up. Once the turn brought no help folding would have been correct saving me 3 BB or an hours worth of work. Now if I can get to the point where I figure this out at a time when it actually helps....like say....during the hand........ Comments? | ||
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| Re: Need to get to where I can lay this down?, David Harris, 7. Dec 2003 09:48 | ||
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| When you bet into a board with a possible nut straight and are raised, that is usually an indication that someone made the straight. You have a possible full house but the expectation, of winning this particular pot, would seem to be negative. Folding the raise would have been my play. | ||
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| Re: Need to get to where I can lay this down?, Piers Majestyk, 7. Dec 2003 11:07 | ||
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| well when he caps the flop I am going to just check call the rest of the way, if he has J10 or another hand that beats my top two then he will just have to win the pot. I don't like your checkraise on the turn. This is similar to some of the last hands you posted with people 3 betting you or capping, at this limit they are not bluffing, they may very well have you beat but with top two I will say against most players you should continue to check call. I have been a victim of folding sets in more than 1 150+ pots in 36 games when the board showed 4 to a suit and I was bet into and called in another position only to be shown 2 pair after I had folded. When the pot was that big I probably should have called the last 6.00 but I didn't. People do some strange things in these limits online and if I have a set now or top two then I will just call them down and I am more than happy with the results thus far as people really like to bluff or bet with marginal hands it seems (which against me is usually not too productive as I am usually loaded for bear if I call your bet). Sure against 3 or 4 people showing alot of interest in the pot raising and such you can throw your hand away safely usually but heads up or against 2 opponents they are just going to have to show me that straight. Good luck. | ||
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| Re: Need to get to where I can lay this down?, Phish, 7. Dec 2003 11:29 | ||
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| Tough one here. I didn't like your checkraise on the turn. And when he reraised, it's pretty certain that he had a straight since your checkraise into that board would've looked a straight. But by that time, the pot is big enough to call for a four-outer. You could lay it down on the river, but I hate to go all that way with the pot offering you 15 to 1 return and folding top 2. I'd just make a crying call then. (One justification for making that crying call is what I call the 'idiot factor'. Anyone playing 70% of his hands is a bit of an idiot and you have to take into account the fact that he may be betting AQ thinking it's a monster. I remember a hand very similar to yours where I laid down trip As, with a four-liner out there and my usually passive opponent played his hand very strong and I detected no hints of bluffing. Turns out he had trip Ks and just wasn't even aware that someone with a T makes a straight.) | ||
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| Re: Need to get to where I can lay this down?, ekim2000, 8. Dec 2003 20:52 | ||
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| "What about folding on the flop to the cap?" c'mon You are going to flop top two and lay it down? Your check raise on the turn was probably incorect, but once all those additional bets went in, you were getting the right price for your 4 outer. The question is what are you going to do if you miss. Lets say you are planning to call him down, and there is a 90% chance he does have the straight for this example. You will make the boat .086%, and miss it 91%, but the times you miss it you still may have the best hand. So: (.086) (15) = 1.29 (.91)(.90)(2) = -1.62 (.91)(.10)(15) = 1.35 So the net would be 1.17 BB The 90% would be based on your knowledge of your opponent and his likely holdings based on mathematics. If you were 99% sure he had the straight, your expectation would be: -.37 BB I "usually" tend to call in these situations. Otherwise I will be second guessing myself for the next 17 hours, and worry if I laid down the best hand. This is a part of my game I am working on: being confident in my decisions and not allways having to be "shown". | ||
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