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Server Time: 12/1/2008 4:38:32 PM PACIFIC |
 Raising preflop for value, iceman5, 4. Dec 2003 15:07 | ||
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| I have a question regarding raising for value before the flop. These 2 examples are not plays that I make but Ive seen it done and wonder if its correct. #1..You are on the button with TT, JJ, or QQ. There are 4 or so limpers. I would just call but Ive seen many people raise. If you raise, the limpers are going to call so youre not doing it to eliminate anyone (maybe the blinds but the BB will probably call anyway). Now you are taking the flop 5 or 6 way. If any overcards fall, and there will usually be at least one, with that many players someone is going to connect with the overcard. If there are no overcards, you still arent going to win the pot immediatly because people will figure they have the odds to call with overcards (unless the player to your right bets and you raise making the rest of the field face 2 bets cold). Basically you still need a set to win. The basic rule is that with even small to middle PP's you can call if you can take the flop 5 way due to implied odds, so Ive heard some people say that if you can play the hand, that you could raise for value. Heres my problem with that theory: Yes you can call based on implied odds because if you hit the set you will be paid off handsomely, BUT...it seems to me that the extra bet that you and the rest of the filed is putting in before the flop has nothing to do with what you will collect later. In other words you wont win double just because you started with a double bet. It will take an extra bet 7.5 times to hit one set, but you only have 5 extra bets (5 way flop). Is this thinking correct? #2..is very similar. You are on the button with Axs. You can call if the pot is multiway, but why raise for "so called value". Your odds for hitting a flush are around 25-1 I believe, so why raise? If the kicker is a J or so that would be a different story because you could win with just the ace. Any comments? | ||
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| Re: Raising preflop for value, Blade, 4. Dec 2003 15:23 | ||
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| Aren't you basically saying in you two examples that you wouldn't raise with QQ from the botton but you would with AJs? | ||
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| Re: Raising preflop for value, Blue Sky, 4. Dec 2003 15:33 | ||
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| Iceman5, Bad day at the table buddy? The enitre posts sounds like your playing scared and like you have taken a couple of beats recently.... The entire reason for raising big pocket pairs, especially from the button position where you can raise even more hands, is to eliminate other players. Big pocket pairs play better shorthanded, its just simple math that they work out better this way as well as the added value from your show of strenght. This works well in tighter games. Sounds to me though that your playing in some loose games where no one respects a raise. In this particular style of game your right...big pocket pairs are nothing more then a drawing hand and your more then likely going to have to flop a set to be any good. Your probably better off seeing a flop for as little as possible with pocket pairs. From the button in loose games I prefer to see most of the flops for as little as possible, but sometimes will raise big suited connectors as much for the value to the pot but also to throw off my opponents. I know I didn't answer all of your questions hopefully others will help out with more of the advanced math work and theory but I hope this helps. | ||
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| Re: Raising preflop for value, Blade, 4. Dec 2003 15:49 | ||
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| I completely disagree here. Regardless of the game you are favored to win with these large PP. This does not mean you will the majority of the hands, closer to 33%, but you are still favored individually over the other opponents. This is why you are raising here regardless of whether or not some one folds. 10 handed game you have QQ buttton. 6 people see the flop, you didn't raise 6 * 1/2 bb = 3bb you win 33% = 1 bb earned 10 handed game you have qq button 6 people see the flop, you raise 6 * 1bb = 6bb you win 33% = 2 bb earned You are making 1 for 1 on your money And this does not factor in the affects of being aggressive on you chances to win. | ||
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| Re: Raising preflop for value, Blue Sky, 4. Dec 2003 16:37 | ||
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| Blade, I'm not saying to flat call with these hands, as a matter of fact I'm probably one of the most aggressive players you will ever meet, I never just call a bet. I feel that any hand I'm going to play is the winner or soon will be and is worth a raise. What I was speaking to, in regards to not raising big pocket pairs, is in ultra loose games (mostly LL games, but they can be found at any level.) The odds of big pp's not holding up increases based on the number of opponents your against and in these loose games you will have anywhere between 4 to 9 players seeing the river card. Usually at a minimum you will need two pair or better to win in these games. You have to keep in mind that every card that appears on the board has the possibility of making a hand for one of your opponents no matter how ugly it is....gutshots, runner runner, etc. You have to adapt to every situation you face in poker, Manaics vs. calling stations, loose vs. tight tables, underfunded vs. overfunded opponents...there isn't a one size fits all answer to any poker problem we face in a given session or lifetime...so don't be so quick to throw out a one size fits all answer, re-read my post and you'll see that I gave specific information to specific games... | ||
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| Re: Raising preflop for value, Blade, 4. Dec 2003 16:51 | ||
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| Yeah I understand what you are saying but I still think you are losing money by not raising even in those ultra loose games. Sure you will most likely need to improve but so do your opponents and while together they are a favorite over you, you are most likely still going to win more hands there than anyone opponent. At that point getting a 5-1 return (5 callers ahead of you) is an amazing return on investment assuming you are going to win more often than 1 in 5 times (20%). My own simulations (4,000,000 hands) of a ultra loose passive table (avg 5.5 callers) show that there can be a positive EV of raising with a hand as low as QJo from the button. | ||
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| Re: Raising preflop for value, iceman5, 4. Dec 2003 16:41 | ||
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| Blade said: The entire reason for raising big pocket pairs, especially from the button position where you can raise even more hands, is to eliminate other players. Big pocket pairs play better shorthanded, its just simple math that they work out better this way as well as the added value from your show of strenght. This works well in tighter games. I realize that you normally raise with high PP's to eliminate players, but Im talking about raising after you have 4-5 limpers. They will almost never fold after calling one bet already. The BB is now getting about 10-1 so he will call if he has anything decent. Raising to eliminate players isnt what Im talking about. Theres no way to get shorthanded in this situation. I should have left out QQ. I guess Im really talking about TT or JJ. | ||
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| Re: Raising preflop for value, Boftx, 4. Dec 2003 15:34 | ||
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| Why would you *not* raise with QQ. JJ, or TT from the button if all limp to you? Heck, I re-raise with those, certainly QQ. You will indeed fold off a certain number of limpers, including the blinds, especially the SB. Yes, those with overcards will likely call you, but many of the Q9, J9 type hands will fold, as will *some* Kx types. There is nothing that says every flop must contain a paint. You can play very aggressive with paintless flops and drive out KX and even Ax. You have the added value of raising with these will get you more action on your AA/KK raises in the future. If you play 6-handed games then these hands quite often become monsters for you. As for Axs, you have essentially the same odds of geting a suited flop as you do a set. And again, the raise (which here I think is wrong) will succeed in driving out some limpers as before. When you get your suited flop the "free-card" play is almost automatic at that point. Or not depending on how you wish to play it. I think you are giving up a lot of extra money if you don't raise with those pairs at least some of the time. Jim | ||
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| Re: Raising preflop for value, iceman5, 4. Dec 2003 16:47 | ||
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| Boftx said: As for Axs, you have essentially the same odds of geting a suited flop as you do a set. And again, the raise (which here I think is wrong) will succeed in driving out some limpers as before. When you get your suited flop the "free-card" play is almost automatic at that point. Or not depending on how you wish to play it. I could be wrong but I think the odds of flopping 2 of your suit are about 12-1 where a set is 7.5-1. And again, raising after lipmers will not get those same limpers to fold. Obvliously if I was in EP or MP this would be a whole different ballgame and I would most definatley raise. | ||
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| Re: Raising preflop for value, Boftx, 4. Dec 2003 16:57 | ||
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| From the "odds" link at the bottom of this site, under the Hold'em Basic Data section: "If you hold a Pair, at least one more of that kind will Flop: 7.51 to 1" "If you hold two suited cards, two or more of that suit will Flop: 7.48 to 1" | ||
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| Re: Raising preflop for value, Blade, 4. Dec 2003 17:12 | ||
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| I wonder if raising preflop here gives you the odds to see the turn as well. If you dont raise there are 7 to 8 bets in preflop with 6- 7 opponents if you do raise there are either 14 to 16 bets in (assuming all impers call) with 5-7 opponents if you miss but your are pretty sure a set on the turn would win, and the flop is bet and not raised to you with eveyone calling there would be an additional 5 sb to you making it about 20. I believe you have a 1:23 shot of hitting the straight at this point on the turn with the BB rounds in front and plenty of callers to increase the implied odds. Furthermore there is a chance even in these loose games that raising from LP will get you a free card either by it missing everyone, buttom and middle pair not betting, or someone trying to check raise Either way I still think its about 99% raise there preflop with AA-JJ, 10,10 I think is a good arguement either way | ||
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| Re: Raising preflop for value, Boftx, 4. Dec 2003 17:27 | ||
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| This part of the thread probably belongs in the odds section, but.... From the "ODDS" link again: "If you have a Pair after the Flop at least one more of that kind will turn up (on the last two cards): 10.9 to 1" Given the above, it would appear that you have plenty of pot odds, about 20:1 as you pointed out, to call the flop, and *if you keep 10.9:1 as working odds* you are justified to call the turn too, even though the odds on the river itself would be about 22:1. Is the above a correct viewpoint? That is, should you work with the odds for each street seperately or combined? Hmmm, taking a better approach, you have *about* 10 BB after the flop betting in the pot, and can expect another 3BB by the end of the turn, and maybe another 2BB by the showdown. You will need to add 1 BB at the turn to get there. 13BB to 1BB at the turn would seem to be more than sufficient implied odds to go ahead and call both flop AND turn to get the set by the river. All this assumes there are no raises on the turn. Jim | ||
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| Re: Raising preflop for value, iceman5, 4. Dec 2003 18:12 | ||
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| Ok, I was wrong about it being 12-1. But I found the section you quoted saying its 7.48-1, but another section says if you have AdKd, the odds against flopping 2 diamonds is 8.14-1. What gives? Anyway, the reason this came up was that in example #2, I said Ive seen people "raise for value" on the button with Axs after 4-5 limpers. Even if you flop 2 of your suit, you still need another one. So the odds of hitting the flush are more like 14 or 15-1. It would be hard to believe nobody else has an ace. So flopping an ace will probably cost you money. | ||
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| Re: Raising preflop for value, Boftx, 4. Dec 2003 18:38 | ||
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| *IF* you flop your suit, then you are about only a 2:1 dog to get your nut flush by the river and you have more than enough pot odds, let alone implied odds, to go fishin for it on turn and river cards. And again, if your opponents start thinking you raise with weak A's, not realizing the value of a suited A, then you are way ahead on your monster hands. Jim | ||
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| Re: Raising preflop for value, iceman5, 4. Dec 2003 19:03 | ||
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| Boftx, you and I are obviously on different wavelengths on this discussion. I guess Im not conveying my point very well. Just about anytime you flop the nut flush draw you will have the odds to go all the way. But think about it from the beginning. You are on the button with A6s. There are 4 limpers. I would definately play, but Im trying to discuss the downside of raising. You probably wont win with just an ace and could actually lose quite a bit if you do flop an ace. So you really need hit a flush. Since the odds are 14 or 15-1 to complete the hand with a flush, why not wait until you flop 2 of your suit to do your raising? I think you are overestimating the value of the deception since most times nobody will see what you raised with. My original point was that you are only getting 5-1 on your raise when the odds that you will win are quite a bit worse. I wasnt saying that I wouldnt play it at all. | ||
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| Re: Raising preflop for value, Boftx, 5. Dec 2003 10:20 | ||
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| on 4. Dec 2003 19:03 iceman5 wrote: > Boftx, you and I are obviously on different wavelengths on this discussion. I guess Im not conveying my point > very well. Just about anytime you flop the nut flush draw you will have the odds to go all the way. But > think about it from the beginning. You are on the button with A6s. There are 4 limpers. I would definately > play, but Im trying to discuss the downside of raising. You probably wont win with just an ace and could > actually lose quite a bit if you do flop an ace. So you really need hit a flush. Since the odds are 14 or > 15-1 to complete the hand with a flush, why not wait until you flop 2 of your suit to do your raising? I > think you are overestimating the value of the deception since most times nobody will see what you raised with. > My original point was that you are only getting 5-1 on your raise when the odds that you will win are quite a > bit worse. I wasnt saying that I wouldnt play it at all. Ok, quite possibly we are. I get the impression from your posts that you only raise with premium hands and do this consistently enough that if I were in your game I could predict your hand fairly well. I can obviously be wrong in this. You are absolutely right about A6, suited or not, not being a good bet to take down the pot based on the A or 6 pairing. Where we disagree is how we view the flush draw potential of Axs. As for the deception value, they will certainly see it when you do make the flush :-) There will always be 1 or 2 players that are actually paying attention to the game and notice this. The others will continue to donate. Anyway, I think we have had a good discussion on this. Jim PS - I just read shorn's post and he has managed to convey my thoughts *much* more clearly. | ||
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| Re: Raising preflop for value, Brian462, 4. Dec 2003 19:00 | ||
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| Pairs QQ-77 do have SOME chance of winning unimproved in 5-7 handed pots. If you have 5 callers you are almost getting enough to raise if you were only going for a set and I believe the chance you have of winning unimproved more than makes up for the difference. There is also a small chance of receiving a free card(that whole check to the raiser thing that some people love), which in some instances might result in you making your set. You also can push out the small and big blind in some instance which will result in a higher win rate for you. These things are small but they all add up to make what I think is a profitable pre-flop raise. | ||
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| Re: Raising preflop for value, shorn, 5. Dec 2003 05:08 | ||
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| In the first situation, the "value" comes in three forms: (1) when you do flop your set, your additional 1/2 BB invested will potentially win a bigger pot for you. (2) Your raise indicates some strength so if a scary board comes when you hold JJ (say AT7), you might be able to get a free card because everyone will check to you on the flop. This is always good. (3) If you do hit a Jack on the flop, not that many people will put you on JJ because of your raise or a four flush (if you played Axs with a button raise), so they are more likely to call your bets/raises because you have disguised your hand for later streets. I think Sklansky says "this type of raise encourages your opponents to call you when they should fold if they knew what you had." Bottom line, this type of raise is a semi-bluff raise that helps you to vary your play so that it makes it more diffoicult for opponents to read your hand. If you never bluff, you are giving away too much information. Add to that the other collateral benefits discussed above, and this type of value raise needs to be in the arsenal of every good player. | ||
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| Re: Raising preflop for value, iceman5, 5. Dec 2003 12:48 | ||
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| Very good discussion. shorn, I think your post may have enlightened me to the reason behind this raise (mainly the possible free card). Although if I had limped with AJ and the flop was AT7, I wouldnt check to the raiser unless I was the first limper and knew that if it got checked to him and he bet, I could raise to thin out the field. If I was on the raisers right and it had been checked to me, I would bet. I agree with what you are saying now though. Im still not convincev about raising with Axs though, unless the kicker was good enough. | ||
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| Re: Raising preflop for value, Smokey27, 5. Dec 2003 08:46 | ||
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| I think you need to move the question from the button to the big blind. On the button you have the opportunity to know the k5,k7 etc blind hands out that might hurt you with there lone overcard. Also raising may get you a free turn card. With 10-10 thru QQ if you raise preflop and do have an overpair good/great players will fold overcards on your flop bet being conerned you have their hand dominated, bad players will call do to the pot odds. Finally with a pretty good pair dont you want to get your money in before you see an overcard? One last note if the flop is 6-8 handed and raised by me with say jj on the button if the flop comes k48 no suites and the small blind leads out I may try for the free card on the turn&river by raising. You are getting nearly enough odds to do this, there is a slight chance the sb has Ace8 and your hand is good. just my thoughts, i play my pairs pretty agressively if there is a crowd (odds for a set) or small field (win unimproved) Raising on the button can mae a lot of good things happen. Axs is not worth raisng with. it is not a very good hand. You will not fold a bigger ace and you have about a 4-6% chance of building a flush which is probably only good 75% of the time due to a paired board | ||
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| Re: Raising preflop for value, noiseboy, 5. Dec 2003 09:06 | ||
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| One thing you are neglecting to mention is that your raise with a medium PP might also buy you a free turn card to hit your set when everyone "checks to the raiser" which is quite valuable when overcards have fallen and you don't want to bet. Let's say that someone with AK flops a K or A, but checks it expecting you to bet so he can raise and thin the field, but then you check getting a free chance to turn a set. Also, when you do flop the set, the pot is larger in the beginning, so people tend to stick around and chase you, thus building a much larger pot than if you had just limped. This is a double edged sword as sometimes they will catch you, but you still have to be happy whenever there is more money going into the pot when you have a set. Also, you are betting your position so that if you really feel that nobody has anything, which sometimes happens, you have the option of betting your second pair, usually not a good idea, but sometimes you just know that nobody has anything. | ||
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| Re: Raising preflop for value, LJH, 5. Dec 2003 13:07 | ||
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| iceman, in the hand you describe, there is no value for you to raise on. just call and if overcards come you can get away from the hand. ljh | ||
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| Re: Raising preflop for value, iceman5, 5. Dec 2003 13:19 | ||
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| Man oh man, I was just starting to be swayed into thinking a raise is better and then LJH agrees with my original opinion. | ||
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| Re: Raising preflop for value, mfs, 6. Dec 2003 00:40 | ||
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| In this situation, I would raise with all of these hands if I knew that I could make the blinds fold and have position over the rest of the field.The time to limp with these hands, especially with TT and JJ is in early position unless you think a raise will limit the field to just one or two other players. With pocket QQ I almost always raise unless I am at an ultra loose table in which case I would limp. | ||
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| Re: Raising preflop for value, Phish, 7. Dec 2003 13:24 | ||
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| > so Ive heard some people say that if you can play the hand, that you could raise > for value. Heres my problem with that theory: Yes you can call based on implied > odds because if you hit the set you will be paid off handsomely, BUT...it seems > to me that the extra bet that you and the rest of the filed is putting in before > the flop has nothing to do with what you will collect later. In other words you > wont win double just because you started with a double bet. It will take an > extra bet 7.5 times to hit one set, but you only have 5 extra bets (5 way flop). > Is this thinking correct? Yes, your thinking is correct, with one minor wrinkle. The reason you'd raise here is because you want to make the pot bigger so that if you flop your set, people will be more inclined to chase you with overcards or bottom pairs (drawing dead) or gut shots. So this raise would actually have the effect of increasing your implied odds. The flip side, of course, is that you can make the pot big enough so that you should now call the flop hoping for a two-outer. But overall, the benefits outweight the disadvantages, unless you're really keen on reducing your variance, in which case calling would be preferable. | ||
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| Re: Raising preflop for value, Mark Barnett II, 12. Dec 2003 11:38 | ||
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| arent both of these situations variance issues? PP raise before the flop, get more money in the pot for when you get your set. possibly buy a free card on the turn after you bet the flop *assuming checked to you* get sufficient odds to call the turn maybe and of course might win the pot outright if undercards flop. AXs can also flop 2 pair and three of a kind along with 4 flush. after the flop you should have a good idea where your heading and can play appropriatly what im getting from the pro raise side is, in general you have a positive expectation on the hand before the flop why not use/abuse that as much as you can *unfortunately variance goes up* what im getting from the con side is why do i want to raise a hand that has a small chance of winning the hand *even though better than average* *keep variance down* Rule #1 of Poker Circumstances alter cases Rule #2 NEVER forget rule #1 | ||
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