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Server Time: 8/30/2008 6:21:44 AM PACIFIC |
 Yet another Bellagio bust-out hand, Mark Gregorich, 3. Dec 2003 23:40 | ||
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| I played the limit hold'em tourney at Bellagio today. It was a strange tournament for me, as it seemed that being all-in was a prerequisite for winning a hand. I think I was 7 for 7 for awhile, and wound up 7 for 8. Although I didn't necessarily get my chips in great on the seven hands I won (today won't go down very highly on my all time great tournaments played list), it is the 8th and final all-in that I wish to present. Playing $500-$1000 with $250-500 blinds, the player next to the button goes all-in for $800. I am the button with 44. I have $1300, enough to make a full raise. I decide to do so, hoping this provides enough incentive for the blinds to fold. Unfortunately, the big blind with a decent but not huge stack deliberates and then calls with J-8 offsuit, which naturally busts both of us (the initial raiser had K-9). My thinking: I perceived that I was a small favorite in the pot against the initial raiser (his most probable holding was overcards), and I thought I had just enough chips to raise out the blinds, allowing us to play for that dead money as well as our bets. With my stack, the $750 in blind money was quite significant. Obviously, I misjudged the big blinds capabilities to call with a weaker hand (I'm not criticizing though, as he saw an opportunity to take out 2 players without a huge risk to himself). In hindsight, I suppose I could have waited. However, I didn't have much time to wait, and there are no guarantees that I would find a better situation, all things considered. In general, I don't like pinning my tournament hopes on small pairs - they tend to be at best small favorites to win the pot, and are frequently big underdogs. This is especially true when I'm not the first one in the pot (it is hugely important to give yourself 2 ways to win the hand - either everyone folds, or you end up with the best hand; and I didn't have this working for me in this case). Mark | ||
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| Re: Yet another Bellagio bust-out hand, Schuster, 3. Dec 2003 23:58 | ||
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| The big blind is going to be getting about 4 to 1 to bust 2 players out... unless his hand is absolutely wretched or calling the extra 700 is a big threat to his stack, I'd have to figure he's going to come in. You are on the button, so you do have a few more hands to try to pick something up. You weren't sure you were going to see a better spot, of course, but you never know. I disagree with your play here. At best you're marginally +EV but a higher risk of busting out due to the 3 way action. I'd rather take situation where I might be a slight underdog in a heads up pot later but with a better chance of survival. What do you think Mark, would you make the same play again in similar circumstances? Lee | ||
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| Re: Yet another Bellagio bust-out hand, Risky Business, 4. Dec 2003 06:47 | ||
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| I prefer waiting for 2 high cards instead of low pairs in this particular situation, because ANY hand you play is getting called by stacks that size. I do like the play for the dead money though. That was the only reason in trying it, to get nearly twice as much as the original $800 bet. Learning from this..........if you can catch a small pair at the moment when the blinds stacks are small enough to scare out, you might find them to have the mindset of "you 2 fight it out", and toss their blinds. p.s. That was me doing the learning there, not you 2. :) on 3. Dec 2003 23:58 Schuster wrote: > The big blind is going to be getting about 4 to 1 to bust 2 players out... unless his > hand is absolutely wretched or calling the extra 700 is a big threat to his stack, > I'd have to figure he's going to come in. You are on the button, so you do have a > few more hands to try to pick something up. You weren't sure you were going to see a > better spot, of course, but you never know. I disagree with your play here. At best > you're marginally +EV but a higher risk of busting out due to the 3 way action. I'd > rather take situation where I might be a slight underdog in a heads up pot later but > with a better chance of survival. What do you think Mark, would you make the same > play again in similar circumstances? > > Lee | ||
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| Re: Yet another Bellagio bust-out hand, Mark Gregorich, 4. Dec 2003 09:56 | ||
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| Not sure I'd do the same thing next time. I really hate playing an all-in pot with a small pair when I know the hand will play out (in this case, I liked it ONLY if my $800 raise could eliminate the blinds, but this apparantly wasn't going to happen). The problem with small pairs against someone who has already entered the pot is that I am at best a miniscule favorite should he have two overcards, and am in deep trouble if he has an overpair. Mark | ||
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| Re: Yet another Bellagio bust-out hand, Roy Cooke, 4. Dec 2003 09:54 | ||
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| Hi Mark I like the play....The blind didn't have to call and you are in desperate straights here....You need to win a pot soon and if the blind doesn't call you have a second shot! Life is Good :-) Roy Cooke on 3. Dec 2003 23:40 Mark Gregorich wrote: > I played the limit hold'em tourney at Bellagio today. It was a strange > tournament for me, as it seemed that being all-in was a prerequisite for winning > a hand. I think I was 7 for 7 for awhile, and wound up 7 for 8. > > Although I didn't necessarily get my chips in great on the seven hands I won > (today won't go down very highly on my all time great tournaments played list), > it is the 8th and final all-in that I wish to present. > > Playing $500-$1000 with $250-500 blinds, the player next to the button goes > all-in for $800. I am the button with 44. I have $1300, enough to make a full > raise. I decide to do so, hoping this provides enough incentive for the blinds > to fold. Unfortunately, the big blind with a decent but not huge stack > deliberates and then calls with J-8 offsuit, which naturally busts both of us > (the initial raiser had K-9). > > My thinking: I perceived that I was a small favorite in the pot against the > initial raiser (his most probable holding was overcards), and I thought I had > just enough chips to raise out the blinds, allowing us to play for that dead > money as well as our bets. With my stack, the $750 in blind money was quite > significant. Obviously, I misjudged the big blinds capabilities to call with a > weaker hand (I'm not criticizing though, as he saw an opportunity to take out 2 > players without a huge risk to himself). > > In hindsight, I suppose I could have waited. However, I didn't have much time > to wait, and there are no guarantees that I would find a better situation, all > things considered. In general, I don't like pinning my tournament hopes on > small pairs - they tend to be at best small favorites to win the pot, and are > frequently big underdogs. This is especially true when I'm not the first one in > the pot (it is hugely important to give yourself 2 ways to win the hand - either > everyone folds, or you end up with the best hand; and I didn't have this working > for me in this case). > > Mark > | ||
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| Re: Yet another Bellagio bust-out hand, Formless, 4. Dec 2003 10:18 | ||
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| I think you picked the right spot to make this play for the reasons you stated. The key is the dead money, you are probably 11/10 versus the raiser but have a good chance to isolate and get the blind money. You are critical in chips so this is your D-Day. It's only an (arguably) slightly bad play if you had a good feeling you would get called by the blinds, and I'm guessing you are about 30% equity even if you get called and it goes 3 ways to the river, but I'm not sure about that. | ||
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| Re: Yet another Bellagio bust-out hand, noiseboy, 4. Dec 2003 10:53 | ||
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| I'd be quite happy to see those 44s in your spot. They do pretty well heads-up, which is what you were trying to acheive, and you really didn't have much longer to wait for the semblance of a hand. The person coming into the pot before you was reaching the point of desperation as well, and wouldn't necessarily need much to enter a pot when it's folded to him. A lot would depend on my read of the blind players and their stack sizes. The ideal would be to have players that just seem to be on cruise control to make the money so that they would be more likely to lay it down for the 3-bet. | ||
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| Re: Yet another Bellagio bust-out hand, LJH, 6. Dec 2003 13:42 | ||
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| MARK, YOU HAVE TO TAKE INTO CONSIDERATION ALL PLALYERS AFTER YOU BEFORE YOU GO ALL IN. BESIDES 4'S ARE NOT WORTH GOING ALL IN ANYWAY. LJH | ||
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