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Server Time: 12/1/2008 5:02:49 PM PACIFIC |
 loose passive blind stealing, Smokey27, 3. Dec 2003 09:09 | ||
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| I came up with a standard for blind stealing in the low limit loose passive games I play (2/4 3/6 at partypoker) My assumptions: Every Ace is played, players will call from blinds with any ace or pair You are on button or cutoff what hand do you need to attack For the cut off there are three players yet to act and the odds they have a pair is 3/17 or 17.6%. The odds any player has an ace (remeber that since we assume all aces are played we rule out aces in your two cards and the 12 cards of previous players who folded) is 4/38*4/37*4/36*4/35*4/34*4/33= 67.8%. So in a loose passive game where every ace is played and every pair psi played if you raise from the cutoff with say KQ you have a 85.4% chance of being called by a better hand. Using the same calcuation the buttons chances are 11.7% chance a blind has a pair, and 46% chance that a blind has an ace., for a total chance of 57.7% that KQ is not the best hand preflop. Does anyone thing my numbers are wrong? From doing these caluclations I now only attack the blinds with ACe 10o or better, Ace 8s or better and medium pairs. I am not sure what to do with kq,k10,and kj. These numbers would lead me to believe a fold or maybe limping in are best, I know position is great and you have the added value of everytime they do surrender you win the blinds but in the end I think if you raise with KQ and are called you don't have the best hand and need a K or Q on the flop with no ace to feel confident about your hand which happens only about 25% of the time. I greatly anticipate any thoughts on this. | ||
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| Re: loose passive blind stealing, rambler, 6. Dec 2003 05:09 | ||
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| I would be careful about playing to preconceived fixed strategies. It would all depend on if your assumptions are true. I would think that if their were any decent players in the game they would pick up on what you were raising wiht and they would reraise and punish you bitterly. A lot of players seem to only raise preflop with premium hands which wuold limit it too Aces with a face card or a high pair. So at first glance it would seem a bit loose for my taste as the danger of being reraised with better hands is too high. Although like everything it would come down to reading the game situation. I hate to think of the consequences of misreading and playing this strategy but if the game lets' you get away with it then you might have somehting. | ||
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| Re: loose passive blind stealing, Smokey27, 7. Dec 2003 19:29 | ||
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| this is concering blind steals from the cutoff or button where every prevous player has passed. I have noticed in the low limits that I play that I have notes on nearly every player for playing any ace. Therefore if I am on the button and everyone before me folded I know they did not recieve an ace and there is an increased chance that one of the blinds has an ace. In this position you are in a raise or fold situation. Your opponents, the good ones at least, know this and are to some extent in a reraise or fold situation after you raise. From the calcuations I have made I feel that many players mistakinly attack the blinds with light hands. From my math you need Ace ten or so to have an above average hand from the cutoff or button to play considering the possiblity that the blinds have a pair or ace. Maybe reread my original post and think about being on the button and everyone folding to you. I am saying that mathmatically KQ is less than fifty fifty to be the best hand becuase of the higher likelyhood of the blinds having an ace. I believe T.J. Cloutier and Tom Mcevoy use the term 'bunching' for this situation. | ||
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