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Should have bet?, mfs, 3. Dec 2003 01:18
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I was playing at a typical 4-8 holdem game. In late position I get pocket eights one off the button. Four people limp, I call(I think I should have raised) and everyone else calls with eight people seeing the flop. The flop comes A72 rainbow. Everyone checks to me, I consider betting but then think its highly probable that someone has an ace. I checked(should I have bet?) as did everyone else. A Jack hits the turn and the BB bets out (He is a solid tight aggressive player). Everyone except one other player folds. Bottom line:the BB wins the hand holding J6 suited.

How would you have played this hand?

I think I should have raised preflop, then bet on the flop if checked too me.Then reevaluate my situation on the turn depending on who and how many people were still in. If two or more people called my flop bet I would probably check after the Jack hit the turn. If only one person called I would fire again hopeing to win right there or at least set up a free showdown.

In situations like this how often can you expect someone to be holding an ace?

Thanks.
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Re: Should have bet?, 4 POKER, 3. Dec 2003 01:52
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Hi-

With four limpers in already I would have raised with 8-8 being one off the button. One, you may be able to at least "buy the button" and get one or both the blinds to fold. Two, the button and/or the blinds having a hand that they could 3 bet you with is not all that likely - so when you do make the raise, you give yourself a better chance of acting last postflop, and you also add some deception to your hand if it hits with only costing yourself one extra small bet to do so. (a preflop value raise). And you can fold your hand if it doesn't hit you strong enough - and you're in a good position to see where the action comes from, too.

Okay, so you chose to limp. When the flop comes up rainbow with an Ace and two unders, when everyone checked it, I would have bet. If you get called, you proceed from there, but you give yourself the chance to win the pot without having to see the turn and you collect all those small bets. By not betting the flop, you invite anyone to take the pot away from you on the turn and you will have a harder time telling where you stand with your pair, and you also allow for any of the dangerous overcards to hit as well; if nobody held an Ace.

Now of course when the turn brings another over (Jack), and "Mr. Tight-Guy" bets out from the BB, it's a clear fold for you.


4P-
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Re: Should have bet?, ADAM THE EXPERT, 3. Dec 2003 05:37
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OK YES, YOU SHOULD HAVE RAISED, BUT NOT FOR THE

REASON YOU THINK.

WITH A PAIR AS SMALL AS EIGHTS, (IN SMALL HOLD ME, WITH

TONS OF CALLERS) YOU CANNOT REALISTICALLY EXPECT

TO WIN, WITHOUT A SET (OR STRAIGHT) SO, WHEN YOU

RAISE, YOU ARE ONLY BUILDING UP THE POT, TO ATTRACT

CALLERS, WHEN YOU FLOP A SET.


WITH ALL THOSE CALLERS, YOU ARE GETTING THE

REQUIRED POT ODDS, TO FLOP A SET. PLUS, BY

MAKING THE POT LARGE ENOUGH TO INCREASE THE

IMPLIED ODDS YOU'LL GET, WHEN YOU FLOP A SET.


NOW, WHEN YOU HAVE EVERYONE IN. AND YHOU

FLOP SECOND PAIR, THE PROBIHILLBILLITY

(ANOTHER NEW WORD, COINED BY ADAM THE EXPERT)

OF SOMEONE HOLDING ACE ACE, IS OVERWHELMING.

SO, YOU HAVE A CHECK AND FOLD SITUATION.


HERE IS A SIMPLE FORMULA FOR DETERMINING THE

ODDS, OF SOMEONE HOLDING AN ACE (OR ANY SPECIFIC

CARD)

IT IS ONLY ABOUT 90% ACCURATE, SO MATH EXPERTS,

DON'T START RAGGING ON ME.


IT'S MORE IMPORTANT TO HAVE FORMULAS THAT ARE

EASY TO USE, AND EASY TO REMEMBER, THAN IT IS

TO BE EXACT, PROVIDING THAT THE FORMULA

IS "MOSTLY ACCURATE"


FOR EACH OPPONENT, THERE IS "ABOUT" A 12%

CHANCE, PER PLAYER, OF SOMEONE HOLDING A PARTICULAR

CARD.


(REMEMBER, THIS IS NOT 100% ACCURATE, AS WITH

9 OPPONENTS, IT'S IMPOSSIBLE FOR THERE TO BE

A 108% CHANCE, THAT THEY HAVE ONE.


BUT, IT'S REASONABLE ACCURATE, AND PROVIDES

A GOOD RULE TO LIVE BY.


IF I HAVE AN UNDERPAIR, AND THERE ARE FOUR OPPONENTS,

I WILL STILL BET, AS THE ODDS THAT NO ONE HAS

A TOP PAIR, ARE SLIGHTLY IN MY FAVOR

WITH FIVE OR MORE, THE ODDS ARE THAT SOMEONE WILL

HAVE THE HIGHER PAIR, SO YOU'RE DONE WITH IT.


AND, SINCE ACES ARE THE MOST COMMONLY PLAYED CARD

YOU CAN EXPECT A SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCE

THAT SOMEONE WILL HAVE ONE, AND JUST BE

"CHECKING TO THE RAISER"



"POCKET EIGHTS, AIN'T THAT GREAT, FLOP A SET, OR

YOU DO NOT BET, 'CAUSE YOU HAVE NOTHING YET,

SO THE POT YOU WON'T GET" !!


(AN ORIGINAL POEM, BY ADAM THE EXPERT)




A.T.E.
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Re: Should have bet?, Easy E, 3. Dec 2003 08:41
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"NOW, WHEN YOU HAVE EVERYONE IN. AND YHOU FLOP SECOND PAIR, THE PROBIHILLBILLITY (ANOTHER NEW WORD, COINED BY ADAM THE EXPERT) OF SOMEONE HOLDING ACE ACE, IS OVERWHELMING. SO, YOU HAVE A CHECK AND FOLD SITUATION."

First, I disagree about the overwhelming part. Unless you KNOW certain players will only be in with an Ace, bet the flop unless you get a read that someone is planning on betting/raising themselves.

Second, all caps is bad enough- don't start making up nonsensical words to cover your spelling challenges.
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Re: Should have bet?, palman, 3. Dec 2003 10:51
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I appreciated the poem however
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Re: Should have bet?, Schuster, 3. Dec 2003 10:36
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Bet the flop. If your hand is good, you cannot afford to give a free card. Over half the cards that could come off the deck hurt you. Instead, by checking, you allowed the BB to hit one of his 3 outs which he surely would not have payed for, and allowed him to win the pot instead. Sklansky calls this a mathematical catastrophe.

Oddly enough, if you had raised before the flop and it'd been checked to you, you're in a tougher spot, since they may just be checking to the raiser. The pot is large enough that you could probably give betting a shot, but you're probably done with it if you get called in too many places.

Lee
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