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Server Time: 12/1/2008 4:43:12 PM PACIFIC |
 Why flush even with odds?, chmurray, 2. Dec 2003 20:28 | ||
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| Say you have a four flush on the flop, no straight draw. Say you're playing with maniacs, and you're getting a full 6-1, not including implied odds, which are good. Over the long haul, this is a good position to be in. However, for that hand only, you're still putting money in the pot as an underdog. Whoever is ahead on the flop is more than likely going to win. Since you're getting great odds, you're going to put a decent amount of money in. Over the long haul, that's ok for you, but or the short term, its great for whom ever is ahead on the flop. What is the appropriate way for me to think about this? Probably, since I'm new, I'm not calculating odds as precisely as I think I am... But I'm noticing that when I just leave the flush draws alone, and let the other guys pay me, EVEN IF I GIVE THEM THE RIGHT PRICE, I'm still finishing well ahead, cause their implied odds are zero. | ||
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| Re: Why flush even with odds?, ekim2000, 2. Dec 2003 21:32 | ||
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| Remember if you fold when you should call, "they" gain. Taken from D. Sklansky's fundamental theorem of poker. To answer your question, both the leader on the flop as well as you with your draw have a positive expectation. Let me ask you this, if someone walked in during this hand and put $2,000 in the pot and said the "winner gets this money". Would you not be pretty dumb to muck your draw? All I have done is with the $2,000 is make your expectation "better", but in both cases you still have a positive expectation. | ||
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| Re: Why flush even with odds?, Candide, 3. Dec 2003 08:30 | ||
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| If you are drawing to the A high flush, and there is no pair on the board, then you are drawing to the nuts. Given that, any of the remaining 9 cards make you the winner (altho one of those cards can pair the board with the unsuited card, let's just ignore a full house for now, and of course we are ignoring the rare straight flush, but you would have to look at that as well) With 9 outs, you have a 19% chance of hitting the flush on the next card, and 35% chance to hit it on either the turn or river. This gives you 4.2 to 1 odds to make your hand on the turn, 1.86 to 1 to make it by the river. Let's assume you play it to the river every time. You say that by calling you are getting 6 to 1 odds. So if you are playing 10-20, there is 60 in the pot. Assume you will have to call a 20$ bet on the turn if you miss, but that everyone else will call too (i guess 2 other players? 4 saw the flop, one folds to the bet, the other calls). So you are getting 6 to 1 now, but over all expect to pay 30$ for 100, so 3.3 to 1. You clearly are getting odds to support seeing it to the river, plus your implied odds of being able to get more on the river, and perhaps the turn. But just assume that is all you get, as a bare minimum. To make this really easy, lets use 2 to 1 as your odds of hitting it. That means two times you will miss, and 1 time you will hit. So twice you will lose 30$, and once you will win 100$, for a net profit of 40$. Using sklansky's EV, you are looking at a +EV of 13.33$ per hand in this situation. So yes, in that one instance, you are probaly going to lose that thirty dollars. But poker is a marathon, not a sprint. Some days you win, some days you lose. What your goal is, if you are playing to make money, is to maximize your wins, and minimize your losses. So you fold borderline hands even if they look pretty, and you punish players when you have the best hand. You may still get drawn out, but you put money in the pot when you have the best hand. I'm sick so please let me know if something seems amiss or doesn't make sense. Jason | ||
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| Re: Why flush even with odds?, ReMMy, 6. Dec 2003 08:08 | ||
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| Keep in mind that more than one player can have a positive expectation on a given hand. Because of dead money in the pot, its quite possible to have 3 people correctly call to the river and make money in the long run. You should approach poker as a long run venture, not just one hand. Thats why you should play within your bankroll, so you can get in enough hand to take advantage of odds. Otherwise you might as well go play roullette. Good times, ReMMy | ||
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| Re: Why flush even with odds?, Roy Cooke, 15. Dec 2003 15:41 | ||
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| It is not great for the person you are calling...He is much better off if you fold your hand and don't draw to the flush! Life is Good ;-) Roy Cooke on 2. Dec 2003 20:28 chmurray wrote: > Say you have a four flush on the flop, no straight draw. Say you're playing > with maniacs, and you're getting a full 6-1, not including implied odds, which > are good. > > Over the long haul, this is a good position to be in. However, for that hand > only, you're still putting money in the pot as an underdog. Whoever is ahead on > the flop is more than likely going to win. Since you're getting great odds, > you're going to put a decent amount of money in. Over the long haul, that's ok > for you, but or the short term, its great for whom ever is ahead on the flop. > > What is the appropriate way for me to think about this? > > Probably, since I'm new, I'm not calculating odds as precisely as I think I > am... But I'm noticing that when I just leave the flush draws alone, and let the > other guys pay me, EVEN IF I GIVE THEM THE RIGHT PRICE, I'm still finishing well > ahead, cause their implied odds are zero. | ||
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| Re: Why flush even with odds?, PairTheBoard, 15. Dec 2003 17:10 | ||
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| If you have overcards you may even be the Favorite with two cards to come, even though someone with top pair has you beat at the moment. | ||
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| Re: Why flush even with odds?, timmer, 16. Dec 2003 10:14 | ||
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| yeah, you dont want to discount (or over count ) any of your true outs. | ||
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| Re: Why flush even with odds?, Aisthesis, 16. Dec 2003 10:41 | ||
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| Just as point of information, I thought it would be interesting to figure how many outs one needs to be the favorite in this situation. So here goes: Say you have x outs. Then the odds of missing your hand on the turn and the river will be (x/47)*(x/46). For x=33 (14 outs), that gives 1,089/2,162, still just over 50% of missing your hand. That should already be plenty at least to call (I think a lot of these situations are worth betting rather than just check-calling, but that's a different issue). At x=32, we get a probability of 1,024/2,162 of missing the hand, hence less than 50%. So, if you have 15 outs (classic for that would be flush and open straight draw), you're actually the favorite on the flop--assuming the outs are all clean and that there is no additional card, or cards, your opponent could get to beat you if you get any of the cards in question. As additional note (again abstracting from general practice), I'm pretty sure that there are ways your opponent could bet to make calling even with 15 outs unattractive: For example, if you "knew" your opponent would always fold on the turn if you made one of your cards and would always move all-in on the turn if you missed, I'm pretty sure you'd be making a bad bet in many situations by staying in on the flop. But fortunately, since your opponent doesn't know exactly what you have, you don't really have to worry about something like that.... | ||
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