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Server Time: 12/1/2008 4:05:52 PM PACIFIC |
 Party Poker Concern, NewSchool, 2. Dec 2003 07:51 | ||
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| Ok, here goes my story. I play only NL $50 cash games at Party Poker. About 2 months ago I am up about $600 so I decide to cashout all of it and take a break for a bit. About 2 days after the money is in my account I decide to play again. After playing for 2 days I give back all of my winnings, $600. So I just think I am either playing bad due to being up, or I am playing way to loose. I decide to take a break for a while. Two months later I decide to play again. I deposit $50, and 3 days later I am up $1100. Ofcourse 3 days of constantly playing has made me tired so I cash it all out and take a break again. Four days later after the money is secure in my bank, I decide to play some more, and I give back $400. I decide to completely stop playing and havent played for a week and I am thinking of not returning to the site. Now I have spent the past few days recollecting on what happened. Both times that I gave back my winnings I was outdrawn, rivered, and just got plain cold cards. Basically I just could not seem to win. One time I even had the nut flush on the turn, but checked it just because I knew I knew I would get rivered, and ofcourse I did, the river put two pairs on the board and someone got their boat, I folded. Most of the time it seemed as if I was setup, given a good hand only to have it beat many many times. Now I know this is poker, and nothing is truely a science. All I am saying is that either I am not playing correctly, or something is fishy. It was like they had simply "flipped the switch" on my cards, wanting me to give back some money. Some people say "why would they rig the site, they make enough off the rake?" My answer to that is "maybe thats why they make so much." If they could do a good job of keeping the money circulating, slowly they will filter it with the rake. I have been playing for a while on this site and still dont want to believe anything is wrong with it. But there are so many times I see people's cards collide, both going all in, one winning it all ofcourse, and the site getting a nice rake. And dont even get me started on how many flushes Ive seen. Please reply and let me know what you think. | ||
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| Re: Party Poker Concern, Barry T, 2. Dec 2003 08:06 | ||
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| Hi,. It is good you put this in the psychoogy part of the forum. It is a silly concern. Let's say Party (where I play) or some other site decided to do this. First, they would have to track the winnings, cashouts (and to some extent thoughts) of thousands of players. Next they would have to (secretly) write some of the most sophisticated software the world has ever seen (at enormous expense, not to mention keeping the secret) tjust to make sure you (and the other recent winners) get cards that will be rivered. Then, and this is the really hard part, they have to figure out how you and everyone else will play! After all, what if they deal me the hand that is supposed to be the one to river you (say, J9s making the flush) and I do not play it because I am too tight? What if there are threre people in the game programmed to lose? What if you decide to play better than you used to, and foil their sophisticated program? what if you ask yuor wife to play for you and she plays differently? How will the program be able to figure out how to beat her? Should I go on? BarryT | ||
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| Re: Party Poker Concern, NewSchool, 2. Dec 2003 08:21 | ||
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| You have a good point. Like I said, I dont want to believe it is rigged, but I just had to question it. Yes I did think of all the sophistication it would take in order to setup such a rig. The best point is that not everyone plays the same. I am in no way trying to sound like I am upset because I lost some of my winnings and I'm just too greedy to lose, its part of the game. I just wanted to express my thoughts to others out there who also play Party and see what they have to say, people like you. The timing of it all just raised a concern for me, and I will ofcourse return to Party because after all I am a compulsive poker player and I dont like any of the other sites as much. Thanks for your input. | ||
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| Re: Party Poker Concern, ReMMy, 2. Dec 2003 08:26 | ||
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| How bout... What if I flipped a 3 sided coin everytime it was my turn to decide whether i should check/fold, bet/call, or raise? | ||
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| Re: Party Poker Concern, ReMMy, 2. Dec 2003 08:17 | ||
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| "One time I even had the nut flush on the turn, but checked it just because I knew I knew I would get rivered, and ofcourse I did" This is called playing scared, when you do things like that, you minimize profit and maximize losses in the long run. A better play would have been to bet the turn, then fold the river when the board double paired. There is no "switch". When you cash out you are creating a false "checkpoint" in your mind. After this "checkpoint" you will either have a winning streak or a losing streak. While you might have a couple of those during the time of building your bankroll for a cashout, you probably view those as the normal ebb and flow of the game. You can't expect to go on a rush, cash out, and when you come back go on another rush, it just doesn't work that way. You should be evaluating your play closer, for example, making a big enough bet on the turn with the nut flush when you think your opponent is on trips or 2 pair drawing for a boat to give him incorrect odds to do so. Sounds like your still up in the long run... Good times, ReMMy | ||
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| Re: Party Poker Concern, NewSchool, 2. Dec 2003 08:29 | ||
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| You are right, the correct play would definitely have been to raise a lot, but the person who I knew had trips was a loose player, and would have definitely called me, and my instinct said to wait, which was good. Had I gone all in, he would have called without a doubt, and the river wouldve been nasty. Your point on checkpoints is very valid. Trust me, I more than anyone dont want to believe Party is setup in any way whatsoever. I just had concerns that I felt needed some other players incite. | ||
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| Re: Party Poker Concern, ReMMy, 2. Dec 2003 08:49 | ||
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| You're missing the point. If he would have gone all in on the turn then that WAS your correct move, not making it was a huge mistake, I doubt the pot was big enough to lay him the correct odds. Allowing the outcome of how the cards fell to justify your actions is extremely bad... | ||
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| Re: Party Poker Concern, NewSchool, 2. Dec 2003 09:21 | ||
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| Hindsight is 20/20 in poker. In any other situation I would have raise a lot, but in that one instance I decided to see the river based on what my instinct told me. I knew he would call anything I put down, so simply trying to get him to fold would not have been an option. I analyze all the players at the table where I play. When I have a feeling about something I go with it. | ||
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| Re: Party Poker Concern, ReMMy, 2. Dec 2003 09:39 | ||
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| I don't understand how you can just have a "feeling" about what will fall. There are at most 10 out of 44 cards (1 for quads, 3 to match kicker in his hand, 6 to match the kickers on the board). Therefore he will make his hand less than 1 out of 4 times. All you have to do is lay incorrect odds and your play will have a positive EV in the long run. The fact that you are talking about this "feeling" is the same reason you made your original post, the odds are what they are, it doesn't matter what "feeling" you have, that "feeling" may be from the old sour cream you put on your taco for lunch, but it shouldn't change how you play your poker game. | ||
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| Re: Party Poker Concern, NewSchool, 2. Dec 2003 09:47 | ||
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| Well obviously we had differing opinions, and no I havent eaten mexican food in a while. Instinct to me is a big part of the game, and I play with it. | ||
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| Re: Party Poker Concern, Schuster, 2. Dec 2003 09:57 | ||
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| If you believe you can have an "instinct" about which cards are going to come, you will likely never succeed as a poker player. Perhaps you need to (re)read Sklansky's theory of poker. Letting him draw out for free is one of those mathematical catastrophe's he always talks about. Lee | ||
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| Re: Party Poker Concern, SCOTT FRANCIS, 2. Dec 2003 10:02 | ||
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| Didn't see this post (Schuster) till after I wrote mine. My point exactly. | ||
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| Re: Party Poker Concern, SCOTT FRANCIS, 2. Dec 2003 10:01 | ||
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| Instinct is a great quality to have in poker but it should never apply to the statistics of the game. Use instinct to decide if you should bet/raise/bluff/check an opponent to put him in an adverse situation but don't use it to decide what card will come next. I teach 12th grade Advanced Placement statistics & probability. In no way does that make me an expert card player but it does make me an expert in prob&stat. You were an overwhelming favorite in this situation and should get as much money in the pot every time you have this oppurtunity. If you find yourself afraid of being rivered take a longer break from the game. Streaks both good and bad are going to happen, you cannot let this determine how you play. Hope this helps, Scott | ||
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| Re: Party Poker Concern, NewSchool, 2. Dec 2003 10:12 | ||
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| I remember watching the 2002 WSOP. On one particular hand it was Doyle Brunson and Varkonyi, the only two in the hand. I believe Varkonyi had the best hand on the flop, so he bet moderately. Brunson, on a flush draw, simply called. The next card, the turn, gave Brunson the flush, Varkonyi bets first, and Brunson simply CALLS. The next card, same suit, putting 4 suits on the table, and now giving Varkonyi the best hand, he had a queen I believe. Varkonyi bets again, and Brunson calls. Varkonyi wins the hand and Brunson simply says nice hand. Now obviously Varkonyi didnt have a clue as to the fact that he was beat on the turn, and his luck throughout that tournament prevailed. But was interested me the most was how Brunson just called on the turn. Possibly he felt as if he wanted to see the river? I do believe that he was disgusted with the 4 suit on the river, but he never let Varkonyi know that. So ask yourself, is it really a bad move to check/call on the turn to see the river? I say no, and I do believe that Brunson thought the same. I am sure some of you know the hand that I am talking about, please offer some of your incite. | ||
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| Re: Party Poker Concern, SCOTT FRANCIS, 2. Dec 2003 10:32 | ||
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| Without knowing what Brunson was thinking in that situation it is difficult to comment on his play. With regards to your play, if you said you didnt think he would call and were taking your chances with a trap I wouldnt have a problem with it. See I am not really arguing the play I am arguing your reasoning. Not betting for fear of being outdrawn is a terrible terrible mistake. Also, Brunson obviously did not have the nuts at this time so could be beaten already (nut flush). You had the nuts right then and could be outdrawn. | ||
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| Re: Party Poker Concern, Schuster, 2. Dec 2003 10:34 | ||
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| World class players think on a different level. Doyle probably figured that if he raised the turn, Varkoyni would have thrown his hand away, and Doyle wanted to get some more out of him on the river. Your hand is MUCH different because you said if you moved in, your player would likely call. That is exactly what you want, and I'm sure if Doyle thought he could get all the chips in the center, he would have done it. Lee | ||
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| Re: Party Poker Concern, Stl10202, 2. Dec 2003 10:37 | ||
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| Speaking of instinct and flops on party, sometimes you can tell what range of cards a flop will be. for example, if a 4 falls on the flop in the previous hand and now you are sitting with pocket fours this hand, it likely won't come up on the board. another one, when you have high cards and the previous flop was high as in an A, 10, and a J or something along that nature, if you raise with an AJs, the flop turns up a lot with a K or Q or middle cards. that is my experience with party for the two months I have been playing. I played at pokerpages in a tourney last night and the flop held an ace or sometimes two 3 times in a row . i never see that at party. but don't get me wrong, i am not complaing. i am up pretty good, i just think their rng is shady at times. peace, stl10202 | ||
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| Re: STL10202, Schuster, 2. Dec 2003 10:41 | ||
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| If you hold 44 and there was a K J 7 on the last flop, it's unlikely for you to see a 4 on this next flop. It's a 7.5 to 1 shot on a truly random deck, which is rather unlikely anyway. Lee | ||
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| Re: Party Poker Concern, palman, 2. Dec 2003 17:44 | ||
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| WSOP play is much different than the play on party poker cash games. Doyle may have been slowplaying, trying to extract more out of varkoyni, etc. Simply put. If you say he will call whatever you bet, and you know he has incorrect odds to do it, bet all of your chips, he calls on his 20% draw, and you win 80% of the time. You won't find a better situation in poker to get all of your chips in on 80% consistently. If you disagree with that ya shouldn't be playing poker. | ||
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| Re: Party Poker Concern, Chris W, 2. Dec 2003 17:27 | ||
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| Obviously charging your opponent to draw out on you is almost always the correct way to play a hand. However, I believe his approach may actually have a higher EV in this situation under certain assumptions. let's assume that he is completely certain that his opponent has trips AND that his opponent will call and all in bet on either of the turn or the river. This is fairly reasonable as many players will not laydown three of a kind even with the flush on board. In this situation there is no way to prevent his opponent from completing his draw; either it will happen or it won't he's going to call for sure . now, if the river brings a second pair or trips he can safely fold and lose no money. If it doesn't he can move in and win his opponent's entire stack. Contrast this with going all in on the turn. Now you have a roughly 23% chance that you will lose your entire stack compared to no chance if you wait for the river . this strategy would never be correct in a limit game but sometimes no limit creates some interesting nuances. | ||
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| Re: Party Poker Concern, NewSchool, 2. Dec 2003 18:31 | ||
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| you nailed it on the head. exactly why i checked. he was going to call either way, and I saved about $80 by not going all in and getting rivered. Others on this forum think Im a horrible poker player for not raising on the turn, but I stand by my reasoning. A lot of times it does not hurt to see the river and then see where you stand. Had the river not put another pair on the board then ofcourse he would have paid. | ||
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| Re: Party Poker Concern, Highflyin3484k, 2. Dec 2003 18:34 | ||
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| Hate to sound like a broken record, but you did play scared and that is a non-profitable way of playing poker. | ||
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| Re: Party Poker Concern, Flakes, 2. Dec 2003 18:36 | ||
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| on 2. Dec 2003 18:31 NewSchool wrote: > you nailed it on the head. exactly why i checked. he was going to call either way, and I saved about $80 by not > going all in and getting rivered. Others on this forum think Im a horrible poker player for not raising on the > turn, but I stand by my reasoning. A lot of times it does not hurt to see the river and then see where you stand. > Had the river not put another pair on the board then ofcourse he would have paid. But you're supposed to make him PAY to outdraw you. If you can't see that then you will never be a winning poker player. Never, Never, Never. Flakes | ||
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| Re: Party Poker Concern, Schuster, 2. Dec 2003 18:46 | ||
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| If he was going to call the all in no matter what, then it would be absolutely correct to wait until the river. Unfortunately, you can't say that for sure, especially if a 4th of the suit comes out on the river. Lee | ||
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