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Server Time: 12/1/2008 3:47:14 PM PACIFIC |
 How I busted out at the Bellagio today, Mark Gregorich, 2. Dec 2003 00:42 | ||
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| I played in the $1500 no limit hold'em event at Bellagio today, along with over 400 others. A great turnout for this event! I think the main event will draw over 300 players this year. I was knocked out very early, but I don't feel like I could have avoided it. Perhaps I could have, though. The situation: $100-200 blinds, I have $4700 in chips, the button has about $7000 in chips and is a fairly loose player. The button opens for $600, and I am in the big blind with the AQ of diamonds. I reraise to $1700. I could call here, but don't for two reasons: a) I probably have the best hand b) If I just call, I will play the hand out of position, which could easily cost me the pot if I don't flop a pair The button calls my reraise after only a brief deliberation (this tells me he has a good hand, but not AA or KK - I don't think, at least) The flop comes 29Q rainbow. A nice flop for AQ, or so I think. I bet my last $3000, and he beats me into the pot with his call. He turns over 99, leaving me drawing close to dead. No miracles, and I head for the side games. Could I have survived this hand? IMO, no, given my chip status. Even if I just called before the flop, I can't see myself folding this hand. There are so few hands which beat me, and I don't have enough chips that I won't call a rather large bet. Well, maybe I'll get'em in the omaha 8 or better tourney tomorrow. Mark | ||
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| Re: How I busted out at the Bellagio today, Chris W, 2. Dec 2003 01:43 | ||
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| for what it's worth I completely agree. I can't imagine at what point you could get away from it ... better luck next time :) | ||
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| Re: How I busted out at the Bellagio today, Jordan, 2. Dec 2003 09:36 | ||
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| Mark: I've got a question about this situation. Aren't you crippling yourself by going all-in protecting what you think is the best hand here? I can understand you thinking you do have the best hand as you have flopped top pair, top kicker. I'm still recently new to NL cash and tourney play, but I've heard and see how much trouble top pair, top kicker or an overpair can get you into when somebody raises all-in or in this case beats you into the pot. As you said, he called your re-raise pretty quickly meaning he could have a medium sized pair or maybe a hand such as yours maybe AJ or something along those lines. Let's say you bet out strong on the flop but not all-in and he immediately raises you all-in. Would you have folded then and possibly saved your tournament there? You'd be short-stacked but at least not knocked out. You could then make the decision right then and there to call his all-in or fold knowing there is a possibility you are beat. I'm not all questioning your play as I respect your posts and know you have a lot more experience than I do. I'm sincerely curious if this post-flop play is the best strategy. I've done the same type of play with an overpair, had somebody call me with a mid pair and either hit trips or two pair. I have a similar situation that happened to me last night while I was playing a single table tournament on Poker Stars. I held KK and I made a big raise before the flop and this loose player had called with the 5 and 8 of clubs and tried to bluff me when an ace hit. Luckily he didn't bet too much after I had checked (since an Ace came on the flop) and I called him down and my KK stood up. A few hands later I was dealt KK again and I made the same raise (about 6 to 7x the BB). He again called. The flop came 3 10 x. This time I thought I'm not going to mess around with this guy anymore. I pushed the rest of my chips in (about 2k) he had about 1500. He sits and thinks about it for a while, and says, "must have better than 10's huh". He calls with A10 (top pair, top kicker and hits an ace on the turn to beat me with 2 pair). After analyzing this play I wasn't sure I made the best play. Sure I did have the best hand on the flop and would invite that call knowing I was ahead, but if i made a big bet on the flop and the ace came on the river, I likely could have gotten away from the hand putting him on AK. Is it the best strategy to push all-in with a pretty good idea in your mind you have the best hand? What about the combined potential of your opponent hitting the flop stronger (which gives him an easy call) and the possibility you'll get a loose player calling you and drawing out? Does this potential outweigh the rewards of going all-in on the flop? What do you think the best play here was? My thinking is that I shouldn't have put my whole tournament at risk by pushing all-in on the flop. What do you guys think? Any advice or discussion would be appreciated. | ||
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| Re: How I busted out at the Bellagio today, Schuster, 2. Dec 2003 10:12 | ||
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| These sorts of things happen in tournaments all the time and you have to deal with them. If going all in is about a pot sized bet, then sometimes you have to take the gamble. You just came out on the wrong end of it. Lee | ||
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| Re: How I busted out at the Bellagio today, Bungus, 2. Dec 2003 21:22 | ||
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| One of the ways I look at it in a situation like this is, there are very few hands Mark's opponent could realisticaly be holding that could beat him, 22, 99, QQ, KK, AA, the latter being very unlikly, he has WAY more than a fifty-fifty chance, it is not much of a gamble at all, 95%+ of the time he has the best hand, so an all-in is more than appropriate. Hell, I'd bet my shirt on that one, although its covered in dog hair and has a noticable coffee stain on it, so I don't think anyone would take it. Uh, .. oh yeah, and as for being outdrawn, if he wants to make that call with an AK or JJ, sure you might loose when a K comes up or he makes a flush, but the thing is you gave him the worst odds you could with your raise, so while you may not get to keep your shirt, at lest you have your pride. And pants. | ||
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| Re: How I busted out at the Bellagio today, Wren, 2. Dec 2003 10:19 | ||
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| IMO, you played this as well as you could have. Given the preflop action, the size of the pot, and the consistency of the flop, you're committed unless, of course, you have some extremely reliable read on the player. Preflop is slightly less cut & dry, but I think your reraise is a good one. It's enough to fold a steal attempt, but also, I believe, small enough to get away from your hand if the button moves all-in and you put him on a real monster. Yeah - I think the bust-out was unavoidable here. Better luck in the O8 tourney! on 2. Dec 2003 00:42 Mark Gregorich wrote: > I played in the $1500 no limit hold'em event at Bellagio today, along with over > 400 others. A great turnout for this event! I think the main event will draw > over 300 players this year. > > I was knocked out very early, but I don't feel like I could have avoided it. > Perhaps I could have, though. > > The situation: $100-200 blinds, I have $4700 in chips, the button has about > $7000 in chips and is a fairly loose player. > > The button opens for $600, and I am in the big blind with the AQ of diamonds. > I reraise to $1700. > > I could call here, but don't for two reasons: > a) I probably have the best hand > b) If I just call, I will play the hand out of position, which > could easily cost me the pot if I don't flop a pair > > The button calls my reraise after only a brief deliberation (this tells me he > has a good hand, but not AA or KK - I don't think, at least) > > The flop comes 29Q rainbow. A nice flop for AQ, or so I think. I bet my last > $3000, and he beats me into the pot with his call. > > He turns over 99, leaving me drawing close to dead. No miracles, and I head > for the side games. > > Could I have survived this hand? IMO, no, given my chip status. Even if I > just called before the flop, I can't see myself folding this hand. There are so > few hands which beat me, and I don't have enough chips that I won't call a > rather large bet. > > Well, maybe I'll get'em in the omaha 8 or better tourney tomorrow. > > Mark > | ||
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| Re: How I busted out at the Bellagio today, Schuster, 2. Dec 2003 10:20 | ||
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| What do you think of the button's play? He has to assume overcards or a big pair with your reraise, and it will be very tough for him to play a lot of flops after you've already committed 30% of your stack. Borderline call in my opinion. The other thing... When I'm playing a decent but not great hand out of position in a spot like this, I'd much rather make slightly more than a pot sized reraise than less. You're only 200 short, so it's not much of a difference, but I wonder if making it 2200ish would have caused him to let it go. Just an opinion on this one. Lee | ||
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| Re: How I busted out at the Bellagio today, Formless, 2. Dec 2003 17:14 | ||
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| I think the reraise preflop was a big mistake. It's like a value reraise that I would make with AA or KK, so maybe you are representing one of these hands, which is OK if you have the chips behind you to back it up, but I don't think you do here. Shoving all in preflop seems reasonable given the parameters, he will open with a wide range of hands on the button, but your stack is big enough to get him to fold a lot of those hands. Calling is OK, but there is 900 already in the pot so I would want to take a stab at it now with a hand that travels well to the river. On the flop, you didn't leave yourself enough chips to take down the pot, it doesn't make a difference in this particular hand, but it's a fundamental mistake I think. I probably would have reraised all-in preflop, and gotten called and lost. I tend to play sit and gos more than big tournaments, so that would explain my eagerness to go hard or go home. | ||
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| Re: How I busted out at the Bellagio today, noiseboy, 9. Dec 2003 17:01 | ||
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| I was thinking maybe the all-in from the Blind might be good too, since chances are very good that you have the best hand + there is a chance he will fold many hands that are about even with him. I'm not normally an all-in player and in most instances AQ is NOT a hand to go for all of your chips with, but sometimes it's good to appear "willing to die in order to live" as Amir Vahedi put it. Raising all-in from the blind has the benefit of sending the message to the entire table that your blinds are not to be messed with. My guess is that a lot of players on the button would fold pocket 99s or even TTs, fearing that they would be a big dog to a higher pair, though a lot depends on the read of the button player. The obvious disadvantage is getting called by AK or a pair QQs or higher, where you are pretty much doomed, but the chances are that the button doesn't have anything that good. Mark had him read for something medium, so maybe just blow him right off the pot right then, there is a good chance of a fold and if you get called, it's probably a coin flip. If the button is someone like me, he might have a small pair, suited A, or he might not have anything at all and just be betting pure position. I do this sometimes, especially against a shorter stack in the BB, but if they play back I'm outta there unless they are so short that it's worth the gamble to bust them. The other disadvantage of the all-in is that Mark has just enough chips that he can play it the way he did and leave an escape hatch. Most of the time it's good to have an escape hatch, but sometimes the escape hatch turns into a trapdoor into oblivion if your opponent outflops you. In the cases where you are up against a monster, they will often just smooth call you pre-flop anyway, then you are often in the same boat on the flop. However, there will be times when someone doesn't want to take a chance and reraises you all-in, especially if they have KKs and put you on the A, so there are times when you can get away from the AQ pretty easily and not go broke with Mark's reraise. Also, when you completely miss the flop you can get away. Personally, this is difficult for me because it feels too weak to make a pre-flop raise then NOT bet the flop, because then your opponent is almost guaranteed to take the pot away from you, even if they can't beat A-high. Another possible play is to just call the raise, then bet out whatever comes on the flop. I do this sometimes, because I lead with a lot of my good hands anyway and it looks to your opponent that you flopped something since you are betting out of position right into the preflop raiser, it's a show of strength and since I would do it when I flop a set or two pair, it doesn't look out of the ordinary. In this case, the opponent would probably smooth call the flop bet which would start the alarm bells ringing in my head on a rainbow flop, but it's still hard to get away from when you flop the Q. If he raises you all-in right there, you have less invested, so you might be able to get away from the hand, but it would be really difficult since he could have something like KQ and be playing fast because he thinks you are bluffing or would bet with Q-weak kicker thinking it was best heads-up. You'd feel pretty stupid if you layed down AQ and were shown something worse. All in all, I think most scenerios end with you either going broke or losing a big chunk which basically cripples you. If you haven't seen a decent hand in a long time, I would lean toward the all-in because he might give you credit for more that you have and lay down the 99s. Definitely all-in against a frequent button stealer, but someone who is more likely to have a hand, I think the way Mark played it is probably best. | ||
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| Re: How I busted out at the Bellagio today, KevinK, 3. Dec 2003 03:06 | ||
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| Nothing you could do that time. It was one of those hands you have to see a flop. The guy just happened to flop the trip. On a side note, though, I have been screwed by ace queen more than I could ever with pocket deuces. Just the way it goes and be lucky you can afford to play a tourney with a buyin like that. | ||
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