|
||
|
||
|
Server Time: 12/1/2008 4:41:38 PM PACIFIC |
 Party SnGs, Dr_Monkey, 1. Dec 2003 06:38 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| I played a $11 SnG last night on party. 2 well timed bluffs and a few good hands kept me in 2nd in chips for a long time. One player hurt me bad. He was short stacked and called my AQs raise that put him all in. He had 44. I hit a Ace on the turn and a Q on the river, but he made a flush. He built some chips and gave them away again. He went all in when I was BB. The SB joined the hand. My 56o made a pair of 5s on the flop. We checked the flop. When the turn brought me a set of 5s, I had to bet. Luckily the SB called the turn and the river. My set took down a nice side pot but the all in guy hit another 10 on the river for a boat. Again he escaped death. We finally get to 4 players and this lucky guy is one of the big stacks. Myself and another player are getting low. The big stacks were stealing my blinds and my poor cards made me fold. So we are at 200/400 blinds. I am at 480 after posting my blind. UTG is lucky guy with 3000+. OTB is small stack with 420. SB is big stack with 2500+ UTB makes it 800. All fold to me. I have AQs. I can call his raise which most likely is a steal since he has doone it the last few hands. If I call I have 80 left, which I am sure he will put me all in on the flop. Here was my thought process. If I call an win, I will have 1600+. That will probably guarentee me seeing the money. However, I will still be short stacked and in 2 hands the blinds will be 250/500. If I fold, the other short stack will be all in when he is BB. He hasn't played a hand in a long time. Trying to sneak into 3rd. There is no guarentee that he won't win in the BB but there is no guarentee that my AQs is good. If I was already in the money, I would have called. I know everyone says you should play to win, but in this case 3rd place money is better than 4th heartache. Do you take a stand with AQs or hope the other short stack busts in 2 hands? | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Party SnGs, ReMMy, 1. Dec 2003 07:46 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| Dr_Monkey, First off, that was a great description, exact chip sizes makes answering much easier. As for what you should have done, that is not so clear cut in this example. Lets consider our options; 1. If you call and win you will have $1960 chips, this would basically put you in a 3 way tie for chip lead. 2. If you call and lose, your gone and you get nothing. 3. If you fold, you're basically fighting for 3rd at best, unless you get steamrolled by the deck. You are giving up any chance at bluffing pots or stealing blinds unless you manage to stick around and get lucky. There is also the possibility that he will double up in his blinds, which means you MUST double up on a random hand to even have a chance at 3rd. Ok, so lets see, I don't play SnG's on Party, but I'm guessing the payout is 20, 30, 50? That means the difference between 2nd and 3rd is minimal, which gives some weight for trying to slip into 3rd. The question comes down to how comfortable you feel in an evenly stacked 3 way match. If you were in this situation 10 times, and we'll assume you take 3rd 8 times if you fold which would give you $160, now lets say you decide to go for it, since they have been blind stealing, let's assume you will win 6 times, I would think you'd be around 60-70% favorite. So going with 6 shots at a 3 way tourney, ask yourself how you think you'd fare. If one of the players isn't good at shorthanded, which is ususally the case, I would give myself 3 firsts, 1 second, and 2 thirds. This would make me $200. Since my assumptions can't be that far off, I would make the call. Anybody have a different guess for # of third places? Does that help Dr_M? Even if you disagree with my assumptions, thats the logic you want to use... Good luck, ReMMy | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Party SnGs, ReMMy, 1. Dec 2003 07:54 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| On rereading my post, I suppose of those 8 times I assumed 3rd, you're probably likely to double up twice in a row once or twice, giving you a shot at 2nd or 1st. I still lean towards calling myself since I think that even if you lose in the long run it will be minimal. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Party SnGs, Dr_Monkey, 1. Dec 2003 09:41 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| That's an interesting analysis and it was helpful. Never thought to look at it in those terms. I thought of it more as me taking a coin flip with AQs or taking a coin flip when the other short stack is in the BB and hoping a big stack has a better hand. Your calling v. folding analysis gives a pay out of $200 v. $160 over the long run (using a sample of 10 SnGs). Does your analysis change if your bankroll is on the small size? After paying the $11 to play, my bankroll was only $46. So if I lost, I would have a minimum of 4 more SnGs. Therefore, 3rd place it a huge success over 4th. I view the $20 3rd place money as a free entry into another SnG. I bit warped, but you have to do what you can with a limited bankroll. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Party SnGs, ReMMy, 1. Dec 2003 10:03 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| Interesting that you bring that up, it was one of the minor points I chose not to make as I didn't want to clutter my answer with stuff that didn't apply to you. If you have a small bankroll, then yes you might want to lean towards folding and trying for 3rd since the extra profit is more long term and you can't afford to play that many tourneys. However, if your bankroll is that small, you should be playing $5 SnG's, not $10. Even that is risky if you are not experienced at tourneys yet. You always want to be in a position to maximize profits in the long run if possible. Having to make decisions based on a need for short term wins is a bad place to be... Good luck, ReMMy | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Party SnGs, ReMMy, 1. Dec 2003 10:50 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| I was thinking about this while getting ready for work, and I'd like to change my answer... The fact that you have such a small bankroll makes me say that you should absolutely positively call! $50 is pretty much the smallest bankroll possible, and can be easily replaced from outside sources. You shouldn't have been in a $10 SnG unless your goal was to jumpstart your bankroll, even if it wasn't your goal, now that you are in that situation you must approach it that way. Calling gives you a good shot at taking first place, all you really need is 1 or 2 more good or lucky hands to take down $50. This basically doubles your available money. The larger your bankroll gets, the more you need to think about preserving it, you've definately got a ways to go before you get to that stage =) MAKE THAT CALL NEXT TIME!!! BTW, did you call or fold, and what happened? ReMMy | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Party SnGs, Dr_Monkey, 2. Dec 2003 05:13 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| Thanks for the info. And I will probably call next time. As it turns out, the big stack bully took out the other small stack when the small stack was in the BB. I think it was K7 v. 104. King high won. As the small stack became the BB, I thought to myself, I am screwed if everyone folds to the BB. So next time I think I will make my own destiny and call with AQs. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| POKER FORUM HOME | POKER FORUM | LINK TO US | ARCHIVE | ONLINE POKER | Copyright 2002, United Poker Forum |
|
Getting Started |
UPF Tournaments |
Poker News, Views, Rules |
Poker Strategy & Psychology |
Money and Bankroll Poker Bonuses & Promotions | World Series of Poker (WSOP) | Play Online Poker | Poker Odds & Statistics | Tournament Poker | Poker Books, Videos & Learning Tools Looking for a Poker Game | Poker Bad Beats | Not Quite Poker | Quizzes and Polls | Forum Suggestions & Bugs |
|
|
|
|
Interesting Links: Online Poker | Free Poker Games | United Poker Network |
|