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Server Time: 12/1/2008 3:18:08 PM PACIFIC |
 Time for a Paradigm Shift?, CRCarson, 30. Nov 2003 10:35 | ||
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| Conventional Wisdom says that if you have a bad starting hand, you should fold. Yet we read posts here in the forum regularly about people who have lost to hands that were made on the river and should have been folded before the flop. Similarly, we watch regularly as the big guns of WPT or WSOP take down their opponents with junk hands that the announcers say they shouldn't even be playing. Therefore, does it follow that junk hands can be played at anytime from any position at any limit with success? Just grappling with the notion... | ||
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| Re: Time for a Paradigm Shift?, Pale Ale, 30. Nov 2003 10:40 | ||
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| "Therefore, does it follow that junk hands can be played at anytime from any position at any limit with success?" Sure...if you add...a small percentage of the time. PA | ||
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| Re: Time for a Paradigm Shift?, rdale, 30. Nov 2003 12:26 | ||
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| You note that your preflop raises have stopped getting much action, it is now time to start preflop raising a little more from mid to late position, because they think you are a rock. Lets say you have been playing with some people for a bit and you have consistently shown down a winner more than a few times, it is folded to you in midposition and you have 95 off suit, raising here isn't a horrible play, with the intent to bet the flop and the turn if necessary, and possibly lay down to someone showing aggression. Not that it is a recommended play, but most of your opponents should have witnessed you lighting up like this before and showing down a respectable hand. This does not work when a calling station is sitting in line following you, as they will probably call you down to the river, but against rational sane players that completely miss the flop... it works if used sparingly and in correct position. If you flop big and make it to the showdown, you are sure to get more action on your preflop raises with better holdings and it might be time to tighten it back up a little. Playing constant garbage with no method or tactics is a sure fire way to go broke. Gus Hanson is a good example of a player that will play complete trash and bet the flop to see where he is at, and then maybe slow down on the turn or river. He seems to play based on reading the strength of his opponents hand and doesn't worry about the garbage in his. This is advanced stuff, not to be tried with your bankroll and I don't where you get the training wheels for the bike he rides, but it sure is fun to watch him. | ||
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| Re: Time for a Paradigm Shift?, Angel, 30. Nov 2003 13:00 | ||
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| Any two cards can win. Most two card combinations simply don't win enough to be profitable. The profitability of a combination is based not on how big the pot was that just got drug but on the expected value based on repeated plays. If you play 72o and win a $78 pot and subsequently lose $12, $22, $8, $14, $26, $11, $4, $36 and $13 - then you've made $78 and lost $146 over 10 hands. You can then say that your EV (expected value) is ($78 - $146)/10 = -$6.80. You lose $6.80 every time you make the play - whether or not you win the pot or not. This is a very important concept to understand for anyone who wishes to play winning poker. Now granted, ten plays is (generally - there are some rare cases with the help of SD) not sufficient to determine your EV but I hope the example helped somewhat. That said, if you're opponent is in the big blind and has telegraphed to you by way of a tell that you have found, that he has no interest in his hand - and it is folded around to you in the small blind and you have 72o - then it would be correct to raise. Poker is situational - what Gus Hansen or any other expert was thinking when they played trash is up for speculation - but I can assure you that they are NOT thinking - "I saw this win a big pot once...." Good luck... | ||
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| Re: Time for a reality check?, timmer, 30. Nov 2003 18:11 | ||
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| TV poker movies are heavily edited for effect. I wouldnt play hands the way those guys in TV poker Movies are playing with your money. TV poker movies are a whole lot of bullshit wrapped up as reality and put on TV for the sole purpose of selling commercial advertising time. Do you think they are doing this for "the good of poker " or "for their love of the game."? If so you better go south with a stack of those cheques for bus fair back to stupidsville | ||
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| Re: Time for a Paradigm Shift?, shorn, 2. Dec 2003 08:50 | ||
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| One thing to remember is that junk hands can be played much more frequently (and profitably) under the following conditions (all of which must be met): 1. When playing NL vs. Limit 2. When playing against good or great players who can and will make a tough laydown. 3. When playing heads up. To try and play junk in a full ring game of limit holdem is a sure fire way to burn up your bankroll. Why? Because in limit, most of the time you simply cannot skew the odds enough to make it right for someone to fold. Also, even in a lot of the NL games on the internet, the players are bad. Bad players make bad decisions (like calling huge bets with crap hands). Finally, in limit games (and NL on the internet), rarely do you see a heads up pot. It is much tougher to bluff your way out of a multi-way pot. Remember that most of the crap hands you see on WPT are shorthanded, at the final table, in a NL game agains world class players. Unless you are in that arena, the crap hands are negative EV a majority of the time. | ||
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