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Server Time: 12/1/2008 4:19:12 PM PACIFIC |
 playing against tiltos: some odds, Aisthesis, 29. Nov 2003 16:43 | ||
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| Ok, after Formless' critique of my plan (the positional part of which is definitely right) for playing against a tilto, I'm going to run some simulations for correct play against a certain type of tilto to see how certain hands hold up. Here's the setup, which should roughly simulate part of the situation: There are no blinds and endless buy-ins. You are playing heads-up against a machine that will go all-in every time it is dealt any two cards T or better, which works out to about 14.3% of the time. You look at your cards and, depending on holdings, can call or fold. The question is: Which hands should you call with in order to maximize winnings? In this post, I'm not yet going to attempt to answer this question but rather explain my methodology for some subsequent posts. I'm going to break down the distribution of the machine's hands (for example, among all possible pockets, there are only 6 instances for each of the pairs, 4 instances for suited non-pairs, and 12 instances for unsuited non-pairs--sometimes less if you are holding any cards T or better, as you should be in most of the cases in question). With this distribution of hands, I'm going to run first my lowest possible candidates (namely 99 and AQo) for calling through pokerstove to see how they hold up against the machine hands, factoring in the distributional probabilities on the machine hands as well as the way the suits match up. I'm going to round everything to 2 percentage decimal places (e.g. 52.13%) to keep things fairly accurate without being unnecessarily complicated. For the hands to hold up in practice (since the tilto will only be playing SOMEWHAT like the machine, and we're dealing with approximations anyway), I'm going to be looking for any hand that has at least 54.5% equity against the machine hands as a whole (i.e., a little safety margin). I'll post further results as I get them worked out. | ||
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| Re: playing against tiltos: some odds, Aisthesis, 29. Nov 2003 17:43 | ||
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| Well, my first result definitely confirms Formless' views: 99 isn't enough to call the machine on the above scenario. The overall equity result is actually 48.76%, so you in fact LOSE money on it. What happens is basically that you win a little over 50% of the time (typically about 55% unsuited, 52% suited) against everything but the big pairs, but since you lose almost always against the big pairs, the winnings on the other hands are insufficient to compensate. Actually, that narrows things down already quite a bit. I'll see what I get on AK and JJ next. | ||
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| Re: playing against tiltos: some odds, Aisthesis, 29. Nov 2003 18:22 | ||
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| JJ is enough, with overall equity of 60.30%. Just as a guess on TT, after looking how the various odds changed on JJ, I don't think it will quite meet my 55% guideline, but it should hold up against my simulated tilto--perhaps indeed just too risky in practice unless the tilto is clearly more liberal in his or her all-in criteria. | ||
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| Re: playing against tiltos: some odds, Formless, 29. Nov 2003 18:37 | ||
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| Wow, nice work. Whatever the results of your tests, I'm sure you will be much the wiser. I just played a Sit & Go and had the following hand: I was heads up and had about 7500 in chips, blinds were 200-400, my opponent had 1900(?). He was on the button and raised all-in to 2100(?), something he had been doing frequently. So about 1700 for me to call a 2500 pot. I was pretty sure he was raising with at least any ace, and probably any king. Qx, Jx, xx, all of these seemed likely. There are some points when it is heads up NL that you just have to shove your chips in regardless of your cards, and this opponent knew that and was playing accordingly. I had Kd4d. Even if I was 50-50 to win this, I am getting better than that in pot odds, so I can take a little the worst of it. The important thing is I get a chance to bust my opponent for 1500. I had previously folded A6o to one of his allins for the same amount because he hadn't raised enough yet to warrant a call. But after a few more hands, I was pretty sure what my opponent would do. I know what I would do with his short stack and a hand like J9o. So I called, spiked a K on the flop and won. He had Q6o, which happens to be one of my favourite hands, when s00ted of course. This is just to give you an idea of what is going through my mind when playing a maniac. I hope this helps. If you still want to play, UB is much better for me, I have a new account and some money there, it is also the only site where my nick is Formless. Any game or amount is fine, but ten bucks won't hurt me enough when you beat me, so....;-) How's the 7th at 7? | ||
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| Re: playing against tiltos: some odds, Aisthesis, 29. Nov 2003 22:03 | ||
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| Some very interesting thoughts here! I'm going to have to re-read it a few times to digest... :) As to our game... :), on UB I set up an account the week before the UPF tourney but haven't paid anything in yet. I'll have to admit I don't like the interface very well either (played a few play money games just to get the hang of it and see if it might grow on me but it didn't). Do you have a pokerstars account with money in it? If so, I'm sure we can find each other. I'm on almost every night (and sometimes days) under "Aisthesis." While I don't know just how good you are, the reason I was wanting to go down to $10 (for now) is that I feel pretty much certain that I'm the underdog here. I don't have a problem paying $11 for the lesson in heads-up, particularly if I can at least make it last for a good while. With $50, I'd particularly feel like a complete idiot if I lost in like 15 mins., and while I do pretty well against just random online players, I have no idea how the thing would unfold other than my basic assumption that you're definitely the favorite... :) Anyhow let me know about possibilities... The 7th probably won't be good unfortunately, as some friends and I are planning an all-nighter watching zany comedies on the 6th, so if all goes according to plan, I'll probably be a total zombie on the 7th.... | ||
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| tourney final stages, Aisthesis, 29. Nov 2003 23:58 | ||
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| Yes, some very good ideas on final tourney stage there. I've usually been fortunate enough lately, if I can make it to the final two or three, to be on the big rather than the small stack, but your post reminds me a lot of a situation I had in a tourney about a week ago. I'm on big stack (I think over 10,000) vs. two very good opponents, each with about 2,000 left. Blinds I think were also something like 200/400. One of them, who ended up getting 3rd, had a strategy much like the guy you were playing: Hit the all-in fairly often early (but obviously with some selectivity, too) in the attempt to double up and get back in the game. The other guy, who was more cautious and ended up with 2nd (he was actually pretty tough in the final heads-up despite his chip disadvantage), I can really only describe as kind of playing his hands as best he could given the chip standings. He tried more often to see the flop before going all-in. I basically tried to wait for a good solid hand to catch the more aggressive player on an all-in while trying to wear the more cautious player down, again with appropriate holdings. In that case, I was happy with my play with big stack but wondered at the time which of my two opponents had the better small-stack strategy--perhaps actually mixing up the two is best when you have the small stack. Particularly with low pairs in a 3-way like that, you almost have to go all in from the small stack. But maybe also try playing some hands like T8o or QXo from SB unraised and then play the flop pretty much straight depending on how you catch. I don't know, I really hate playing the small stack. Depending on how bad the stack differences are, ultimately you really almost have to get lucky at least once and often twice. Once in a while, if you can make it to the final two, you can run into someone who's too passive in the heads-up and make a comeback just by outplaying the big stack--but it's HARD... | ||
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| Re: playing against tiltos: some odds, Aisthesis, 29. Nov 2003 22:07 | ||
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| ok, just finished up with AKs, and it actually did better than JJ at 64.78% equity. And I fudged to its disadvantage in quite a few cases (for example, on QJs, I took the figure for AdKd vs. QcJc and didn't even bother with QdJd, which does a fair amount worse--same in all similar instances). So, AKs definitely qualifies against the tilto-machine. I'll post my conclusions from all this back in the strategy section. | ||
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| Re: playing against tiltos: some odds, PairTheBoard, 30. Nov 2003 00:51 | ||
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| Have you seen Sklansky's article in this week's CardPlayer? Some interesting concepts along these lines. | ||
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| Re: playing against tiltos: some odds, Aisthesis, 30. Nov 2003 10:16 | ||
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| Actually, no, thanks for the tip! I'll have to check it out. | ||
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| Re: playing against tiltos: some odds, Aisthesis, 30. Nov 2003 10:51 | ||
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| Yeah, the Sklansky article was very interesting--looking forward to seeing the ratings he comes up with on heads-up starting hands. On my figures, I actually went through every single hand of the given sort (only exceptions being taking some averages based on suit choices that made small differences in equity). He's dealing with a different situation there, and the results will be extremely useful for heads-up. Also the Roy article on maniacs covers pretty much all the aspects. I'll post some comments and questions back in the strategy section. | ||
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| Re: playing against tiltos: some odds, Schuster, 30. Nov 2003 12:58 | ||
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| They went through this on the 2+2 forums a few weeks ago. You can probably still find the thread. He had someone else work out the stack values for every hand so they are listed in there somewhere as well. Lee | ||
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| Re: playing against tiltos: some odds, Aisthesis, 30. Nov 2003 15:47 | ||
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| Hey, thanks for the tip! I'll have to check it out. | ||
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| Re: playing against tiltos: some odds, Aisthesis, 30. Nov 2003 16:06 | ||
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| I couldn't find the thing after thumbing through a bunch of the pages in the holdem section (I must say I don't like the way they have organized their board on that site--or maybe I just haven't figured out how to use it...). Any tips on where to look? | ||
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| Re: playing against tiltos: some odds, Schuster, 30. Nov 2003 16:33 | ||
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| The thread starts here: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=382772&page=3&view=expanded&sb=5&o=14&fpart= Lee | ||
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| Re: playing against tiltos: some odds, Aisthesis, 30. Nov 2003 19:12 | ||
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| Awesome, Lee, thanks! | ||
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| Karlson-Sklansky rankings, Aisthesis, 1. Dec 2003 16:51 | ||
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| This is an interesting approach to rating hands. What conclusions did you (or any others familiar with this whole thing) draw? Do you think it's a valid way to rate the strength of hands in a heads-up? If it's exclusively restricted to the SB vs. BB situation of the Sklansky article, I guess it's still interesting but awfully specialized. | ||
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| Re: Karlson-Sklansky rankings, Schuster, 1. Dec 2003 17:30 | ||
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| The obvious implication is a new, much more specialized version of his "system" for moving all-in during the course of no limit tournaments. It's nice information to have and to use, but I sure hope it doesn't get published very widely because it will just encourage more "move-in specialists" to play tournaments, and they drive me batty. Lee | ||
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| Re: Karlson-Sklansky rankings, Aisthesis, 1. Dec 2003 19:10 | ||
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| Ah, ok, I see, not familiar with the system but I agree fully with the aggravation of having people do it... :) I'm still a big fan of trying not to risk big until at least half the field has been cleared out--if possible until in the money. Of course neither of those is really possible... presumably less so with their "system." I'll have to explore their site more to see if I can figure out more about what they're really up to. Do you think the scores have any validity at all as ratings for heads-up hands? You obviously can't compare hands directly there due to the intransitivity aspect (A>B>C>A...). | ||
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