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Bad Cards, Jojo, 29. Nov 2003 13:48
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Hey everyone, I still consider myself a very new poker player and I am just looking for some reassurance.
I have only been playing texas poker for not even 2 months. I have been fortunate to be up every week since my first 2 weeks (Up considerably). I have turned into an semi-tight player, aggressive after the flop. I play about 25 percent of my flops playing PL 25,50 and 2/4. I generally seem to win between 5-13 percent of my hands.
All the sudden, I hit the wall this week, and it's weird because it started on monday and hasn't stopped since, since being saturday. I am winning between 2-4 percent of my hands all week, with at least 300 hands being played per day. I am fortunate to be up, although a very small gain comparative to prior weeks. I have easily sustained the last 2000 hands with less than 5 percent win rate. I play aggressive after the flop, so I don't bow out unless I already knew I was beat (obviously a few bluffers get in there).
Is this just a normal cycle of playing texas?
Have people had even longer streaks of dead cards or win rate?
I would really appreciate some feedback to kind of set me in line before I go on tilt :).
I was fortunate to go on a rush for about 15 minutes which allowed me to get out of the hole and have a gain to show for the week, but that rush quickly dissapeared into another 1000 hand drought.
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Re: Bad Cards, ReMMy, 29. Nov 2003 14:12
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Jojo,

This is completely normal, but it's possible that you are not playing as tight as you think, or that you are being overly aggressive.

You may want to try calculating your Standard Deviation to see how big your swings are. Not sure how helpful this is in PL, I only play limit and NL...

Bottom line is that you will run into some very long winning streaks and some very long losing streaks at times, it is more important to minimize your losses during these losing streaks than maximizing your winnings when the cards are good(that tends to fall into place on its own)

Keep your cool, avoid tilting and continue to work on your game.

Good luck,
ReMMy
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Re: Bad Cards, ADAM THE EXPERT, 29. Nov 2003 14:29
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DEAR JOJO

TWO WEEKS!!! HA HA HA TEE HEEE!! MY FRIEND, PROFESSIONAL

POKER PLAYERS, LOOK AT HOW THEY'ER DOING, ON A

MINIMUM, ABSOLUTE MINIMUM, OF A QUARTERLY BASIS.


THE FLUCUATIONS IN POKER, ARE SO GREAT, MANY


PLAYERS ONLY LOOK AT RESULTS, ON A yearly!! BASIS.


ALSO REMEMBER, THAT THE GAME YOU HAVE CHOSEN

TO PLAY, TEXAS HOLD EM, IS MORE BINGO, THAN IT

IS POKER!! AT A LARGER LIMIT, WHERE EVERYONE AND

THEIR BROTHER, DOES NOT AUTOMATICALLY

CALL, JUST BECAUSE THEY HAVE A TINY PIECE OF THE FLOP,


WHERE AN ACE KING, CAN WIN, UNIMPROVED.


WHERE YOU CAN ' RUN PLAYS" ON PEOPLE,

HOLD EM IS NOT THAT BAD OF A GAME, BUT NOT REALLY

SUITED TOWARDS INTERNET PLAY


(CRITIAL TO SEE ONE'S OPPONENTS)


THERE IS AN EEEEEEEEENORMOUS AMOUNT OF LUCK,

BETWEEN THE FIRST TWO CARDS, AND THE FLOP.


YOU LITERALLY CAN GET ACE KING SUITED, ALL NIGHT,

AND HAVE THE FLOP COME 5 6 7 OF A DIFFERENT SUIT.



THE GOOD NEWS IS: THE GAME IS STILL HIGHLY BEATABLE,

BUT YOU WILL EXPERIENCE GREAT FLUCUATIONS.


PERHAPS YOU ARE DOING SOMETHING WRONG!!


YOU SAY YOU HAVE BECOME A TIGHT PLAYER, YET

AGGRESSIVE BEFORE THE FLOP.


WELL, THE TIME TO BE AGGRESSIVE, IS BEFORE THE

FLOP!!! (AND, THE OTHER STREETS, AS WELL)


ONCE THOSE SUCKERS HAVE THEIR BOTTEM PAIR, THREE

FLUSH, THREE STRAIGHT, ETC. IT'S TOO LATE!!


OF COURSE, THIS DOES NOT MEAN, THAT YOU CAN

GET PLAYERS OUT EVERY TIME, BUT IF YOU OBSERVE

THAT AT LEAST SOME PLAYERS GET OUT, WHEN SOMEONE

RAISES, YOU ABSOLUTELY MUST, MUST MUST

RAISE BEFORE THE FLOP, WITH ALL GROUP ONE HANDS,

AND MOST GROUP TWO HANDS.


AND, OCCASIONALLY, SOME GROUP THREE HANDS.


I WILL INCLUDE THEM HERE, FOR ALL THOSE OUT

THERE, WHO DON'T OWN A COPY OF THE CLASSIC

'HOLD EM POKER, FOR ADVANCED PLAYERS" BY

DAVID SKLANSKY AND MASON MALMUTH



GROUP ONE HANDS: AA KK QQ JJ AKsuited


GROUP TWO HANDS: TEN TEN AQsuited AJs KQs AK


GROUP THREE HANDS: 99 JTs QJs KJs ATs AQ



(GEE, I HOPE I'M NOT IN TROUBLE WITH SKLANSKY AND

MALMUTH, FOR LISTING THOSE HANDS HERE)

OH , WELL, I DON'T HAVE ANY FINDABLE ASSETS, ANYWAY



OF THE GROUP TWO HANDS, I WOULD NOT RAISE WITH

THE POCKET TENS, AS THEIR PRIMARY FUNCTION, IS

TO MAKE SETS AND STRAIGHTS, WHEREUPON YOU

WANT MANY PLAYERS IN THE POT. ALSO, THERE IS JUST

TOO DARN GOOD OF A CHANCE, THAT OVERCARD(S) WILL

HIT, MAKING YOUR TENS USELESS.


ALSO, THE AJs PRIMARY STRENGTH IS TO MAKE FLUSHES

AND TWO PAIR, AND YOU ALSO WILL WANT MANY PLAYERS

IN-ALSO THE LARGE DANGER OF AN OVERCARD, AS

THERE ARE TWO THAT CAN HIT, THE TIMES THAT

YOU PAIR YOUR JACK, AND NOT THE ACE.



TO MIX UP YOUR PLAY , I WOULD SUGGEST RAISING

WITH THE GROUP THREE HANDS, ABOUT HALF OF THE

TIME, ESPECIALLY ONCE EVERYONE IS ALREADY IN THE

POT FOR ONE BET.

THESE HANDS, HAVE A GOOD POTENTIAL, TO MAKE

A HAND, THAT WILL STAND UP AGAINST A LARGE FIELD,

EXCEPT FOR THE AQ, WHICH REALLY IS A HAND THAT

IS ONLY PLAYABLE, UNDER THE RIGHT CIRCUMSTANCES.


BE VERY CAREFUL, WITH AQ, IN EARLY POSITION, OR

WHEN MANY PLAYERS HAVE ALREADY CALLED.




NEXT, I WOULD SUGGEST PLAYING SOME 20 THROUGH 50

BUY IN MULTI TABLE TOURNAMETNS.


SURE, THESE ARE HARD TO WIN, BUT VERY LUCRATIVE, WHEN

YOU DO.


YOU WILL GET GOOD AND BAD LUCK IN POKER, SO YOU

WANT TO PUT YOURSELF IN A POSITION, TO MAKE A TON

OF MONEY, IF THIS IS TO BE YOUR LUCKY DAY.




A.T.E
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Re: Bad Cards, ReMMy, 29. Nov 2003 15:13
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I'm not sure I agree with the bingo part. Low limit is simply a different game than the higher limits. It becomes much more mathematical, you need to play your cards with the assumption that your opponents will NOT fold. If you can't win with AK every hand(assuming your opponents do not know you always have AK) then you are simply too stubborn for low limit games. You need to release a top pair hand when there is a lot of action from multiple people, you may have had the best hand b4 the flop, but you don't anymore...

Bingo is strictly a game of luck, no fold em holdem CAN be beat, you just need to be patient...

As far as the quarterly evaluation part, the luck factor can indeed go longer than 3 months, but you can and should still evaluate your standing much more regularly. If your down for the week, there may be a reason, look back and evaluate your play, maybe you can find a leak to plug...

Good luck,
ReMMy
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Re: Bad Cards, Jojo, 29. Nov 2003 17:49
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Interesting post adam....
Maybe you misunderstood the question though. I've read other posts by you and I know you can be a bit "Eccentric", but you obivously have poker talent or people, I don't think, would put up with you.
Since you are undoubtedly the great poker talent you say you are, you must keep track of your hand histories on some level.
All I was really wondering is if an experienced player, like yourself, would be up for saying that is it common for a streak of thousands of hands to go by with a terrible win rate? (Thank you remmy for your feedback!) Being very new, I was just looking for a bit of reassurance.

Jojo
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