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Server Time: 8/30/2008 7:13:09 AM PACIFIC |
 Odds of making a hand..., mblmusic, 29. Nov 2003 08:03 | ||
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| I am confused about the correct way of calculating the odds of making a hand; please tell me if I am reasoning this basic example incorrectly. In a 10 person game there are 29 cards left after the flop. If I have only 4 outs drawing to a gut shot straight, there are only 4 cards that can make my straight, so the odds are 29/4=7.25:1. If I have 8 outs drawing to an open ended straight the odds are 29/8= 3.625:1. etc. etc. etc. | ||
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| Re: Odds of making a hand..., ReMMy, 29. Nov 2003 09:28 | ||
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| MBL, You are assuming that none of your 4 outs were dealt to the 9 players at the table. Since you can't know either way, you have to add those 18 cards into the deck. Therefore you have 4 outs out of 47 available cards on the turn and then 4 outs out of 46 cards on the river. Hope that helps, ReMMy | ||
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| Re: Odds of making a hand..., mblmusic, 1. Dec 2003 16:03 | ||
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| ReMMy, If I have 4 outs out of 47 on the turn, does that mean then that I need 12:1 pot odds in order to call? For an open ended straight draw does that mean I need 6:1 pot odds in order to call? What should be the pot odds to draw a flush if you have 2 Hearts in your hand and you flop 2 Hearts? MBL | ||
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| Re: Odds of making a hand..., Candide, 3. Dec 2003 08:43 | ||
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| There are two ways to look at your out odds on the flop. One is what are the odds of hitting it on the turn. This is very straight forward...# of outs over 47 unknowns in texas holdem. so for a flush draw, you have 9 outs with 47 cards, 4.22 to 1 on hitting it on the next card. However, if you want to know what the odds are of hitting it on either of the next 2 cards, then you flip it around and figure the chance of NOT hitting it... So on the turn, there are 9 "good" cards and 38 "bad" cards. 38/47 = .8085. The river it will be 37/46 = .8043. Since this is dependent, you multiply those for your over all %, which is .6503, or 65% of you NOT making your flush. Of course, that means 35% you WILL make it. To go from % to odds, you simply do 65/35 which equals 1.86 to 1. So everytime you play a flush draw to the river, you will roughly make it every third time. One thing to remember is when using odds to see to the river, on the flop you must factor in the amount you expect to call on the turn if you miss too. So you may expect to call not only this one small bet, but one big bet as well. You also add in the money you expect your opponents to put in. Of course, you have greater implied odds perhaps for when you DO hit it, you will get more money perhaps on the river, and turn some times as well (should you raise). Jason | ||
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| Re: Odds of making a hand..., David Harris, 6. Dec 2003 23:52 | ||
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| After the flop, there are 47 possibilities to make your hand. | ||
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