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Server Time: 1/8/2009 5:26:47 AM PACIFIC |
 Bad run take a look at the numbers, Blade, 28. Nov 2003 21:56 | ||
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| I am on a bit of a bad run of late after being out of town for work and being unable to play for a month. I am concerned that perhaps my game is not as sharp. I remember about 1-2 months ago somone posted some of there stats and people were able to spot of couple of potential problems. I know specific hands work better and I am currently going through my history and picking out some of ones I have questions about. However, if anyone can see anything that jumps out at them I would appreciate it greatly. I have also moved sites recently and I am concerned that I am not fiding the ideal table. Seeing flop 15% (not including BB) Win rate when saw flop 24% Went to Showdown 29% Win Showdown 55% Raised Preflop 50% of times saw flop voluntarily (7% over all) Action after raise preflop raise 17% Bet 56% Call 3% check 13% fold 5% no flop 4% (This one concerns me the most as the amount of raising/betting seems high) Total Check raised 2% of possible actions Thanks agian for any help and I will get some hands out soon to be more illustrative | ||
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| Re: Bad run take a look at the numbers, Smokey27, 3. Dec 2003 16:26 | ||
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| I think your problem is your showdowns won is low at 55%, I would try to make it 75-80%. Low showdowns won could be two things, some bad luck, or you are staying around on too many bad flops. I think it is odd that you only fold on the flop 4%. Do you raise with Ak preflop? Always? What do you do the 70% of the time you dont get an ace or king? Do you raise with overcards? I see 18% of flops myself and win 3-7% of total hands but, the most important stat for me is showdowns, if you are winnng 3 out of 4 you cant be doing to bad... | ||
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| Re: Bad run take a look at the numbers, iceman5, 3. Dec 2003 16:46 | ||
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| I think it would be hard to win 75-80% of showdowns consistently. It seems to me if you win that high a percentage, that you are folding the best hand too often. I win about 55%, the same as Blade. But I also win about 8% of my total hands (38-40% of hands played) which is more than you so that agrees with my statement that you may be folding the best hand more often than I do. I agree that folding only 4% of the time you see the flop seems too low, although I dont keep stats on that. | ||
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| Re: Bad run take a look at the numbers, Blade, 3. Dec 2003 17:18 | ||
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| Those percentages only apply to times I have raised preflop not in total but I agree that I have been playing too aggressively and that I need to slow down and pick my spots more with over cards instead of betting out. Of course having KK with a flop of K92 beat by runner runner 2's followed closely by having AA beat by QQ not with a set but by a river str8n didn't help either but it only helps to worry about what we have control over. The rest is just b****ing, which while fun doesn't really help. | ||
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| Re: Bad run take a look at the numbers, iceman5, 3. Dec 2003 17:26 | ||
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| There still should be more than 4% of the time that you raise before the flop, that you fold on the flop. The most obvious ones of the top of my head would be...you have JJ and raise 2 limpers. The flop has 1 or 2 overcards and someone bets and/or it gets raised before it gets to you. Also how about you raise with AQ. A king flops and someone bets and/or raises. You cant call with one overcard. What if you raise with AK and the flop comes QQJ. If there is a bet I would think you would have to fold that also. Anyway, 4% seems low. | ||
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| Re: Bad run take a look at the numbers, Blade, 3. Dec 2003 17:32 | ||
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| Those situations are easy but your right about the 4% being low. In fact the more I think about it, it seems way too low. The problem I seem to have is when I have two overcards and a rag board. I tend to bet out with the strategy of folding to a raise. This of course is a ridiculous strategy agaisnt callling stations who will do nothing but call my flop and turn bet with bottom pair costing me 1 1/2 BB. After writing this it seems even more retarded that I fell into this trap in the first place. Thanks for the second look as it helped me to examine things more closely and not to settle for "bad luck" | ||
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| Re: Bad run take a look at the numbers, Smokey27, 3. Dec 2003 18:27 | ||
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| I am very tight post flop so it is probably true that i lay down more winners than most. However I am aiming for 75-80% winners overall I (refering to my journal) actually average 66.5%. Ironic concept you may be throwing away money if you average 100% of showdowns won... | ||
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| Re: Bad run take a look at the numbers, Piers Majestyk, 3. Dec 2003 19:52 | ||
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| most of your stats are in line with what I am showing with the exception that i am winning around 33% of pots I voluntarily enter (which is quite a bit above what you are showing) and 52% at showdown I haven't figured out the filter for raising preflop yet but I think that 50% is WAY to high. I also think that anyone winning at a 75% to 80% clip over time is probably losing money. I could be wrong but that seems like an extremely high rate for a showdown number. I am just guessing but I think your problems stem from wasting too many bets post flop on hands like AK and AQ that miss because at 15% seeing flop I am sure you are coming in with very good cards you just have to learn to get away from them when you are likely beat. Good luck. | ||
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