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Server Time: 2/13/2012 4:54:59 PM PACIFIC |
 dealing with tiltos revisited, Aisthesis, 28. Nov 2003 13:49 | ||
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| Well, the last time I posted something along these lines was after an evening dominated by a tilto. But I was just rethinking one of the situations and was inclined to play a little safer. Situation: Pre-flop tilto (or just maniac) who is going all in (hence NL) once in a while pre-flop. No one has yet called to see holdings. When do you call the all-in? I'm wanting 55% win rates against average holdings and, running a few samples through pokerstove, reached the following conclusion: 1) the pre-flop all-in is occurring more than 15% of the time (I'm willing to go with the percentage after the 3rd time the play has been made). Here, the all-in really shouldn't be restricted to pocket pairs. Typical should be hands like KJo, maybe AX, maybe also pocket pairs. So I'm thinking a call is in order with AK (open or suited), AQ, or 99-AA. Running AQ against KJ I got a 62% win-rate, and I think that's plenty. 99 is just shy of 55% (presumably because it's starting to reduce straight chances for KJ). 88 is still over 50% but is starting to get on the risky side. 2) all-in occurring less than 15% of the time (say around 10%). Here, it's looking to me like possibly any pocket pairs are candidates for the all-in, maybe also AK and AQ. So, I'm thinking one needs at least TT-AA to call. Does this sound like a reasonable balance between keeping risks within reason and not missing winning opportunities? Or am I being too aggressive or too tight here? | ||
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| Re: dealing with tiltos revisited, Formless, 28. Nov 2003 16:29 | ||
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| To me, this sounds much too loose. You may want to re-evaluate some fundamentals such as calling with smaller pairs. The system sounds too rigid, you need to account for players behind you, of course. Avoid calling raisers in poker. Let the tilto have the blind money, unless it is shorthanded or you are shortstacked. I hope this helps. | ||
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| Re: dealing with tiltos revisited, Aisthesis, 28. Nov 2003 17:53 | ||
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| I'm not sure I exactly understand where you're coming from here. It's not really the blinds I'm worried about, just when it is advisable to call down a certain type of maniac or tilto (relative to the all-in, the blind is such a minimal consideration that it's pretty much irrelevant). I have run into this type of maniac/tilto a few times and just wanted to have a general strategy ready the next time it happens. I'm sure we agree that in a ring NLHE game (let's say with more or less even stacks just as hypothesis), going all-in pre-flop on any group of hands that occur roughly 20% of the time is not a sound poker strategy at a full table. However, it would almost be a sound strategy if no one ever called except with AA: Basically, if the maniac/tilto can pull in an average of 3 BB every time there's not an AA (which should occur about 4% of the time among 8 other players, but if the tilto is making sure he has an A at least half the time, that ought to get the AA chances down to less than 3%), after 100 attempts he will have pulled in about 97 x 3 BB = 291. On the other hand, he loses let's just say always to AA 3 times for a total loss of 300 BB (assuming a stack of 100 BB). I think one can do better than that in taking money away from the tilto/maniac. I guess one could probably answer the question game theoretically under certain assumptions regarding holdings for the maniac (What maximizes his losses in what essentially becomes a one on one?), but it seems like a very complex calculation unless one does a lot of fudging (as I already did on the AA scenario). You're definitely right that one does need to take into account that, if there are several players left to act after you, one of them might also be sitting on a bomb hand (AA or KK). And that would definitely drive the criteria upwards (moreover, any player to act after you is getting much better odds on his bet). Would your general "policy" be to just restrict the calls to AA and KK? Maybe it's the correct way to go in light of all the uncertainties involved. But it definitely means that the opportunity to capitalize is going to be rare. One example from the specific case I'm thinking of: A guy is making a pre-flop all-in about 20-25% of the time with no discernable pattern with regard to position or number of bets to be stolen. This was happening when I arrived at the table, continued for probably around 20-30 hands, and no one had called yet. I was sitting across the table from him with TT when he makes the move. I went ahead and called. He shows KT suited, didn't hit the K or the flush, and I win. I was of course sweating a lot while the cards were turned in particular fear of the K, but I still think it was a good bet (albeit definitely risky--and I was lucky that his T was essentially dead from the beginning). I'd be very interested in your experiences with things like this and how you (or others) decided to respond. While it's fairly rare, it can change things pretty dramatically but should also be quite profitable... | ||
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| Re: dealing with tiltos revisited, Formless, 29. Nov 2003 06:52 | ||
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| Hi A, I've read both of your posts in this threads carefully. I've noticed all of your posts are well thought out and most are in the form of questions, that's why I take the time to reply. My reply is the same as my first, it may seem terse and pedantic, but there's not much more to say. Beauty is truth is simplicty, or something like that. Too loose, and based on poor fundamentals, in my opinion. I'd rather not say what my qualifications are and experiences have been. There are no good players, only good ideas, good plays. I hope my suggestions stand on their merit. If you are from Missouri ;-), then let's buyin for fifty bucks at a Heads Up NL table at UB and play some cards, maybe that would help. In any case, good luck on the tables. Formless | ||
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| Re: dealing with tiltos revisited, Aisthesis, 29. Nov 2003 11:23 | ||
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| I do appreciate your response, which I would describe more as "cryptic" than terse or pedantic... :) One thing I definitely do see from it the more I think about it is that the calling criteria have to be very high if you are just to the left of the tilto/maniac (probably AA or KK regardless--maybe AA only), since you're effectively offering an all-in to the rest of the table as well. If you're on the immediate right of the tilto/maniac, then you can call with less if everyone else has folded. I'll try to post some partial answers to this problem in the odds section. Hope you'll check them out and let me know what you think. As to your play offer... how about $10 heads-up SnG on pokerstars? | ||
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| Re: dealing with tiltos revisited, Aisthesis, 29. Nov 2003 23:12 | ||
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| Ok, my odds calculations definitely confirmed that Formless is entirely correct here and my criteria for dealing with the pre-flop type tilto/maniac were way too loose: 99 actually loses money to a random distribution of hands with both cards over T. JJ is fairly safe against a tilto going all-in pre-flop at least 15% of the time--if, for the moment, we forget about non-tiltos to act after you. AKs is even safer IF (!!!!!) you're absolutely sure the tilto is not giving big favoritism to pairs. It gives big equity against all other non-pair hands but actually LOSES to all pairs (doesn't lose much once you get below AA and KK, but still). If a tilto/maniac is making the all-in move 10% of the time of the less, I think calling with AKs is getting pretty risky. If it's closer to 20%, it's probably a good bet. While I didn't test AKo, the results should be fairly similar. But for myself, I'm going to view AKs as minimum in this type of situation simply because of the pair danger. Formless' positional observations are obviously right. So, one needs to distinguish 3 cases: 1) sitting just to the left of tilto/maniac, with lots of players to act after you. Here, I think AA and KK are the only tenable hands--KK having obvious risks--but hey, even your AA may not hold up all the way to the river... 2) sitting across from tilto/maniac, with a few players to act after you. Here, I think it's pretty safe to add QQ if only 2 or 3 players can still call. If it's 4 or more, one should probably still stick with only AA and KK, since anything else is going to lose big if one of the non-tiltos happens to be sitting on AA or KK (the probability is fairly low of that happening, but you're putting an enormous amount of money in the pot, too). 3) finally, if you're just to the right of the tilto, with at most 1 player left who can still call, you've probably got a good bet with JJ-AA as well as AKs. If there's no one left and you feel secure in handling big swings in bankroll, you can even think about calling with TT, particularly if the tilto/maniac is going all-in at least 20% of the time. Is this starting to sound like a more reasonable strategy? | ||
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