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Server Time: 12/1/2008 3:41:09 PM PACIFIC |
 online gambling tips, ebet, 27. Nov 2003 01:54 | ||
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| Don't gamble with your winning chances ! Gambling can be fun and under the right conditions can result in a fortune - or ruin your future if you are careless. You need to be armed with the right information before you take the plunge. Often your gut feelings need to be supplanted with hard cold facts about various gambling options, rules, pitfalls and techniques. This has loads of articles on a wide range of topics related to gambling and betting with painstaking attention to detail. Learn all about gambling tips, traps, inside information, techniques and various methodologies. Thank you. http://www.ebetcom.com | ||
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| Re: online gambling tips, Cyndy, 27. Nov 2003 02:41 | ||
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| Hi- I just read your web page. There is a piece that states "online sports betting techniques". It continued to say, "the odds are in your favor when you know the correct strategies so why not?" I could not disagree with you more. The odds will ALWAYS be with the house. Or should I say "Bookie". You may give "good tips" but I bet nobody really wins in the course of their lifetime through sportsbetting unless they get lucky enough to win and then never bet again. Ever! OR, they go into the "bookie business"!! My sportsbetting tip: Don't make a habit of it. Cyndy | ||
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| Re: online gambling tips, Roy Cooke, 27. Nov 2003 07:16 | ||
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| Good thinking Cyndy :-) Life is Good :-) Roy Cooke | ||
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| Re: online gambling tips, Mark Barnett II, 4. Dec 2003 10:59 | ||
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| there are people who make a living sports betting that arent bookies. think of the vig as rake is all *you have to have a bigger edge in general to overcome the vig but it can be done* remember the house doesnt care who wins or loses on sports bets their objective is to post a line where equal money is wagered on both sides thereby guarenteeing them money. reason why so few do it, the amount of research required to get an edge over the house is massive *remember they have to do massive research to come up with the line in the first place* Sklansky even mentions sports betting in one of his books along with other ways you can have an edge over other bettors. have a friend who worked in accounting in a casino and knew at least one person who could do it *college basketball i think is the best choice* Rule #1 of Poker Circumstances alter cases Rule #2 NEVER forget rule #1 | ||
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| EV and Setting Sports Odds ..., Alan Merriam, 4. Dec 2003 13:01 | ||
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| I agree that professional sports gambling can be a moneymaker. It was said remember the house doesnt care who wins or loses on sports bets their objective is to post a line where equal money is wagered on both sides thereby guarenteeing them money. I believe this to be a commonly believed false statement. The house's objective is to post a line where they maximize their income within certain risk tolerances. Equalizing the bets minimizes the risk tolerances to zero. It is a factor but not the only factor. The oddsmaker employed by the casino first determines the true point spread. He then considers the effect on betting demand by altering the point spread. For example, Powerhouse Team vs. Powderpuff Team. The oddsmaker predicts that Powerhouse team is a 10 point favorite. At this spread, it is a coinflip who will win. The oddsmaker also knows that POWERhouse has has MANY FANS who will bet on the game. These emotional betters are not as point sensitive as the uninvolved gambler. They are also unlikely to bet on the underdog regardless of the point spread. The professional oddsmaker realizes that he posts the true line 10pts, he will receive 200K on the underdog and 2M on the POWERhouse team. Since he views this as a 50-50 chance his EV is negative (220K Vig + 50% chance of a 1.8M loss for - 680K) he will not post this line. The oddsmaker calculates that if he posts a 30 point line, the money will equalize. The professional gamblers will raise the bets on the underdog and only the most diehard and foolish fans will bet on the POWERhouse. (600K on each side, 600K Expected Value to the house is now only 120K but the risk profile is non-existent.) The oddsmaker calculates that if adjusts the line to +17, he will pickup most of the professional money (600K on underdogs and lower the POWERhouse bets to 1.8M.) He also figures that the POWERHOUSE has a 30% chance of overcoming the additional ten point spread. He then calculates his EV as 240K vig and 70% chance of earning an additional 1.2M when Powerhouse doesn't cover the spread. EV = 1.08M As you can clearly see, it wouldn't make sense for the oddsmaker to set odds that considered only the betting patterns. He also takes into account his view of true odds. The professional makes money by either being a better oddsmaker than the casino or by absorbing a higher level of risk. Any comments | ||
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