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Server Time: 8/30/2008 7:10:00 AM PACIFIC |
 Win rate + Moving up, Blade, 26. Nov 2003 22:47 | ||
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| Does anyone have any opinions as to how many hands a player should sustain a win rate (2+bb/hr) before considering moving up. This of course assumes that the player also has a sufficent bankroll. My thinking is that after 10,000 hands a general idea can be formed as to whether or not a player hs truly demonstrated the ability to win at a certain level, But this is nothing more than a guess on my part. Thoughts appreciated. | ||
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| Re: Win rate + Moving up, Cyndy, 26. Nov 2003 23:11 | ||
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| Besides having a sufficient bankroll, and many hours logged in at your current limit - you need to be able to beat the players at the next limit and the one after that or you'll show negative results. The competition gets tougher and tougher as you move up in limits - and you should move up to the next limit if you have a solid bankroll, but you also need to be a much stronger player then the ones you are playing against. Cyndy | ||
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| Re: Win rate + Moving up, Blade, 26. Nov 2003 23:16 | ||
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| Hmmm, If I can't beat the players at the next limit before moving up then I will lose money...................who would of thought. | ||
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| Re: Win rate + Moving up, Cyndy, 26. Nov 2003 23:25 | ||
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| okay, sorry. You were interested in how many hands one would need to put in first before he was able to see if he was really beating that limit so he could then move up to the next limit. I don't think that 10,000 hands is enough then, especially if you are playing online poker. But if you put in about 2,000 or 3,000 hours, and you are beating that limit pretty good, with accurate records, then I would move up. Sufficient bankroll, of course. The much better the player verses his competitors, the smaller the bankroll can be. Cyndy | ||
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| Re: Win rate + Moving up, Angel, 26. Nov 2003 23:26 | ||
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| Blade, Good question. More importantly than number of hours or hands played would be your standard deviation. You can often tell within a very small margin of error if you are a winning player or not at a certain level after only a fraction of the time necessary to accumulate 10,000 hands if your SD is low enough (or your swing is subdued enough). On the other hand - 10,000 hands with a high SD very well might be no where near enough hands to be able to tell and usually is - although you could have a very high SD and an extraordinary win rate which would allow 10K hands to be enough - but this combo is as rare as pf aces soooo ..... :) | ||
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| Re: Win rate + Moving up, Blade, 26. Nov 2003 23:43 | ||
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| Thanks I hadn't thought of using the SD calculation you had provided awhile back to help answer my question but I can definently see its use. Im curious, I have Poker Tracker which provides SD, but do you know of any literature that spefically talks about SD and how to intepret and compare actual results. I played around with it some during my finance classes from school but thats about it. I suppose I could run a bunch of wilson sims with various player types and used that as well. | ||
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| Re: Win rate + Moving up, Angel, 26. Nov 2003 23:51 | ||
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| Mason Malmuth talked about it in his book Gambling Theory and other Topics but actually he made some minor errors which turned out to cause larger errors down the line - as so often happens with logarithmic problems. It is still useful though - and it was with his work and a gentleman named Bruce Z's work which inspired me to try and write a layman's version of SD and it's uses - hence the post you referred to. | ||
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| Re: Win rate + Moving up, Barry T, 27. Nov 2003 03:13 | ||
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| Hi, Some of the answer depends on your standard deviation, and how much higher the "next step" is, but yes, ten thousand hands (equivalent to a full time year of playing in a B&M) is a reasonable number to assume you are within 15% of your actual win rate for that game. Of course, 2 B/hr online is the equivalent of 1 BB/hr or less at a B&M, and that is not an amazing win rate. I would generally advise someone making 1 BB/hr at a B&M to stay where they are. If you move this topic to "Money and Bankroll" you might get some better answers. BarryT | ||
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| Re: Win rate + Moving up, Blade, 27. Nov 2003 14:15 | ||
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| You know that actually helps alot. I have been averaging close to 5 BB an hour for some time now but I always thought this was too high and kept waiting fot the luck to run out but perhaps this is right where I should be. | ||
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| Re: Win rate + Moving up, timmer, 27. Nov 2003 13:23 | ||
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| The larger your sample size the more accurate the statistical information derived from it . Along those lines but perhaps a bit more clearly stated, the higher you go and the greater the risk ( risk of ruination vs. reward ratio) the greater the need for increasingly accurate information. The more varied and the more accurate the information you possess the better you will be able to analyze your apparent risk.. So , the higher the limit (or bigger the risk associated with the next limit) the longer you should play and the more varied and accurate statistical information you should seek to derive from the limit preceding it. In fact you should seek to collect even more information from this next limit than from the last , before seeking a new even higher limit. Summary: I believe you should spend longer and longer at each ascending limit in order to accurately gage your expectation on the next limit. timmer | ||
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