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Server Time: 1/8/2009 5:53:35 AM PACIFIC |
 Losing the pot and making money, Mark Gregorich, 22. Nov 2003 08:40 | ||
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| Here's a hand I observed yesterday in the $100-$200 hold'em game at Bellagio: A solid local player raises with QQ and is called on the button by a loose, passive fellow I hadn't seen before. Flop is all small with two diamonds. The local bets through the hand and is called. He checks the river when a king comes. The tourist checks on the button, shows K6 of diamonds, and takes the pot. The local whines about yet another bad beat. In my warped brain, I couldn't help thinking about how LUCKY the local was that his opponent had checked the winner (which the QQ surely would have called). It seemed to me like he just made $200. Mark | ||
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| Re: Losing the pot and making money, timmer, 22. Nov 2003 13:11 | ||
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| on 22. Nov 2003 08:40 Mark Gregorich wrote: > Here's a hand I observed yesterday in the $100-$200 hold'em game at Bellagio: > > A solid local player raises with QQ and is called on the button by a loose, > passive fellow I hadn't seen before. > > Flop is all small with two diamonds. The local bets through the hand and is > called. He checks the river when a king comes. > > The tourist checks on the button, shows K6 of diamonds, and takes the pot. The > local whines about yet another bad beat. > > In my warped brain, I couldn't help thinking about how LUCKY the local was that > his opponent had checked the winner (which the QQ surely would have called). It > seemed to me like he just made $200. > > Mark > Act tually he did well , more than $ 200. You might look at it this way pokenum -h qs qc - kd 6d Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV Qs Qc 1160556 67.78 545972 31.89 5776 0.34 0.679 Kd 6d 545972 31.89 1160556 67.78 5776 0.34 0.321 so if the game is 100 200 hold em and the blinds are .5 & 1 or 150 in blind money. the local raises the pot to $350 and the button calles making the pot $550 so the locals hold on this pot is 67.78% of $550 or $372.79 Preflop. on the flop (considering no card higher than 9 and no two cards less than 2 gapped and 2 suits 1 diamonds - like 9d 5h 2d for example pokenum -h qs qc - kd 6d -- 9d 5h 2d Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 9d 2d 5h cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV Qs Qc 523 52.83 467 47.17 0 0.00 0.528 Kd 6d 467 47.17 523 52.83 0 0.00 0.472 our heros hold on the flop money , $200 is 52.83% or $105.66 now considering the turn isnt a diamond and isnt a card to help the button straighten up like a Ts then out heros chances are as follows pokenum -h qs qc - kd 6d -- 9d 5h 2d ts Holdem Hi: 44 enumerated boards containing Ts 9d 2d 5h cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV Qs Qc 32 72.73 12 27.27 0 0.00 0.727 Kd 6d 12 27.27 32 72.73 0 0.00 0.273 Our heros hold on the turn money $400 is 72.73% or $290.92 so on the river a K falls like the Ks and our heros loss on the river is pokenum -h qs qc - kd 6d -- ts 9d 2d 5h ks Holdem Hi: 1 enumerated board containing Ks Ts 9d 2d 5h cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV Qs Qc 0 0.00 1 100.00 0 0.00 0.000 Kd 6d 1 100.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 1.000 Our heros Loss on the money he put in on the river $0.00 is 100% so what our hero actually did on this pot was gain (in equitable value as opposed to realized value ) $372.79+ $105.66 + $290.92 -$0.00 or $769.37 for the money ($500) he injected into the pot . so we can see that our hero gained $269.37 in equitable value for the money $500 he injected into the pot or a equitable return of 35.01% eventhough he lost the pot in the end . Our friend on the button actually missed his only shot at gaining equity (the river) and ensured our heros equitable gain by failing to wager the final $200. | ||
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| Re: Losing the pot and making money, Schuster, 22. Nov 2003 16:40 | ||
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| Not to mention that I'd be more than happy with someone who wants to play a K6s in a raised pot against me. Lee | ||
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| Re: Losing the pot and making money, noiseboy, 24. Nov 2003 09:26 | ||
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| True, you definitely don't want to go complaining about someone who plays K6! They might leave. | ||
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| Re: Losing the pot and making money, ADAM THE EXPERT, 25. Nov 2003 05:45 | ||
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| don't be too sure that the solid player would have called, on the end anyone who is successful at this level, will have a MASSIVE ability to put people on hands, and will have studied his (her) opponents tendencies, and, if those tendencies are towards straight-foward play, well, they just won't pay off that bet ! ! ! As far as the whining, hardly anyone has such emotional control, that they can just see $1000 flying away, and not be upset. Most people who are making a living at this business, do so, with a small fraction of the money, that they actually need. ADAM THE EXPERT GETS A BIG LAUGH, AND THE BANKROLL "REQUIREMENTS" RECOMMENDED BY THE ASSININE AUTHORS HA HA, 200 BIG BETS FOR 10-20 WHAT PLANET ARE YOU FROM?? SO, THE FINANCIAL PRESSURE, WILL MOUNT, AND THE PLAYER, IS UNABLE TO CONTROL HIS TEMPER. PEOPLE PLAYING ON A BANKROLL, THAT IS APPROPRITE FOR THE LIMIT 20,000 FOR TEN TWENTY, 200,000 FOR 100-200 WILL BE ABLE, FINANCIALLY AND EMOTIONALLY, TO WITHSTAND BEATS, AND TO THINK IN TERMS OF" WELL, I PUT MY MONEY IN WITH THE BEST OF IT, THEREFOR, I'M MAKING A LONG-TERM PROFIT. P.S. BEFORE ANYONE COMTEMPLATES ACTUALLY PLAYING POKER, FOR A FULL-TIME LIVING, I'D SUGGEST THAT THEY TALK TO ADAM THE EXPERT, ABOUT THE REALITIES OF THE BUSINESS, AND THE BANKROLL REQUIREMENTS THEREOF. DON'T MORGAGE YOUR FUTURE, BY LISTENING TO THE "200 BIG BETS" CROWD. THAT FIGURE, IS A COMPLETE UTTER JOKE, STRAIGHT OUT OF FANTASY LAND ADAM | ||
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| Re: Losing the pot and making money, shorn, 25. Nov 2003 07:19 | ||
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| And you would know fantasy land when you see it, that is for sure. | ||
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| Re: Losing pot / making money ADAM, timmer, 25. Nov 2003 09:38 | ||
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| Well ADAM you really put you foot in it this time .. Because your (and our) beloved friend Mike Caro is in the 200 big bets crowd. And he just might boot your ass off once and for all for insulting him yet again. In Mike's article subtitled - " Caro's Recommended Bankroll Requirements (for typical winning poker players)" He recommends players playing 10 and 20 to have between 147.75 big bets and 251.80 big bets. That averages out to 197.27 Big bets. This places him clearly within the 200 big bet crowd you so vehemently berate in this post. You ADAM the EXPERT are running risk of being called on to the proverbial carpet for this one. Perhaps you should study a bit more intently before you spout off next time. (For the record I think 300 big bets is as short as you should go for a stand alone bankroll to play in a "Normal" 10 20 HE game. Perhaps a bit more if you never want to have to fund it again . But no where near 1000 big bets as some self proclaimed EXPERTS postulate) Oh yeah THE ALL POWERFULL OZ COMMANDS YOU TO PAY NO ATTENTION TO THAT MAN BEHIND THE CURTAIN of capitals.. BOOM CRASH BANG!! me thinks you been watching too many Judy Garland movies. on 25. Nov 2003 05:45 ADAM THE EXPERT wrote: > > ADAM THE EXPERT GETS A BIG LAUGH, AND THE > > BANKROLL "REQUIREMENTS" RECOMMENDED BY > > THE ASSININE AUTHORS > > HA HA, 200 BIG BETS FOR 10-20 WHAT PLANET ARE YOU > > FROM?? >> > DON'T MORGAGE YOUR FUTURE, BY LISTENING TO THE > "200 BIG BETS" CROWD. > THAT FIGURE, IS A COMPLETE UTTER JOKE, STRAIGHT OUT > > OF FANTASY LAND > > ADAM | ||
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| Re: Losing pot / making money ADAM, noiseboy, 25. Nov 2003 13:55 | ||
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| I think most of the people who recommend more than 300 are talking about when you derive your only income from poker. If this is the case, I think 500-1000 is reasonable because you want your "risk of ruin" to be as low as possible, almost nil, for ruin if you are living off of poker isn't some mathematical concept, it's actual ruin. Also, the buffer makes it easier to take a natural downswing of 150 BBs without losing composure and aggressiveness due to playing scared money. If you have an additional source of steady income, even 200 might not be necessary. I see a lot of older fixed income people in the B&M who generally play very tight and thus have lower fluctuations. They also know if they run bad, another check will come next month. | ||
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| Re: winning poker / losing money/ 1K Bets?, timmer, 26. Nov 2003 09:51 | ||
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| If one relies on poker as their only income stream I would suggest One is not a very good money manager . In this light and for such a individual I would suggest 10,000 big bets for a bankroll. However A stack this size sitting around collecting mold is probably losing much of the worth you can get out of it by playing poker. Inflation alone could cut this stacks worth in half in 10 years. The idea is getting the kind return for whatever chunk of capital you are investing or willing to invest that you need (risk vs reward) . What good is 10,000 or even 1000 big bets if you are only ever going to need 500 and only 400 of that in all but 5% of all probable cases? 600 big bets are losing worth at least at the inflationary rate. You would be better served by putting this money to work for you in another way. A way that outpaces inflation but has less return than that of poker. Less than poker ? You might ask. Yes less than poker. For if this was to return more than poker it would behoove you to leave the money in whatever it is in and rely on this income stream and let the poker income stream die. In fact you might want to take all the money out of the poker income stream and put it in this income stream instead. The sad fact of this is that poker isn't the best way in the world to make money. In fact for most people it is a fricking cruddy one. Most people play for fun and/or to make a little money with some discretionary income they have sitting around. This is fine to each his own. But we are talking about making money in a serious manner. To invest ( or earmark) so much for your poker bank that the return you get from working it ( stated as a percentage) is so low that you would be better off working it elsewhere, or , is so low that in fact its losing its worth to inflation, is making a serious financial error. A much bigger error in fact than occasionally raising 27os into a pile of rocks. I suggest taking 200 big bets* in totally liquid capital and earmark that for your ongoing poker stake. Then if and only if you get ground down to 100 or so big bets initiate another 200 from a somewhat less liquid source. But to have 600, 800 or 1000 big bets laying around gathering mold if simply fiduciary irresponsibility. * You might want to double this if you are playing in an especially high limit or aggressive games. | ||
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| Re: Losing the pot and making money, Mark Gregorich, 25. Nov 2003 11:01 | ||
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| on 25. Nov 2003 05:45 ADAM THE EXPERT wrote: > don't be too sure that the solid player would have called, on the end > > anyone who is successful at this level, will have a > > MASSIVE > > ability to put people on hands, and will have studied his (her) > > opponents tendencies, and, if those tendencies are towards > > straight-foward play, well, they just won't pay off that bet ! ! ! > > Adam; I agree with you in theory. In this case, I am benefiting from some inside information - I know this particular player, and he would have called. However, making this laydown against a player who "has to have it," as was pretty much the case here, is certainly a part of playing top caliber poker. BTW, I didn't recognize you in lower case. And put me down for a copy of the book. Mark | ||
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