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Server Time: 2/13/2012 4:32:15 PM PACIFIC |
 Odds for Dummies, CRCarson, 21. Nov 2003 12:33 | ||
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| I'm new at this so please help me out. I draw AdKh. I have 6 outs to make a pair - AsAcAhKdKcKs. There are 50 cards I have not seen, so my odds of making a pair are 6 out of 50 - 12% chance of making a pair or roughly 7:1 against me. Okay so far? Let me know... The Flop comes Ac9c8d. Now my outs for improvement ON THE TURN are 2 out of 45 for an A to make the set plus 3 out of 45 for a K to make two pair. Right? One thing I'm not sure of is how to calculate the odds or percentages to make the second pair or set with two cards to come. The Turn comes Ks giving me my second pair. I have 4 outs to make a full boat...10.5:1 against me or an 8.7% chance of making it. Now, I'm getting nervous that I ONLY have two pair with one card to go and other players are betting in front of me. What do they have? Trips? Draw to flush or straight? Do I call or fold or bet or check or what? Being a WPT type of guy, I call to see the River and miss the boat when another c hits. I've got two pair, AAKK, but I'm staring down the barrel of a flush or a straight. Normally, I call to the showdown and then lose a lot of play money hands to people who have made their flushes or straights on 5th street. Am I wrong in my odds calculations or just in how I played my hand or both? IMHO, two pair is the most nerve-wracking hand in Hold 'Em. Thanks. | ||
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| Re: Odds for Dummies, Flatout_Mainiac, 21. Nov 2003 13:04 | ||
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| I understand that you want to get the whole concept of odds down and it is important. But you really only need to memorize a few important odds to decide if you should continue on a hand such as the odds of hitting a gutshot or the odds to hit a flush on the river when you have a 4 flush. Don't get caught up in "I have AK so I will pair up the flop X percentage of times". Well a 72o will pair up the same number of times but that hand is all but worthless. You should think more about starting requirements and what your play should be to maximize you hand (which most of the time is fold). I can't give you an analysis of your hand because I have no idea how you played it, what position you had, how many were in, and what was your read. If you give those then myself or someone here will be happy to take a look at the hand for you. Good Luck!!! | ||
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| Re: Odds for Dummies, CRCarson, 22. Nov 2003 06:51 | ||
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| This was a fictitious hand for illustrative purposes...I just wanted to know if I was calculating the outs and the percentages accurately. If I can record a real game, I'll provide fuller details. Randy | ||
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| Re: Odds for Dummies, Flatout_Mainiac, 23. Nov 2003 15:23 | ||
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| The only calculation that you are way off on is hitting a pair on the flop. Since you are getting 3 chances to hit one of the 6 available cards you should hit a pair a little more than 1/3 of the time. | ||
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| Re: Odds for Dummies, ReMMy, 21. Nov 2003 13:50 | ||
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| Carson, Sklansky's books are very good at explaining odds etc to that level. But as Flatout points out, you are approaching this from the wrong angle. You should know the probabilities for making straights and flushes and sets etc. Then play your hand to maximize profit based on those. Once you have mastered that then you can delve into the more precise calculations, until then, this information won't help you that much... Good times, ReMMy | ||
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| Re: Odds for Dummies, CRCarson, 22. Nov 2003 06:53 | ||
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| "You should know the probabilities for making straights and flushes and sets etc." hehe That's exactly the kind of help I'm looking for. I guess my question was too complicated. :-) | ||
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| Re: Odds for Dummies, Candide, 25. Nov 2003 14:54 | ||
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| on 21. Nov 2003 12:33 CRCarson wrote: > I'm new at this so please help me out. > > I draw AdKh. I have 6 outs to make a pair - AsAcAhKdKcKs. There are 50 cards I > have not seen, so my odds of making a pair are 6 out of 50 - 12% chance of > making a pair or roughly 7:1 against me. Okay so far? Let me know... Not ok so far...you have 3 different cards on the flop to hit that with. It is 7.3:1 to hit it on one of those three cards. Since this is independent odds, you add for each one. Here is how you would do it: First card, 50 unknown, 44 bad, 6 good 7.3:1 or 12% Second card(assumes you didn't hit it above), 49 unknown, 43:6=7.2:1 or 12.24% Third card, 48 unknown, 42:6=7:1. or 12.5% The % to hit it on one of the following three is 12.5+12+12.24=36.74 (100-36.74)/36.74=1.72:1 odds. > > The Flop comes Ac9c8d. Now my outs for improvement ON THE TURN are 2 out of 45 > for an A to make the set plus 3 out of 45 for a K to make two pair. Right? One > thing I'm not sure of is how to calculate the odds or percentages to make the > second pair or set with two cards to come. Treat it as one case, not 2. You have 5 outs 2 aces give you a set, 3 kings give you 2 pair. There are 47, not 45 unknown cards. To figure out how to hit it on the turn, here is what you get: 5/47=10.6% chance. 42 bad cards : 5 good cards = 8.4 : 1 Now, you want to know the odds of hitting it on either the turn or the river? This gets tricky. What you really want to know is the dependent odds of MISSING your hand twice, then reverse that to get your odds of hitting. Here we go: 5 outs, 47 unknowns for first card, 46 for the river card. Since it is dependent odds (that is, BOTH events must occur) you multiply the results. 42/47= 89.36% of MISSING on turn 41/46= 89.13% of MISSING on the river 89.36*89.13= 79.65% of MISSING on both. Thus, we have 100-79.65=20.35% of HITTING on one or the other. that is 3.91 to 1 of hitting it on either. > > The Turn comes Ks giving me my second pair. I have 4 outs to make a full > boat...10.5:1 against me or an 8.7% chance of making it. Now, I'm getting > nervous that I ONLY have two pair with one card to go and other players are > betting in front of me. What do they have? Trips? Draw to flush or straight? Do > I call or fold or bet or check or what? > > Being a WPT type of guy, I call to see the River and miss the boat when another > c hits. I've got two pair, AAKK, but I'm staring down the barrel of a flush or a > straight. Normally, I call to the showdown and then lose a lot of play money > hands to people who have made their flushes or straights on 5th street. > > Am I wrong in my odds calculations or just in how I played my hand or both? > IMHO, two pair is the most nerve-wracking hand in Hold 'Em. > > Thanks. Hope that helps. Jason | ||
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| Re: Odds for Dummies, CRCarson, 26. Nov 2003 07:24 | ||
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| Thanks for taking more than a few minutes to correct my errors. I have recently purchased and read four Hold 'Em books including the highly regarded Lee Jones book...none of them explained the issue of inversion when there is an OR situation (you can hit this card on the Turn OR the River). I finally found the answer to this problem on an Internet site (http://www.texasholdem-poker.com). However, your explanation of these concepts is crystal clear. I'm going to print out your reply and add it to my notebook of must reading. Thanks again. | ||
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| Re: Odds for Dummies, Schuster, 26. Nov 2003 08:40 | ||
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| on 25. Nov 2003 14:54 Candide wrote: > on 21. Nov 2003 12:33 CRCarson wrote: > > I'm new at this so please help me out. > > > > I draw AdKh. I have 6 outs to make a pair - AsAcAhKdKcKs. There are 50 cards I > > have not seen, so my odds of making a pair are 6 out of 50 - 12% chance of > > making a pair or roughly 7:1 against me. Okay so far? Let me know... > > Not ok so far...you have 3 different cards on the flop to hit that with. It is > 7.3:1 to hit it on one of those three cards. Since this is independent odds, you add > for each one. Here is how you would do it: > First card, 50 unknown, 44 bad, 6 good 7.3:1 or 12% > Second card(assumes you didn't hit it above), 49 unknown, 43:6=7.2:1 or 12.24% > Third card, 48 unknown, 42:6=7:1. or 12.5% > The % to hit it on one of the following three is 12.5+12+12.24=36.74 > (100-36.74)/36.74=1.72:1 odds. > This is incorrect. By your math, you would be over 100% to see either a spade or a club on the flop. You need to multiply the chances of missing your hand on each card to find the total chance of missing your card, and then go from there. In this case, the odds of hitting on any flop are going to be the bad cards divided by the unknown cards, for each flop card. (44/50) * (43/49) * (42/48). You subtract this number from 1 to get the final answer, in this case, 32.43% or 2.08 to 1. Lee | ||
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| Re: Odds for Dummies, Aisthesis, 26. Nov 2003 10:06 | ||
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| Yep, Lee's quite right. The problem was in the "independent odds" remark, which is not correct: Hitting or not hitting the A or K on the first card does have an influence on probabilities for hitting one on card #2 of the flop, etc. Often (as Lee did in this calculation), it's easiest to calculate the odds for "or" questions (hitting A or K on card 1 OR 2 OR 3) into an "and" (missing A and K on card 1 AND 2 AND 3). For "and"-type calculations, you can just multiply the probabilties. And if the probability for missing something is x, the probability for hitting it is 1-x. | ||
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| Re: Odds for Dummies, Candide, 26. Nov 2003 12:03 | ||
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| Thanks Lee, I realized last night I had screwed that section up as I started thinking about it more. I knew the odds were 2 to 1 or so but was posting as I left work, and it kept bugging me through out the night. Funny since I do basically the same thing correctly further down when figuring odds for hitting it on either of the two cards to come. Unfortunatly I've spent much of the morning in the hospital so never had an extended time to sit down and look over what I messed up. Glad you caught me on it :) Fitting since reading your posts a few months ago helped crystalize it in the first place for me :) | ||
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| Re: Odds for Dummies, Schuster, 26. Nov 2003 13:19 | ||
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| Not a problem, everyone goofs from time to time =) Lee | ||
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