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Server Time: 8/28/2008 1:04:43 AM PACIFIC |
 How to calculate EV, BoatLover88, 21. Nov 2003 09:28 | ||
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| Hi, I'm relatively new to poker and new to this forum. Can someone please explain how to calculate and interpret EV? Thank you. | ||
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| Re: How to calculate EV, Mark Barnett II, 21. Nov 2003 09:58 | ||
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| EV=Expected Value strictly speaking Expected Value=how much a hand will win or lose assuming every possible flop/turn/river in the exact same circumstances *the only variables being card distribution* there is no way to know what the EV of a hand is cause there are too many variables *however you can become good at guesstimating* examples of variables include, what you had for lunch today, how much is your opponent ahead or behind, what day of the week is it, did you take a shower or a bath today, is your opponent loose/tight/weak/aggressive *yes im being silly but thats the point* poker is 100% numbers with one slight problem, most of the numbers are hidden/distorted/unknown/unfathomable the trick to poker is becoming a great guesstimater of the unknown and parlaying that knowledge into $$$ Rule #1 of Poker Circumstances alter cases Rule #2 NEVER forget rule #1 | ||
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| Re: How to calculate EV, BoatLover88, 21. Nov 2003 11:47 | ||
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| Thank you for the explanation. Could you give me an actual example where it helped in a hand using real numbers though? I think it will help more. Thank you. | ||
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| Re: How to calculate EV, FlopDaNutz, 21. Nov 2003 11:54 | ||
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| using this definition, it doesn't :) | ||
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| Re: How to calculate EV, Mark Barnett II, 21. Nov 2003 12:18 | ||
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| ok im lousy at specifics when talking generalities but maybe this gets the idea across playing a online SnG the other day on the button with pocket 10's think like 6 players left cutoff minus 1 raises some amount i thought about it a moment, looked at stack sizes and folded (and i still couldnt tell you other than i had a feeling *and how does one get a feeling from online*) winds up BB calls and raiser has rockets and i would have taken a big stack hit most likely had i not folded. strictly speaking in that situation im not sure the basic +EV play is to fold but something/somehow i guessed right and avoided the mess. sorry but this is the best i can think of a specific hand i have played where i did something different than what i would normally do just because Rule #1 of Poker Circumstances alter cases Rule #2 NEVER forget rule #1 | ||
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| Re: How to calculate EV, Hot Allen, 21. Nov 2003 12:44 | ||
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| If by expect value you meen implied odds, I can help you a bit. Basically you are making a calculation of an odd that isn't available to you. Example: Say the flop comes A 3 5 rainbow. You have 44 and were just right of the button before the flop, no bets came to you so you put in a bet. Then, the button reraises you, the blinds fold, and you call. You know your opponant is tight so you put him on AA, AK or so on. With the above flop he is huge on you. If he has AK then then you need a 4 or a 2 (6 outs) on the turn to make a hand (never mind draws at this point). If he has AA then only a 2 can save you (4 outs). Now, you will have to check this flop and he will bet it for sure. Now, normal odds tell you to fold this hand everytime. Where implied odds comes into play is that if your opponant is very tight and say you are playing no limit, then you may figure that the pay off if you make would end be worth it. Like even with 6 outs against AK you should throw it away if calling his bet against the pot, say $10 to call against $65 in the pot, making it 6.5:1 under dog. But if you catch your 2 then (especially in no-limit) he can't put you on a 4 because of your bet pre-flop, you will enter a raising war that has you winning a lot more money then he would win with AA. Sorry if this seems random, it's hard to explain in text. Also, the EV that the others are refering to is also true. It's try to putan odd, or making adjustments to your odds based on other factors. It could be as simple as seeing the dealers base card so ruling out that specific card. Or if a loose player suddenly has his wife watching over his shoulder (he may want to not play a poor hand in front of her). I hope this helps. | ||
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| Re: How to calculate EV, Schuster, 21. Nov 2003 12:40 | ||
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| Say there's 3 bets in the pot and you have to call 1 bet with your open ended straight draw with one card to come. You're a little worse than 4 to 1 against making your straight draw, so a simple surface calculation would say you should fold because the pot is not laying you enough. But, there's a 2 flush on board, and you think you can bluff successfully 25% of the time that a 3rd flush card hits. Also, maybe you think your opponent will pay you off another bet if you hit your straight that also doesn't make a 3 flush. So by the river, there's 4 possibilities. non-flush straight card: 6 cards = 13% straight and flush card: 2 cards = 4% flush card: 7 cards = 15 % other cards: 31 = 68% So, 13% of the time you lose 1 bet to win 5. 4% of the time, you lose 1 bet to win 4 + .75*1 (Your opponent will fold 25% because of the 3 flush) 15% of the time, you lose 2 bets to win 4 68% of the time, you lose 1 bet and win nothing. Multiply everything together and add it up, (.13 * (5 - 1)) + (.04 * (4.75 - 1)) + (.15 * (4 - 2)) + (.68 * (-1)) Your total EV is +.29 bets. Obviously, it's pretty tough to figure all this while sitting at the table, but soon you'll learn to make accurate estimates. This is a simple example compared to what you're often faced with at the table... maybe you saw the guy eyeing up a steak dinner and think there's a 10% extra chance that he'll save the final bet if a flush card hits, or maybe his wife is watching and cheering him on, so there's an extra 20% chance he'll call you down so that he doesn't get bluffed off a pot while she is watching. The number of possible variables are near infinite, but a good guess is just fine most of the time. Lee | ||
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| Re: How to calculate EV, Hot Allen, 21. Nov 2003 12:46 | ||
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| I guess I was responding at the same time as Lee, we both made the wife comment, how funny. | ||
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| Re: How to calculate EV, ReMMy, 21. Nov 2003 12:46 | ||
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| Ok, you're playing 1/2 limit holdem. You're in the SB with A3h. There are 4 players limping in, you call and BB checks. Flop comes Dc8h2h. BB bets out and all 4 players call. In this position a raise by you has a positive EV. You will make your nut flush about 1 in 3 times and by adding 1 more bet 5 more will go into the pot. If you were playing against the BB and only 1 other player, your raise won't really win or lose you money in the long run, so you can choose to slow play and go for a raise on the turn or raise it right there. If you were heads up, your raise would have a negative EV since you will only make your flush 1 in 3 times and you are getting even money on your raise. Of course this does not take into account the possibility hitting an A and having it be good, or already having the best hand, whether your opponent will fold etc etc, but should give you an idea of what EV means... Good times, ReMMy | ||
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| Re: How to calculate EV, ReMMy, 21. Nov 2003 12:47 | ||
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| Sorry, I meant K, not D. Schusters post is much more mathematical, and for many that is tough to figure on the fly, but having a general idea of EV's for a situation is a good thing... | ||
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| Re: How to calculate EV, BoatLover88, 21. Nov 2003 14:44 | ||
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| Wow, thank you all so much. The mathematics isn't hard for me so I can incorporate it in my play. Thanks again. | ||
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