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Server Time: 9/6/2008 10:06:11 AM PACIFIC |
 Playing draws on the river, Williams21, 14. Nov 2003 18:53 | ||
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| Quick questions guys, Sometimes I find myself in situations where I'm heads up against a looser opponent with a straight and flush draw, and I'm playing behind the other player. The flop comes down, he checks and I bet. The the turn comes and he checks and I bet. Then the river comes he checks and I bet. Is betting the river the correct play here? This happened twice today and the other player called the river and both times won with A high. Thanks Williams | ||
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| Re: Playing draws on the river, ReMMy, 14. Nov 2003 21:18 | ||
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| It's basically a question of odds. If its a $50 pot, and the river bet is $10 then if your opponent folds 1 out of 6 times then you break even. If he folds more than that, you win money, less than that and its a losing bet. Keep in mind that he needs to fold the WINNING hand, if you would have won in showdown anyways, then you didn't really bluff successfully(this is a common misconception which causes bluffers to think they are more successful than they really are) Bottom line, the majority of river bluffs are unsuccessful, but that doesn't mean they are unprofitable... | ||
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| Re: Playing draws on the river, PairTheBoard, 14. Nov 2003 21:36 | ||
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| I think Game Theory comes into play here. If you always bet it you'll get called too much. If you never bet it you'll miss some steal value AND you won't get as many of your Value Bets paid off. I suspect an optimum frequency for making the bet - all other things being equal - might be around 25-30%. That's my best guess. | ||
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