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Server Time: 11/20/2008 1:55:24 PM PACIFIC |
 Figuring pot odds, Aisthesis, 12. Nov 2003 21:37 | ||
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| This is in part a "message to self," but I hope it will also be of some use to others (and if I'm wrong hopefully someone will enlighten me): When figuring pot odds, you should not take the break-even as the relationship of your bet to the current pot but as the relationship of your bet to the pot WITH YOUR BET ADDED. "Proof": There are $4 in the pot, and you must call $1 to stay in. You have a 25% chance of drawing a winning hand--i.e. 1 time in 4 you will win but 3 times out of four you lose. This is not a break-even situation. Playing the hand 4 representative times, these are the results: You lose 3 times at a cost of $3. You win once with a net gain of $4. So you will win $.25 on the average every time you play this hand. But if you have only a 20% chance of making your hand (1/5), you are at true break-even: Playing the hand 5 times, you lose 4 at a total cost of $4, and you win $4 one time. Anyhow, just a little subtlety that I thought was important to mention. | ||
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| Re: Figuring pot odds, Schuster, 12. Nov 2003 22:21 | ||
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| Some people use odds, not percentages, and I think that's where you're getting confused. If you have that 20% chance of winning, you're 4 to 1 against winning, and when you look at calling a $1 bet with $4 in the pot, you're break even. You don't count your bet when you use the odds method, which is why it may be more prevalent. Lee | ||
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| Re: Figuring pot odds, PairTheBoard, 12. Nov 2003 22:48 | ||
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| Listen to Lee, Aisthesis | ||
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| Re: Figuring pot odds, Aisthesis, 12. Nov 2003 22:51 | ||
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| Yeah, I just digested that one. :) | ||
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| Re: Figuring pot odds, Aisthesis, 12. Nov 2003 22:49 | ||
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| Hmmmm... interesting point. Maybe the calculation is indeed simpler if you use odds. That means on the classic flush draw case, you have ODDS of 9 (outs) to 38 (=47-9). I dunno, I think I like the percentage method in figuring up my draws (simply because I don't have to recalculate the ones "in mental storage"). But doing it that way, either you have to add your bet to the pot OR convert a 25% chance into odds of 25:75. Maybe that is better. Just going through it in my head, I'm noticing that in the 10% range even 1 percentage point is making a fairly sizeable change when you look at odds: 10% is 9:1 whereas 11% is already right at 8:1, and 12% is already closer to 7:1... Yeah, I think I do like the odds method better after all. | ||
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| Re: Figuring pot odds, coach, 13. Nov 2003 02:00 | ||
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| Good Holdem Odd's book is my brother's(I am biased I guess) http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&category=19085&item=3156069664 | ||
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