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Server Time: 11/20/2008 4:50:37 PM PACIFIC |
 Statistical anomolies, SpaceAce, 11. Nov 2003 00:45 | ||
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| One of my favorite parts of poker is the ridiculously unlikely things that happen on a regular basis. Here are a couple of examples from my own recent play: About two minutes ago, playing at PartyPoker, I was dealt JhJs in the hole. The _very_next_hand_ I received JsJh. My quick-and-dirty calculation says there's only a 1:1,758,276 chance of that happening. Had they come in the same order, I get > 1:7,000,000. Feel free to check my math, I didn't give it too much thought. Last night I was dealt AhKh, rags, AhKh, rags, AhKh. I haven't bothered with any actual numbers but I am sure that qualifies as unlikely. Playing seven-card stud a few weeks ago, I ended up with eights full, eights full, folded hand, eights full. Earlier this week, I got a straight flush 7-J on PartyPoker and the next day I got a Royal Flush. Only a few days before I had a straight flush 9-K playing a video poker machine at the Fiesta Station. These all came in the course of a couple thousand hands. I get a kick out of the improbable things that seem to happen all the time at the poker table. It's always fun to realize that the one-in-a-million shots do sometimes come along, even for me. SpaceAce | ||
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| Re: Statistical anomolies, SpaceAce, 11. Nov 2003 01:02 | ||
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| Make that "anomalies". SpaceAce | ||
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| Re: Statistical anomalies, johnph77, 11. Nov 2003 07:48 | ||
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| That's why they're called "odds". Yes, it CAN happen but it seldom ever does. But, statistically, that's better odds than being struck by lightning and, in actuality, a whole lot better odds than winning the Powerball drawing. But here's a thought. You drew JsJh twice. I wonder if you would have noticed had the cards been 8c2h or some other worthless combination - they both have the same probability of occurance..... gl | ||
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| Re: Statistical anomalies, SpaceAce, 11. Nov 2003 16:51 | ||
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| I have actually noticed similar occurences with small cards but only to the point of, say, getting a red 8 and a black 7 twice in a row. I'm not in love with big cards, those jacks just happened to be a very recent occurence. I've also had similar experiences at real tables but at a real table I can't check my hand history for confirmation. SpaceAce | ||
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| Re: Statistical anomolies, PairTheBoard, 13. Nov 2003 22:48 | ||
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| A while ago, if I remember it right, I saw KK vs KK at the showdown. The amazing thing was that I saw AA vs AA on the very next hand. Seems to me I was in one of them. Another time I saw two straight flushes in a row, one of them a Royal. I thought the Royal deserved one of my rare nh comments. | ||
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| Re: Statistical anomolies, SpaceAce, 13. Nov 2003 23:21 | ||
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| Wow, two straight flushes in a row? That's a good one. I split a pot the other day when both myself and one opponent had QQ in the hole. I just had another good one happen about 60 seconds ago. I got 10cJc in the hole and the very next hand I got 10cJc in the same order as the first time (10 first, then Jack). I know every complete poker hand is a one-in-many-millions shot but it's still fun to me when I happen to notice something peculiar. SpaceAce | ||
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| Re: Statistical anomolies, Palinya, 17. Nov 2003 12:28 | ||
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| The odds of getting exactly the same hand twice in a row is... 1/51 * 1/50 = 1/2550 so it should happen every couple thousand hands The odds of getting JJ after a JJ with a different suit is a lot better 4/48 * 3/47 = 12/2256 which is about 1/188 You don't have to take into consideration the odds of getting it in the first place if you are only looking at the odds of getting the same hand twice in a row. You will always get 2 cards 100% of the time. The only odds you need to look at is getting those 2 again. So when you get a big pocket pair (or any pair), you will get that same pair on the next hand about 0.53% of the time... which sounds about right So if you played 2000 hands and 1 out of ten hands (I didn't calculate this, just guessing) was a pocket pair, you probably had 1 occurance where the pocket pair came twice in a row. This time it was JJ. Odds of getting the same hand that isn't a pair... 8/44 * 4/47 = 32/2068 = 1/64 so this happens fairly frequently and is much more common than getting pocket pairs back to back. It just isn't as noticable when you get 4,8 twice in a row I'm not an odds expert though... did I do this right? | ||
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| Re: Statistical anomolies, SpaceAce, 18. Nov 2003 02:36 | ||
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| Yes, I see what you mean. The figures I posted did factor in the probability of it happening the first time so if you just start with any random hand and figure out the likelyhood of getting that hand again it is much, much smaller than what I posted. SpaceAce | ||
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