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Server Time: 5/16/2012 9:46:35 PM PACIFIC |
 Your Insight on this, please, The Oleo Ranch (A Cheap Spread in Texas), 10. Nov 2003 23:42 | ||
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| I, like everyone else has vented his/her frustrtation over playing solid poker in low limit hold em only to be consistently beaten up by people playing poor cards in poor positions. While reading Super Systems, Brunson claimed he once played with some friends on a fixed amount bet where he took a pair of deuces and they took AK, and played five cards on the board. He claimed he always came out ahead in the long run. It got me to thinking about the following anaylisis. I know there are probably stats out there somewhere, but here is my thinking. It is always stated that big cards will eventually win out over little cards. If you took AA and played one million hands, you shoud have a positive expectation in the long run. Same with KK, AK, etc. At some point there is a zero expectation, where after playing one million hands, you neither win or lose. (I am assuming no blinds, just raw statistics). All of the hands below that would yield a negative expectation. Now if you could create one million clones that played with exactly the same style, they should all come out equal after one million hands. So the question to this lengthy scnairo is this: In one million hands, which style of player will come out on top and which ones will loose Tight Agressive Tight Passive Loose Agressive Loose Passive It is my initial belief that if the statistics of the cards will hold up over the long run, then it is the style of play of each individual over the long run is what determines winners, and if so there has to be a consistent style of play that can counter each of the styles listed above. IE - just as in BlackJack, in order to beat the game, you must make the play that is correct in every situation every time, although there are times when the correct play is a loser. You cannot make the incorrect play consistently and beat the game. In HE, there should be a consistent style of play that can beat (or counteract) each of the others. Is it to play opposite that particular style, or play parallel to that style? Will any particular style of play LESSEN the positive expecation of the premium hands, and will any particular style of play RAISE the negative expectation of poor hands into the positive realm? Thanks for your input. The Oleo Ranch (A Cheap Spread in Texas) | ||
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| Re: Your Insight on this, please, SpaceAce, 11. Nov 2003 00:18 | ||
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| It's odd that mentioned the AK vs 22 item because I just read through that section of Super System five minutes before I came here and saw your thread. I think it's impossible to answer your question because each style of play works better or worse against other specific styles of play. That's why intuition and reading are so important; you need to decide what your opponent is doing during each hand. It might be possible to answer your question for a specific table dynamic such as "One tight agressive robot against nine loose passive robots" but I doubt there is a universal "best style" or every pro would play the exact same game. SpaceAce | ||
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| Re: Your Insight on this, please, Mark Gregorich, 11. Nov 2003 00:31 | ||
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| Interesting post. IMO, the only style which will win in the long run is tight aggressive. Tight passive may have a shot at breaking even or winning a bit against weak opposition. Loose aggressive may win for awhile, but will wind up in the minus column. Loose passive has no shot, and wil be the biggest losing style, although to the casual observer, it may appear that the loose aggressive player loses more because his swings are bigger. Playing a tight aggressive style will allow you to take advantage of loose players' poor hand selection, and passive players' failure to bet their hands properly. Passive play will have an especially damaging effect on premium hands (loose aggressive and tight aggressive should more or less play these hands the same, but the loose aggressive player will probably win more with them, as his opponents are less likely to give him credit for a hand) As for poor hands, passive play will tend to make them even worse, as now the only way for them to win is by developing into the best hand. Playing a bad hand aggressively at least gives you a shot to steal with it. Will an aggressive style turn the expectation of a poor hand from positive to negative? Well, this belief has been the downfall of many a self-infatuated poker player. There may be some cases in which this is true, but for the most part garbage stays garbage. Mark | ||
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| Re: Your Insight on this, please, shorn, 11. Nov 2003 09:33 | ||
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| I disagree with this theory. Poker is a situational game and you as the player need to adapt your style of play to the given situation or table. Generally though, tight aggressive play will get the money over the long run. However, it is the best players who have their foundation as tight/agressive and then modify it as situation dictates. There are no hard and fast rules in poker and there never will be. Steve | ||
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| Re: Your Insight on this, please, Schuster, 11. Nov 2003 10:45 | ||
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| Raw statistics vary as your opponents play varies. Just a simple example... JTs is a favorite over 22, which is a favorite over AKo, which is a favorite over JTs. Some hands have more value in different situations, and some have less. After you play for a while, you'll start to recognize when to play each hand based on it's value given the situation. Lou Krieger ran a simulation with 10 identical players playing 40 years worth of poker, and all being the exact same skill level. They didn't come out even. Playing 10/20, I believe some won or lost as much as $0.18 per hour, which isn't much, but after 40 years it added up. Then he introduced just 2 suckers, and everyone on the previous lineup (playing tight aggressive, mind you) came out on top for a fair amount, although some more than others. Tight aggressive will get the money in the long run. Lee | ||
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| Re: Your Insight on this, please, Rich P., 11. Nov 2003 15:24 | ||
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| . "So the question to this lengthy scenario is this: In one million hands, which style of player will come out on top and which ones will loose Tight aggressive Tight Passive Loose aggressive Loose Passive" You are asking the wrong question. It is common knowledge that tight-aggressive is the best approach. The question you should be asking is how do you play against each to the above types of players. Following are the general answers: Tight-aggressive: Avoid them. Don't play against them if you can. To beat them you have to very creative and tight-aggressive yourself. Tight-Passive: Play more hands but fold in the face of any aggression. Bluff more often, but if called, stop betting. Loose-aggressive: Play tight, but not as tight as in a tight aggressive game. Don't bluff. Aggressively bet and raise on your good hands. Call more often. Loose-Passive: Play more hands, especially drawing hands. Stay aggressive. Make them pay to beat you. Be wary of any sign of aggression. Well, generally, that's it. Comments appreciated. | ||
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