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Server Time: 11/23/2008 5:16:13 AM PACIFIC |
 To bet the river?, mkpoker, 9. Nov 2003 16:01 | ||
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| As part of our ongoing discussion and debate about when/when not to bet the river, I submit the following.... From 5/10 online LHE. Pretty typical table with no strong reads on the players involved in this hand. From MP, you're dealt KK. 1 limper to you. You raise. Button calls; BB calls. Flop comes QJ6 rainbow. Two checks to you. You bet. Button calls, BB folds, EP limper calls. Turn is the 8, completing the rainbow. EP limper checks. You bet. Button calls, EP folds. River comes Ac. Action to you. Q1. Do you bet? (I did). Q2. Button raises, what do you do? (I call) Button turns over AJ for two pair. As always, all comments welcome and appreciated. I'm especially interested in UPFer's thoughts on the river play. Thanks in advance. --matt | ||
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| Re: To bet the river?, Barry T, 10. Nov 2003 02:15 | ||
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| Hi. As you know, I love betting the river. I bet more than anyone. The question here is what can he have that you can beat? If we run throught he hands that might call a raise., and eliminater pairs smaller than 9s, his possible hands you muight beat are: KQ, KJ, QT, Q9s, JT, TT, 99, and remotely J9. SO now we wonder what he thinks of you. WIll he call with a KJ, QT or JT when you bet after an A comes? If he thinks you are highly aggressive and would bet, say, pocket tens (or fives) this way, he might. If he feels this way about you, then you should bet. Otherwise, if he thinks you are sane and sober, or tight and comtrolled, you should not. You cannot call the raise if you bet though. If you are going to call a raisem then you must check. He does not know you do not have AK or AQ (or AA, QQ, or JJ). His raise, IMHO, is hard to be a bluff. BarryT | ||
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| Re: To bet the river?, grant pittman, 10. Nov 2003 12:55 | ||
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| Mkpoker I don't make a habit of missing bets on the river but I would have check called in this case. The reason for this is simply because that ace helps more of your opponents possible holdings than not given how the hand played to the river. Since your opponent cold called your preflop raise and didn't reraise it is unlikely he held a big pair. Since he didn't raise you on the flop it is very unlikely he holds AQ or KQ. I would think the 8 on the turn is a safe card and again when you bet your opponent just calls. Now I would believe my opponent holds a jack or possibly K10. If he has a jack it is likely KJ or AJ and a small chance of J10. But notice how well A10 fits as a holding for your opponent. I would think that a lot of opponents may fold a lone jack on the river so I don't think there is a lot of value in betting the river ESPECIALLY if you are going to pay off a raise. You also may induce a bluff from your opponent if you check. Just my thoughts. GRANT PITTMAN | ||
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| Re: To bet the river?, mkpoker, 10. Nov 2003 13:52 | ||
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| Thank you both for the thoughtful replies. It's been enormously helpful to my game to learn from your experience and comments (on my hands and others'). A few additional factors went into my thought process here that perhaps I should have included in the original post. 1. I had been playing super-aggressively. This was the 4th consecutive hand that I had raised pre-flop and bet aggressively. Incidentally, all were legit plays (see my post "best rush ever;" This was the 3rd straight hand I had been dealt KK, which must be some kind of record). Only one of those hands went to showdown, so I figured my opponent might be more likely to call with a 2nd tier hand, like QT or JT just to see what I had been playing so maniacally. 2. I didn't anticipate the raise. Unless my opponent put me on a stone-cold bluff, the A had to scare him, too (even with his holding AJ for 2-pair). From his perspective, my possible holdings could have included AA, AQ, AJ, QQ, JJ--all of which would have beaten (or tied) his two pair. I planned to call a river bet, and I figured (wrongly) that the risk of a raise was low, so I reasoned that betting was the better option. Clearly, this strategic assumption (that he was unlikely to raise no matter what) was wrong. 3. I figured there was a very remote chance he might throw away a better hand. I didn't think this was really likely, but had he held AT (and been drawing to a gutshot) or J8s (bottom two pair), I thought maybe he'd dump it. Finally, with respect to calling his raise...I did figure I was beat (putting him on AJ wasn't too tough after he raised). But was I 90% sure? Anything's possible in LL, so I made the crying call. | ||
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