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Server Time: 11/23/2008 4:43:28 AM PACIFIC |
 Tough SNG Decision, PairTheBoard, 8. Nov 2003 14:56 | ||
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| I had what was to me a tough decision in a NL 30+3 SNG at PP last night and wonder what people's thoughts on it might be. There were 5 of us left. I had 1500 in chips, the player to my left had 500 and to his left 500 after putting in the SB. The BB had 3000 after putting in his blind. The blinds were up to 200-400. I was dealt AQo. The player to my right with the remaining 1900 chips folded and it was up to me. What do I do? When I am sitting on a short stack like the players to my left I'm always amazed and happy to see two of the larger stacks gamble and get knocked out, giving me chance to place in the money. In this case I did not want to be one of those larger stacks, gambling unneccesarily. If I pass on my AQ I will still have 900 in chips after putting in my upcoming blinds. When the next blinds hit the small stacks one or both are very likely to be knocked out and if the blinds don't go up I can even survive one more time through them. Should I pass on this AQ and play to just survive into 3rd place unless I get dealt a really great hand to go all in with? The trouble is that one of the small stacks may very well get lucky in the mean time and I may quickly find myself sitting on the smallest stack out of 4, and Forced to gamble with something much worse than the AQ I have in my hand right now. My stack is healthy enough to where it has a good shot at all three money places, especially if I can build it a little on this hand. I decided that passing on my AQo would be underestimating the value in shooting for First Place and overestimating the value of just surviving into 3rd. So I raised to 800. Maybe I should have just gone all in, but I thought under the circumstances, the raise I made was about as strong as an all-in raise anyway. I didn't like the fact I was raising the Big Stack's blind, but with my 1500 chips I was still something of a threat to the Big Stack. If he lets me double up it makes me the Big Stack and he suddenly may have survival problems himself. Unfortunately, he called with a 94o and the flop came 10,9,2 - all spades. I had the Ace of Spades. He checked. I bet 500. He called. The turn brought a 10. He checked. I took a free card. I figure he's going to call a 300 bet anyway. I miss on the river and we check it out. My remaining 300 chips don't survive my Big Blind. I'm out of the money and one of those little 500 stacks inherits at least 3rd place. I feel like an idiot. On the other hand if I had it to do over again I think I'd do the same thing. What do you think? | ||
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| Re: Tough SNG Decision, skadet, 8. Nov 2003 15:07 | ||
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| Why didnt you go balls to the wall and all-in in the first place with only 300 left? I'm a pretty new player so I'd like to hear your thoughts. | ||
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| Re: Tough SNG Decision, csi, 8. Nov 2003 16:31 | ||
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| At this point in the game You have 2 choices: 1 Fold or 2 raise all in. You only have 1500 so if your going to raise 800 push it all in on the chance you may steal right there or make the best hand and win more chips. | ||
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| Re: Tough SNG Decision, PairTheBoard, 8. Nov 2003 17:42 | ||
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| Yes, I think you're right about raising all-in to begin with. On betting the last 300 I don't think it would have done any good. Once he calls 500 on the flop I'm pretty sure he has a pair. Another 300 won't scare him off. Might as well save it and try to get lucky with it on the next hand. btw, I was just in a SNG where my last 280 triple uped and I ended heads up with 4000 all-in and a favorite to take first. So saving the last 300 is not to be sneezed at imo. But I'm looking for an answer to the really tough question. Assuming we agree on how to make the preflop raise, what should I do with the AQo in this situation. Raise or Fold? | ||
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| Re: Tough SNG Decision, Eihli, 8. Nov 2003 22:24 | ||
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| This is an easy all-in. You're minimum raise makes the pot 1400 (your 800, sb 200, bb 400). And he only had to call 400, he was getting the odds to call with any hand. pokenum -h as qc - 2h 7d Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV As Qc 1151050 67.22 553824 32.34 7430 0.43 0.674 7d 2h 553824 32.34 1151050 67.22 7430 0.43 0.326 | ||
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| Re: Tough SNG Decision, PairTheBoard, 9. Nov 2003 00:27 | ||
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| ok, I'm convinced that IF I'm going to raise I should go all in. But that's not the main issue here. The question is, should I play the hand or not? Should I maybe pass, in light of the short stacks having good chances of being knocked out before I'm forced to gamble? | ||
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| Re: Tough SNG Decision, ADAM THE EXPERT, 9. Nov 2003 06:29 | ||
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| OK, ADAM THE EXPERT, HAS DECIDED TO ANSWER YOUR QUESTION, BUT I WANT YOU TO KNOW, THAT MY ANSWER, IS THE FINAL AUTHORITY. DO NOT EVEN BOTHER, LOOKING AT OTHER'S, THEY DO NOT HAVE MY QUALIFICATIONS. YOU ASK A VERY INTELLIGENT QUESTION, SO I'M SOMEWHAT SURPRISED, THAT YOU ARE WASTING YOUR TIME, IN THE THIRTIES. CURRENTLY, ADAM THE EXPERT RATES THE FIFTY DOLLARS, AS THE BEST MONEY MAKING GAME, ON ALL THE INTERNET. A PERSON, PLAYING TWO AT A TIME, FOR FORTY HOURS A WEEK, THAT IS GOOD, BUT NOT GREAT, CAN EXPECT TO HAVE A WIN RATE, OF ABOUT ONE HUNDRED GRAND A YEAR, WITHOUT EVER LOSING MORE THAN THREE OR FOUR HUNDOID, IN A DAY. THEY REALLY PLAY THAT BADLY OK, THE CHIP STRUCTURE, HAS CHANGED IN THE FIFTIES, AND UP, TO ONE THOUSAND STARTING CHIPS, NOT THE EIGHT HUNDRED THAT IS STILL SEEN, IN THE THIRTIES, AND BELOW. THIS WAS A GOD SEND, AND GREATLY INCREASES THE SKILL LEVEL. AND, AND, IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THIS IS JUST GIVING THE LIVE ONES, CARTE BLANCHE, TO GAMBLE EVEN MORE. I MEAN, GEEEEZE, TODAY, I GOADED A GUY INTO CALLING, ALL HIS CHIPS, ON THE VERY FIRST HAND, WITH A JACK TEN OFFSUIT!!!!!!! MY GOD, DO THEY HAVE A SECRET MONEY GARDEN SOMEWHERE, WHERE THEY CAN JUST GO AND PICK MONEY OFF A TREE!!!! MUST BE. I ONLY HAD ACE KING SUITED, BUT ILL TAKE THE 1.9 TO ONE ODDS. NEXT TIME, I'LL HAVE ACES OR KINGS OR QUEENS. OK, ON TO YOUR QUESTION. YOU MADE A HORRIBLE PLAY, HORRIBLE. I DON'T WANT TO BE MEAN, BUT YOU NEED TO LEARN. IN POKER, WE DON'T CRINGE IN FEAR, OF WHAT COULD HAPPEN, WE STUDY THE ODDS, OF IT HAPPENING. FIRST OF ALL, DON'T THINK THAT THE SMALL STACKS ARE SOMEHOW "AUTOMATICALLY" GOING TO BUST OUT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY UNTRUE, WHEN THE OTHER PLAYERS ARE HOPELESS, AND LET THEM GET WALKS. WITH YOUR AQ, THE ODDS OF ANY OF THE REMAINING PLAYERS, HAVING A BETTER HAND, ARE NOT GOOD AT ALL. AND, SOME OF THOSE BETTER HANDS, SUCH AS POCKET FIVES, AND SUCH, ARE NOT GOING TO CALL, IF THE BIG STACK GUY HAS THEM,. HE IS NOT GOING TO RISK HALF HIS CHIPS, AND EVEN IF HE DOES YOU WILL ONLY BE A SIX TO FIVE UNDERDOG. YOU DON'T WIN TOURNAMENTS, BY PLAYING A CHICKEN POOP STYLE. THIS IS NOT SOME BIG EVENT, WHERE IT'S A TRADEGY TO NOT PLACE, WHEN YOU GET THAT CLOSE. ALMOST NO ONE, EXCEPT ADAM THE EXPERT, EVER BOTHERS TO FACTOR IN, HOW LONG YOU SPEND IN A TOURNAMENT. SURE, I PUT MY MONEY IN TODAY, WHEN ONLY A FAIRLY SMALL FAVORITE, BUT I'D RATHER BE OUT IN ONE MINUTE, AND GET ON TO THE NEXT GAME, THAT STICK AROUND FOR FORTY FIVE MINUTES, ONLY TO NOT PLACE, BECAUSE I DIDN'T BUILD UP CHIPS. SOMETIMES YOU THINK DEFENSE, AND SOMETIMES OFFENSE YOU NEVER, NEVER, NEVER ONLY RAISE DOUBLE THE BIG BLIND, EXCEPT WITH A MONSTER PAIR, AND YOU ARE TRYING TO TRAP. BUT EVEN THIS, IS USUALLY OBVIOUS, TO ANYONE WITH BRAINS. IN THIS CASE, YOU LET HIM CALL THE MINIMUM RAISE, AND IT COST YOU THE EVENT. SO, I WOULD HAVE MADE IT ELEVEN, AND ALLOWED YOU A CHANCE, ALBEIT SMALL, TO SURVIVE, IN THE EVENT THAT THE BIG STACK, HAD A MONSTER, AND WENT ALL IN. LET'S LOOK AT THE ODDS, OF THE BIG STACK, HAVING SOMETHING THAT BEATS YOU. ANY POCKET PAIR, SEVENTEEN TO ONE, ACE KING, WITH ONE ACE ALREADY REMOVED, ABOUT A HUNDRED TO ONE. AND LET'S SAY, THAT HE DOES NOT GO, WITH DEUCES THROUGH SIXES, WHICH IS REASONABLE THIS NOW MAKES IS AROUND TWENTY FIVE TO ONE, AGIANST HIM HAVE A PAIR, THAT HE WILL CALL WITH, ADDING THE ACE KING CHANCES, WE FIND IT AROUND 23 TO ONE, AGINST HIM HAVING A HAND TO BEAT YOU. AND, IF HE IS PAIRED WITH JACKS OR LESS, YOU STILL HAVE ALMOST AN EVEN MONEY CHANCE TO WIN. REMEMBER, ADAM THE EXPERT DOESN'T KNOW EXACT ODDS, BUT HIS ODDS, ARE ABOUT NINETY FIVE PERCENT ACCURATE. WHICH IS ALL YOU NEED. SO, FOR A LITTLE OVER A FOUR PERCENT CHANCE, THAT THE BIG STACK HAS YOU BEAT, YOU WANNA DUMP THAT ACE QUEEN!!!!!! IF YOU DO THIS AGAIN, I'D SUGGEST FINDING SOMETHING ELSE TO DO. AND AGAIN, THIS IS NOT AN INSULT, I JUST WANT YOU TO EITHER SUCCEED, OR QUIT. THEIR IS NO SENSE IN PLAYING POKER, IF YOU ARE NOT A WINNER. ADAM MAY BE REACHED AT ADAMTHEEXPERT@HOTMAIL.COM | ||
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| Re: Tough SNG Decision, PairTheBoard, 9. Nov 2003 14:05 | ||
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| Thanks very much ADAM. That is EXACTLY the answer I was looking for and I'm convinced you are SPOT ON CORRECT. Also, I think I'll try some of those $50 SNG's. | ||
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