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Server Time: 9/6/2008 4:07:58 PM PACIFIC |
 What would you do? (part 1), Palinya, 7. Nov 2003 15:48 | ||
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| I have been looking at some hands that I won and lost money on and I am going to post a few of them here for opinions and then post the outcome later (I may or may not have won this hand) I am just going by my hand histories and some of these may be old so I don't really have any information on table texture so just assume you just got there and don't have a read on anyone yet. I was one behind the button and I was dealt KdKc. Betting gets to me and there are 3 early/mid position callers. I raise. Button and blinds fold. Flop is Jh, 7h, 5c. It's checked to me. I bet and get 2 callers (one folded). Turn comes up a 6c. It's checked to me. I bet and EP folds while the MP check-raises. What should I do here? Call the bet and check/call river hoping the 6 didn't make the straight or trips? Do I put him on the straight and fold? Do I bet into him to see if he really means it? | ||
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| Re: What would you do? (part 1), iceman5, 7. Nov 2003 16:02 | ||
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| I would say he either has a str8, or more likely flopped a set. Either way you are in trouble. If he had checked raised the flop I would say he might have AJ, but from my experience a check raise on the turn means you are beaten. Lets see if the experts agree with little ol' me. | ||
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| Re: What would you do? (part 1), mkpoker, 7. Nov 2003 16:22 | ||
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| At the risk of sounding reckless, I'd re-raise. If he flopped a set, I doubt he'd have checked the flop because of the threatening heart draw. It's extremely unlikely the the turn 6 gave him a set, because he probably would have folded 66 on the flop, when he didn't improve. By reraising, you'd be gambling that he holds virtually anthing except 89. I'd say it's possible that he has some kind of a flush-straight superdraw and is on a semi-bluff. He could think you have AK or AQ and he's trying get you to throw your hand away. As with all things poker, you play should be totally dependent on your read of the player. If he's tricky (and this is more likely at mid-limit), I'd put him on a semi-bluff. If he's a rock who doesn't bluff, then obviously, you should get out now. | ||
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| Re: What would you do? (part 1), Palinya, 7. Nov 2003 16:44 | ||
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| This is a $0.50/1.00 game... which is fairly obvious once he shows what he is holding 5s 6s for 2 pair. He was calling my bets with bottom pair and 3 to a straight. (flop was Jh, 7h, 5c) Turn was 6c... river was 9c. I called his river check raise and he checked to me after 9 flopped on the river. I checked here since I had no idea what he had and all he needed was an 8 for the straight... and he could have been going for another check raise. If I had a read on him and I saw him playing suited connectors already, should I still have raised him or should I have thrown this away after the flop and the check / raise came? He called the flop on bottom pair of 5's (and 3 to a straight) so I think it is fairly likely that he would have called with an inside straight draw or pocket 6's too. All of which would have killed me on the turn. I'm just not sure how to deal with people that stay in with sloppy cards and hit their 2 pair on the turn or river. I'm thinking that the check / raise should have been taken as a sign that he hit his slop. I'd hate to raise him to only have him call me or re-reraise at this point. Does the read that he holds onto crap change anything? | ||
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| Re: What would you do? (part 1), mkpoker, 7. Nov 2003 17:15 | ||
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| Had you followed my brilliant advice...you definitely would have lost another BB. But (as I always say when my advice is proven wrong), you can't let results dictate whether you made the correct play. To me, the most important thing to note about your opponents play wasn't that he played low suited connectors, but that he played them out-of-position. Had he demonstrated a tendency to do that, you might have been clued-in to 2-pair possibilities (but it's a longshot). But in response to your final question, you shouldn't have folded the turn. Remember, you had 8 good outs (any King, J or 7)--that's better than 5:1 to improve and definitely more than the pot was laying. | ||
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| Re: What would you do? (part 1), iceman5, 7. Nov 2003 17:39 | ||
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| on 7. Nov 2003 17:15 mkpoker wrote: > Had you followed my brilliant advice...you definitely would have lost another BB. But (as I > always say when my advice is proven wrong), you can't let results dictate whether you made the > correct play. > > To me, the most important thing to note about your opponents play wasn't that he played low > suited connectors, but that he played them out-of-position. Had he demonstrated a tendency to > do that, you might have been clued-in to 2-pair possibilities (but it's a longshot). > > But in response to your final question, you shouldn't have folded the turn. Remember, you had > 8 good outs (any King, J or 7)--that's better than 5:1 to improve and definitely more than the > pot was laying. I have to disagree with this. With a board of J75 and then a check raise after the 6 falls. He either hit 2 pair ,a str8, or already had a set. Also, not knowing what the opponent has, how can you call the J's and 7's outs? If he has a str8 you have no outs, if he has a set and a J or 7 falls, he has a boat. The only way the J's and 7's are out are if he hit the 2 pair, but there is no way I would use them to figure pot odds. | ||
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| Re: What would you do? (part 1), ReMMy, 7. Nov 2003 18:41 | ||
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| I believe the term is "Drawing dead" =) You may have X outs to improve, but just cause you improve doesn't mean you win. | ||
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| Re: What would you do? (part 1), mkpoker, 7. Nov 2003 18:47 | ||
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| Of course you're right. Palinya's question (or at least my understanding of her question) was "if I knew he had bottom two pair, should I have folded?" And of course, the answer to THAT question is no, because you have 8 good outs. In the course of play, however, there's no way you could reasonably figure that a 7 or a J falling would give you a winner. | ||
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| Re: What would you do? (part 1), Schuster, 8. Nov 2003 00:20 | ||
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| You have 8 outs if he has 2 pair, regardless of what they are. The trouble comes from the fact that when you hit 6 of them, you don't know if they are the ones you wanted to hit, so there's a lot of finesse in it. Lee | ||
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| Re: What would you do? (part 1), Aisthesis, 8. Nov 2003 02:20 | ||
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| Interesting hand... Judging just from this hand alone, it looks to me like one can perhaps say a few things about your opponent: 1) as observed, he likes suited connectors; 2) he probably calls too often; 3) he's not entirely incompetent, as the check-raise was a pretty clever move. Only one pocket pair would explain his action, namely the sixes for the set. Possible preferences of the player might make this explanation less likely, but it is one scenario, in which case you have 2 outs (kings). Two different suited connectors are possible for him to get the straight, of which the 43 would look awfully bad in MP. Also, he's drawing to the inside straight after the flop with only 4 outs. So the straight looks to me only barely more likely than the set. Two different suited connectors would explain the two pair (76 and 65) scenario. So, I'd put it at close to 60% that he has the two pair (completely excluding the possibility that he's just trying to buy you out of your hand by pretending to have the straight), 40% that he has set or straight. And surely we can deduct from all that a 10% bluff factor, possibly more. If he has two pair, I count 8 actual outs for your hand (2 kings, then 3 each for each of the cards he doesn't have--although Schuster did point out the perils involved in some of these outs) out of 46 cards left in the deck, so around 1/6. The pot should now be somewhere around 8.5 BB when you see the flop, 10.5 after the flop, and 12.5 coming to you on the turn checkraise, if I'm adding all this correctly. Without going through the details of the somewhat complex probability calculation for winning given the various possible hands here, the result would surely make it worthwhile to at least go ahead and see the river I would think. Basically, it would seem to me most likely that you're facing two pair (in which case the draw is definitely worth it), less likely that you're completely (straight) or effectively (set) beat, and with an outside chance that you're ahead (the opponent might think your flop bet was just an attempt at buying the pot with high cards that didn't hit). | ||
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| Re: What would you do? (part 1), Piers Majestyk, 9. Nov 2003 01:46 | ||
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| the guy also didn't make a bad call on the flop. When you bet there was 10.5 bets in the pot and he has in all likelihood his full complement of 5 outs for 2 pair or trips which is laying him 8.4:1. I agree that he shouldn't have been in there in the first place but once he saw the flop he was definately right to see the turn, his only mistake was checking the river after that. | ||
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| Re: What would you do? (part 1), Palinya, 9. Nov 2003 09:55 | ||
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| Thanks Everyone! | ||
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