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Server Time: 9/6/2008 9:50:58 AM PACIFIC |
 3 players left discussion, tommyhawk, 3. Nov 2003 11:45 | ||
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| Hi all, Would like your input on a situation that I was in and my brother ( watching from USA ) disagreed and we had a long discussion. $30 stng on party SB 250 ( 6590 chips ) BB 500 ( 360 all- in) me 1050 Got dealt J10 h..... I fold because I think I get a free change to watch player get killed and I move up. If I had an A or K something I would have raised all-in. Brother says I had to call and if chipleader showed big action I still could have folded. I just thought j10 was not big enough to make that move here. I only would have gained 360 and that is not enough to go scare chipleader ( oops forgot the 250 sb ). But then again I am on BB next round and that is half my stack. I think in the long run ( that's what it is all about ) it is more profitable to watch but I may be wrong here I would love some input on this one we all encounter. P.s ofcourse i would have made a str. Small stack doubles up and i am out next hand on small pockets. tommyhawk. Keep on learning ;} | ||
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| Re: 3 players left discussion, Aisthesis, 3. Nov 2003 12:34 | ||
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| Hmmmm... close call there I would think. In my opinion it's either all-in or fold at that point. Basically, BB has a purely random hand, and I'm not really excited about J as high card if no one gets a match at all (I'd feel better actually trying it with A2o for that reason). If you pair up (odds at almost 50%), then again you're probably good. Sometimes the money breakdown can help in making decisions like that: If there's a bigger gap between any of the top 3 places, then shooting for the place with the biggest return is in my opinion best. The all-in certainly give you the best chance at first place, although it will be very difficult to pull it off. But if the gap between 2nd and 3rd is less than the gap between 1st and 2nd, I'd probably go for the all-in. Shooting exclusively for 2nd place is more complicated... Depends a little on what SB is likely to do with merely average holdings. If you think he'll fold unless he has a hand, I'd say go with the all-in because I think your odds are better than 50-50 of beating BB (if you pair, you're probably good, and if neither of you pair, you're probably around 50-50 of winning, so probably better than 60% for you anyway). If you think he'll call you regardless, I think probably fold if you're shooting for second because I think your odds of beating 2 random hands with JT are less than 50-50. Probability of 4 random cards that one is Q or better? On each card, there are 12 cards fitting the bill and 50 cards left in the deck, so I get an almost 70% chance that there's at least one Q in the pocket of SB or BB. Just one Q doesn't necessarily kill your hand, so I don't know, there, it's probably a close call. Assuming SB will definitely call if you fold, your odds of getting 2nd are definitely 50-50 by folding. But if he folds, your odds of getting second have gone way down. Calculating all this on the spot would be completely impossible for me anyway. Basically, you're somewhat desperate in light of your upcoming BB situation. So with fairly strong holdings, I'd say go with the all-in. Oh, actually, I just thought of one thing that clinches it: If both you and BB lose, you get second place as better chipholder prior to going out. So, by going all-in, BB now has a 2/3 chance of going out rather than just 1/2 if you are out of play. So the short answer is definitely to go all-in since really all you're worried about is knocking BB out right here. | ||
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| Re: 3 players left discussion, Aisthesis, 3. Nov 2003 12:50 | ||
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| P.S. to my previous post: If my overly long analysis with simple conclusion is correct, that would mean that in this case the all-in would probably be a good idea REGARDLESS of your holdings--perhaps just a limp with a truly horrible hand because then you'll at least be able to play one more hand. But I think you have to do everything possible to put the weak opponent out of his misery right then. | ||
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| Re: 3 players left discussion, Aisthesis, 3. Nov 2003 13:06 | ||
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| P.P.S.: By the same argument, there's also a reason not to go all in on you good hand: You want SB in the hand even if he wins it. So, if there's a reasonable chance SB won't call your all-in, then you should limp and certainly not attempt a pot-buy in subsequent play. | ||
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| Re: 3 players left discussion, Bart Mann, 3. Nov 2003 13:30 | ||
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| I play a lot of SNG tournaments (probably 30+ per week) and I have absolutely no problem with your move here. If there are three of us left at the table and I’m in middle chip position with an extremely small stack at the table, I get the heck out of the way EVERY SINGLE TIME these two want to do battle, with three exceptions—AA, KK and AK. If the short stack is to my left, I fold the small blind whenever the chip leader enters the pot. If the short stack is to my right, I fold the small blind when the short stack enters the pot and stay out of the pot completely when I’m not on a blind. I do this for two reasons: 1) Mathematically, the short stack will not win 100% of the time head-to-head against the chip leader. If you put a snake and a mouse in the same sack, eventually the snake is going to get his meal. 2) I don’t want to give the short stack ANY of my chips to help him fight his battle. If he doubles through someone, it’s going to be the chip leader and NOT me. We’ve all seen guys down to their last T250 that end up mounting an amazing comeback and handing us our lunches on a silver platter. Don’t encourage this behavior. Now if the extremely short stack does eventually find his legs and catch up to me, I loosen up and start playing normally again. But you have to keep in mind (and I can tell by your play that you already know this) that you get no points for ego here. Who takes the short stack out is not important—as long as he’s taken out. Let the chip leader do the dirty work, then crush whoever is left over. | ||
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| Re: 3 players left discussion, Aisthesis, 3. Nov 2003 15:53 | ||
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| I would agree completely if the pressure weren't quite so great in light of holdings and blinds. Here, the BB is going to make tommyhawk short stack on the next hand, if the current short stack wins this one. With only 2 BB's left and one of them on the next hand, I think it's time to force the decision, since your chances of locking up second place right here are better than 2/3 whereas they drop way down on the 50-50 chance that the short stack wins this hand. Perhaps I should, however, retract my suggestion of limping even with nothing because folding probably does yield roughly a 75% (50% on current hand, then 50% subsequently) chance at second place. With JT I think the chances at second are better than 75% with a call. | ||
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| Re: 3 players left discussion, KJo, 3. Nov 2003 16:03 | ||
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| Think of it another way- if you go all in, perhaps the chip leader doesn't call for the same reasons that you wouldn't call- you can knock out the BB instead of him, and he doesn't have to take the risk of doubling you both up. With JTs, I might make the move here and hope the chip leader doesn't wake up with a big hand that he has to call, since I'd be very comfortable going up against the short stack heads up (since you can either knock him out or lose 1/3 of your stack, the risks are worth it). Eli on 3. Nov 2003 11:45 tommyhawk wrote: > > Hi all, > > Would like your input on a situation that I was in and my brother ( watching > from USA ) disagreed and we had a long discussion. > > $30 stng on party > > SB 250 ( 6590 chips ) > BB 500 ( 360 all- in) > me 1050 > > Got dealt J10 h..... I fold because I think I get a free change to watch player > get killed and I move up. > If I had an A or K something I would have raised all-in. > > Brother says I had to call and if chipleader showed big action I still could > have folded. > I just thought j10 was not big enough to make that move here. I only would have > gained 360 and that is not enough to go scare chipleader ( oops forgot the 250 > sb ). But then again I am on BB next round and that is half my stack. > > I think in the long run ( that's what it is all about ) it is more profitable > to watch but I may be wrong here I would love some input on this one we all > encounter. > > P.s ofcourse i would have made a str. Small stack doubles up and i am out next > hand on small pockets. > > tommyhawk. > > Keep on learning ;} | ||
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| Re: 3 players left discussion, Schuster, 3. Nov 2003 19:07 | ||
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| Hey tommy, with your stack this low and the BB even lower, your primary goal, in my opinion, should be maximizing your chances to get second place. You only really have 3 options - call, raise, or fold (I'm assuming if you raised, you wouldn't leave yourself with 50 chips as the SB would not let you keep them if you were going to lose the pot). As it stands right now, the small blind would have to be a fool to fold if he had to only call 250 more. I'm going to assume he wouldn't do so. The next point is that if you were to just call, the SB would have to assume you would call if he raised you all in, and since it benefits him to have the BB out, he should not make this play unless his hand plays extremely well against 3 players, and those are few and far between. Combine the fact that you won't be stupid enough to bluff the dry sidepot, he's much better off calling and seeing the flop before he commits more chips to the pot. Next, if you went all in, the only hands the SB is likely to fold are the hands that are near terrible. He is getting about 2 to 1 to call and eliminate both opponents, one of whom has a random hand. If he has something like Q8, K4, A3... he's going to play. These are the hands you don't want all your money in with before the flop, as he is the favorite. If you don't raise all in, he will call with complete rags... 84o, 73o, etc. These are what you want to play against him. Basically, it all boils down to the fact that raising all in cannot be correct. First and most important, you want the BB out, and having the SB play is advantageous. Second, the SB will only fold if he has a truly terrible hand, but he will play if he has something marginal, which many times would be a slight favorite over you, or even have you totally dominated. So you're left with either folding or calling. If you fold, the BB has about a 25% chance of surviving between this hand and the next. He'll pretty much have to take the coinflip against you and you'll have to call. It goes on from there, but a 25% estimate is good enough. If you call, you'll win 42% of the time. 29%, the BB will win and stay around, and he'll probably have enough chips to outlast you. So it's a clear fold, right? I don't think so. The 42% of the time that you win, you'll have 1860 chips, if not 2960. If you fold, you're down half your chips on the next hand for your blind, and you'll have very little chance of getting first. The extra chances of winning the pot and having a shot at getting first outweigh the extra 4% chance of the BB outlasting you. This is not totally mathematically ironclad, but as far as estimations go, it's pretty good. Also it should be noted that if the SB bets the flop, you should likely call no matter what the flop is. If it contains 2 overcards, you have a gutshot which is only 5 to 1 against hitting, and you will be getting about 5 to 1 on your money. Combine that with the chances that he might be betting bottom pair to try to chase out your overcards that might beat him, it's a pretty good call. If it only has one overcard, the chance of him betting middle or bottom pair is enough to call the flop bet. Yes, you are gambling, but you are extremely short stacked, and are getting barely the best of it. If you fold, you're all in on your next hand, and it's a coinflip where you don't really have the best of it. Lee | ||
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| Re: 3 players left discussion, palman, 4. Nov 2003 19:37 | ||
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| I'd tend to disagree with the call. If you limp in..... with the blinds the way they are..... there's a chance the chipleader folds. In this situation if you lose all the sudden you are the shortstack. So you've got a 50% chance of winning and same of losing, since the big blind essentially triples up instead of doubles up. If you fold the chipleader is a guaranteed call. If you limp and the chipleader calls, you cannot play it too passively, for he would bully you around (with his chipstack the pot is more important than knocking out a player, and if you push all in the chipleader will make a call with virtually any piece of the flop. So I would fold and take the 50% chance right there that you hop into second. Now if you pushed all in, you'd have a better chance of winning, and you wouldn't risk as much, plus would have a better chance of winning once it got to heads up. So the choice is all in or fold, I'd say limping is the worst choice. | ||
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