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Server Time: 2/13/2012 3:04:50 PM PACIFIC |
 Hand analysis, Aisthesis, 3. Nov 2003 11:36 | ||
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| This is a (bad) tournament hand from an 18-player SNG (top 4 are in the money) I played yesterday, and I wondered about opinions on where I went wrong. I had gotten off to a bad start, then worked my way up to top chipholder briefly, taking some high risks to get there, but then decided it was time to play it safe. By this hand, we were down to the final five, all by my standards good, aggressive players. My "play it safe" strategy had slowly but surely eased my bankroll down and allowed others to take the lead. So, now in 4th place moneywise, with the low chipholder showing a lot of tenacity, I was starting to get pretty worried about getting into the winners' circle at all. Blinds are at 100/200, ante of 25. Standings: Seat 1: Aisthesis (4865 in chips) Seat 3: The steam (2265 in chips) Seat 4: aware (8930 in chips) Seat 7: maq2000 (5965 in chips) Seat 8: AceMagnet (4975 in chips) With K9o, I limp from the button. BB (chip-leader) checks, all others fold. Flop shows Qc 9c 9d, obviously very pleasing to my eye. With 500 in the pot, my opponent checks to me, and I bet out pot (the betting has been sufficiently aggressive that I figure he'll call, which he does). Now comes the bad part: Turn is Jh, so now I'm looking at both the club flush draw AND a good straight draw if the 10 is there, possibly even made straight. Opponent checks again, and I bet 1000. This was probably my first mistake: showing too much indecision by not betting the full pot of 1500. But at this point, while I really wanted this pot, I also didn't want to put myself in 5th place and hence fall back into the position of having to play high-risk (having extricated myself from this situation already a couple of times in the tournament). Now my opponent smells blood and throws back at me an all-in raise. So I just fold my set. That left me with around 3000 in chips to work with, still better than the guy with 2200 but now very vulnerable. The checkraise looked to me just too much like the made straight. But he may have had nothing at all (having a good read on my precarious situation) or may have just had the flush or straight draw (JT would make a lot of sense if he was indeed betting his cards). Anyhow, I figured throwing in the towel would give me a reasonable shot at 4th still whereas losing would knock me out altogether. Winning would of course set me up as high chipholder, enough for an almost certain 3rd place and probable 1st or 2nd. What would others have done here? In hindsight, my inclination is to say: 1) On the turn either bet the full pot of 1500 or just check it to play the hand safe. 2) If the 1500 elicits an all-in, just go ahead and call it. And if the turn check elicits an all-in on a river with no help for my hand, fold the river with less damaging losses P.S.: In point of fact, I was unable to defend my vulnerable 4th place holdings after that and got knocked out one place short of the moneywinners' circle (I HATE that!!) | ||
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| Re: Hand analysis, Aisthesis, 3. Nov 2003 16:41 | ||
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| just renewing this thread in the hope I can catch the eye of one of the good players here. Sorry I'm so long-winded... :( | ||
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| Re: Hand analysis, Schuster, 3. Nov 2003 17:23 | ||
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| Hi, the first thing I don't like is open limping from the button. Either raise or fold, unless you know something about the blind players that you didn't mention. Second, in your analysis, you said that if you had bet the full pot and he moved in, you would call, but since you bet less and he moved in, you folded. This doesn't make sense. By your logic, if you bet 1000 and your opponent moves in, he has you beat, but if you bet more (suggesting more strength) and he moves in, you have the better hand? Third, a lot of players don't play trips strong on the flop, and so when someone does play strongly on the flop, a lot of players try to represent the trips and steal the pot. I would have called the bet, and I think it's a pretty easy call. There are not many hands that can beat you at this point, and a made straight would be the last one in my mind. QJ sounds like a good possibility, or QT, or maybe just a club draw with a ten. I think you have way too much hand to fold in this heads up pot. Lee | ||
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| Re: Hand analysis, Aisthesis, 3. Nov 2003 18:49 | ||
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| Hey, thanks very much for the comments. Most of the strange play of the hand results from my attempted jockeying for placement in the tourney (going into the hand I am moderately safe in my 4th place position). Further comments below on 3. Nov 2003 17:23 Schuster wrote: > Hi, the first thing I don't like is open limping from the button. Either raise or > fold, unless you know something about the blind players that you didn't mention. Blind players fairly timid at this stage and big stack playing pretty loose aggressive but very much under control. Since I didn't feel like my K9 was strong enough for a raise, particularly with my precarious position in the tourney, maybe I should indeed have just folded and tried to wait for something better to make a move on. > > Second, in your analysis, you said that if you had bet the full pot and he moved in, > you would call, but since you bet less and he moved in, you folded. This doesn't > make sense. By your logic, if you bet 1000 and your opponent moves in, he has you > beat, but if you bet more (suggesting more strength) and he moves in, you have the > better hand? Here, you're absolutely right under "normal" conditions. In all honesty, I really consider it unlikely that he has me beat but pretty likely that he has some good draws that can beat me--regardless of my bet. The reasoning here was simply that with 1000 in, I can still take my chances of getting into the money if I fold, but with 1500, I felt like I was fully committed (perhaps commitment isn't so bad) and really would have to take my chances by going all the way. > > Third, a lot of players don't play trips strong on the flop, and so when someone > does play strongly on the flop, a lot of players try to represent the trips and steal > the pot. I would have called the bet, and I think it's a pretty easy call. There > are not many hands that can beat you at this point, and a made straight would be the > last one in my mind. QJ sounds like a good possibility, or QT, or maybe just a club > draw with a ten. I think you have way too much hand to fold in this heads up pot. > Yes, agreed. I think that was the big mistake. I even had 12 outs for a boat plus 1 for quads. So if he was drawing, my drawing chances had to be better. Folding here was really stupid the more I think about it. Thanks again for wading through my long description! > Lee | ||
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| Re: Hand analysis, iceman5, 4. Nov 2003 13:48 | ||
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| Not to be too technical, but if there are 2 9's on the flop and you have a 9...you have trip 9's ..not a set of 9's. A set is much better because its hidden. | ||
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| Re: Hand analysis, Aisthesis, 4. Nov 2003 16:10 | ||
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| Hey, thanks for the correction. I didn't know that. Also noticed that my calculation of outs was off in my commentary to Schuster: Only 9 outs for the boat plus one for the quad, but that still makes it more attractive than a flush draw. Actually, I'm quite glad you re-opened commentary on this embarassing hand for me... more in a separate post. | ||
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| Re: Hand analysis, Aisthesis, 4. Nov 2003 16:24 | ||
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| Thinking about my embarassingly poor play here, I've drawn the conclusion that the real problem was simply indecision. I hit a really good hand but play it completely irrationally because I was constantly torn because my desire to play it safe keeps clouding my mind as to the way the hand has to be played. So, the main moral of the story: While chipstandings, etc. in a tournament should legitimately effect one's willingness to take risks, once you see the flop, you have to either play the hand or fold it right there. | ||
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