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Hand analysis, Mark, 2. Nov 2003 12:46
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Hi all,

This hand just came up a few minutes ago (at the end of my session) and i'm still thinking about my turn play. Let me know what you think of my play, and the hand in general.

$10-20 online
Not my usuall game, but i have played it a few times. The table is 7 or 8 handed. A wide range of players, loose, tight, passive, aggressive, but all seem to hang on too long in most pots. The loose passive players will call with complete garbage on the flop (draws to under cards, etc) while the aggressive players will make a play for most pots they're in.

My stack was going for quite a ride with alot of huge pots.

THE HAND

I get AQo utg and raise. One LP caller and the BB 3-bets. We both call. The BB was a solid player who had to have a big hand to make the re-raise (AA, KK, QQ, maybe JJ, AK, AQs) I'm not sure if he'd re-raise anything else but I think it most likely he has AA, KK or AK.

THE FLOP - 3c, 8d, Qh.

top pair top kicker

BB leads and i raise. LP folds. BB calls. I don't think he'd fold anything here agaisnt my raise, but i'm not sure what he'd do with AA or KK. He knows stradegy and is able to read the table, so he may just call with an overpair and go for a check raise on the Turn.

THE TURN 3c, 8d, Qh - 7d

BB checks. either he has a check-raising hand or i have him beat. If i have him beat, he has AK, AQ, JJ or maybe AJs. His only possible check-calling hand is AK. If he's slowplaying, its AA or KK. If he had a hand i can beat, its probably only a 40% chance he'd call a turn bet with it.

If i'm in the lead, only a K or J are scare cards, while if i'm beat, my only out is a Q.

I decide to check ( with the intention of calling the R) since, there are only 7 possible bad cards for me(he has to have at least 1 of the 8 kings and Jacks for them to be scare cards), if i''m beat i lose less, and if i'm ahead he may bluff the River.

THE RIVER 3c, 8d, Qh, 7d, - Qd

my perfect card and the BB bets!. I raise he calls and i win. I didn't get to see what he had.


Was i right to check the turn? I gave him a free card, but it can't be that bad. Also, if an ace hit the river, he would bet an AK or AJ hand, gaining me an extra bet. I would have call any river bet after checking the turn, losing less when i lose and gaining more when he bluffs.

Thanks all

Mark




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Re: Hand analysis, Aisthesis, 2. Nov 2003 15:49
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No comment from me on the turn, as I can see both sides of it. But at least on pokerstars (can't say for sure about other sites) requesting a hand history should tell you what the mucked cards were. I'd frankly be curious to know in light of your description.
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Re: Hand analysis, Mark Gregorich, 2. Nov 2003 22:56
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I like your play because, as you say, very few free cards can come which pose a threat to your hand. Also, you may get paid off by a worse hand on the river, which would have folded had you bet the turn. Plus it gives you a free shot at a queen or ace, if he has KK or AA, which seems fairly likely. If he is a solid player, as you seem to think he is, its difficult for you to win both a turn and a river bet from him, so this makes your turn play good. Had he been a weak or wild player, I would definitely bet the turn.
Mark G
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