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Server Time: 11/23/2008 4:49:50 AM PACIFIC |
 Profitable play?, iceman5, 1. Nov 2003 13:08 | ||
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| I have been very successful with this play lately and Im wondering if its actually long term profitable. Lets say Im in the blind and there are 2 limpers. The flop comes with all rags..lets say 9 5 3 rainbow. I bet out with the hopes that the limpers have overcards, draws that they didnt connect with, or small PP (A8s or 66). Alot of times both limpers fold. Im assuming because since Im in the blind they think I connected with one or both of my rags (I may even have only overcards or have rags but have missed also). Is this a profitable play? And if so, if one of the limpers calls is it ok to fire one more time if the turn is another blank? | ||
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| Re: Profitable play?, Angel, 1. Nov 2003 14:02 | ||
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| The profitability of this play is dependant upon the texture of the game that you are in. That said, Brier and Ciaffone have included this positive strategy in their book Middle Limit Holdem. I would add that, imo, better than coming up with this idea independantly, is noticing that despite it's profitablity to date for you - it may not be profitable long term. That willingness to question your own positive results will do some serious damage to the longetivity of the usual learning curve. | ||
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| Re: Profitable play?, 4 POKER, 1. Nov 2003 14:14 | ||
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| Hi iceman, If you know your opponents well, and what their standards and tendencies are, "table texture" - (and this may be easier if you were playing live poker) - then yes, I think you can fire out a bet from the BB in situations where you have only a couple of limpers in there. Should you always lead out with nothing?......of course not. If you do however, and get called (say by only one opponent) - firing out on the turn may depend on "if" you think your opponent caught a card that would help him and if you think putting in another bet would cause him to fold. "You" don't necessarly have to have anything - BUT, it's a decision that only you (at that present time) can come to. I make that play myself, but not against a known calling station who may be disregarding pot odds, or who will simply not lay down even bottom pair, etc. All that said.....It's about reading and timing - and it's a play that you will make (at times), *when you are extremely focused on the entire game*; as some of those opportunities may slip by a player who is not thinking about all the ways in which to earn from. Now of course the play becomes profitable only sometimes, but it doesn't mean that it should be discounted all -together, and, to use it only when you're confident about your entire game and your decision making. 4P- | ||
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| Re: Profitable play?, Phish, 3. Nov 2003 20:39 | ||
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| It's clear you're playing with weak tight players. Good players don't usually limp into pots all that often, especially not in a game where there are usually only two players plus blinds to see the flop. And against weak tight players, bluffing is a great profit maker. Since this strategy seems to be working, continue until these guys wise up. Remember, given that there's 3.5 bets in the pot (2 limps, BB, dead SB), you bluff needs to only work about 25% of the time to be profitable. So even if the strategy appears to be failing and you get called or raised 75% of the time, it is still profitable. Most players don't seem to realize that your plays for the pot can look idiotic 75% or 80% or 90% of the time, but it is still profitable. I strongly believe that this is one of the factors that separate experts from mediocre players. Mediocre players worry too much about saving a bet here or there ('should I have called with my two pair on the river?') while experts understand they can be wrong with their calls or bluffs a great majority of the time and it's still the right thing to do. When you say that these plays have been successful for you, I get the impression that they're working about 60% of the time or more. If that's the case, then why would you even question their long term profitability. Plus, by taking the initiative, even if you get called, you avoid getting bet out of the pot yourself. This way you get to see the turn card and maybe the river and may draw out . Or your Q high may actually be better than the caller's T8 busted straight draw. | ||
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