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Server Time: 2/13/2012 2:59:20 PM PACIFIC |
 Thinking about pot odds, blisterfoot, 30. Oct 2003 19:38 | ||
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| Just posted this in the Getting Started group, before I saw this would be the better place. I THINK I understand using pot odds to decide whether to call a bet on the Turn--e.g. if you're drawing to an OE straight, you've got 8 outs, so you should call as long as the pot is offering you odds of at least 5.75 to 1 (46/8). right? But how should I be thinking about pot odds on the Flop? With two cards still to come, the odds of making my straight are about 3.2 to 1 (if I've got my math right). So on one hand I might be inclined to call a bet if the pot was laying me at least 3.2 to 1... BUT on the other hand, that 3.2 to 1 ratio is kind of misleading, because it implies that I get two chances to make my straight for just one bet, which isn't true--if the Turn card doesn't help me, I'm going to have to call another bet on the Turn if I want to see that second card. So does that mean that on the Flop I should only be thinking of pot odds in terms of the next card (47/8), and forget about factoring in that I'll really have two chances of making my hand? That doesn't quite seem right either.... How should I be thinking about this? And by the way, before everyone jumps all over me, yes I do realize that I shouldn't be using pot odds alone to decide whether to play my draws or not. It also depends on what I put my opponents on, whether I could bluff at it or not, and...uhhh...well, what else? | ||
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| Re: Thinking about pot odds, Formless, 31. Oct 2003 21:11 | ||
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| Your math may be a bit off in calculating a straight draw on the flop, check it again. Try using pot odds as a factor in deciding how to proceed, not as a hard and fast rule. Not all four card straight draws are equal some are gold and some are garbage. | ||
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| Re: Thinking about pot odds, Aisthesis, 12. Nov 2003 22:00 | ||
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| That's a question I've been wondering about, too, and I think the answer depends a lot on your opponent. If your opponent is definitely going to make you pay big for each card, I think you have to figure it card by card--i.e., with my 1/6 chance of making it am I getting better than 1/6 pot odds each time? If your opponent may be inclined to back off in betting the turn, then you can start looking at the more optimistic figure of not quite 1/3. Then there's the implied odds aspect: You should normally be able to get more than just the pot out of your opponent if you make it by the river, but just how much is going to depend a lot on the opponent. In practice, with an opponent who's going to keep asserting a good pair on both flop and turn, my "rule of thumb" is basically that pot odds of 4:1 (i.e., you have to call 1/3 or less of current pot to stay in) is usually about the break-even point. If you "know" your straight or flush will win and there are 2 or players other than yourself in the hand, I think you can pretty much always call. (but in practice it's rarely quite this pure with all the "drawing dead" questions, etc., so this is really only a very rough guideline "under laboratory conditions"). | ||
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