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Server Time: 7/30/2010 5:37:57 PM PACIFIC |
 This site rocks!, iceman5, 30. Oct 2003 13:09 | ||
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| I've been slowly climbing up the limits and have now played my 2000th hand of $2/$4. Im averaging 4.2 BBs/hr. Although I know thats probably not sustainable, I am confident that I can average 2.5 or so. I know I know..."2000 hands is not enough to be statistically significant". I actually disagree with that statement. Anyone who has studied statistics knows that it takes a surprisingly small sample to acurately represent the final result (census, election polls, Neilsen ratings). Anyway, the reason for this post is to thank the regulars on this site for the excellent format and excellent advice given daily. It has elevated me from a better than average player to what I consider to be regularly one the best players at my table. I still have a lot to learn and will continue to ask questions. Once again....Thanks! | ||
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| Re: This site rocks!, Blade, 30. Oct 2003 13:41 | ||
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| The problem with you statistical sample analogy is that unlike most evenly dispersed populations poker can be a game of streaks and until you have both ends of the streak in your population your average is skewed. You still may be winning at that rate there is no way for anyone to know. | ||
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| Re: This site rocks!, iceman5, 30. Oct 2003 14:20 | ||
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| I know what you're saying, and I have had a streak within that 2000 hands where I won 1 hand out of 80 and lost about 25BBs ($100), but thats the worst streak Ive had. I played about another hour and a half and won $65 back. Im sure there will be longer losing streaks in the future but I think controlling your emotions and table selection play a big part in keeping them to a minimum. By the way, I played horribly during that streak and Im not afraid to admit it. And like I said, I dont have any illusions that I can continue to win 4BBs/hr+ long term, but I am confident that Im one of the better $2/$4 players and hope to improve enough to contniue to climb the limit ladder. | ||
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| Re: This site rocks!, hokie95, 30. Oct 2003 14:40 | ||
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| Are you playing online or live? If you are playing online, you are probably playing 2x or more hands/hour than you would playing live. So, 4.2BB an hour may reduce to less than 2BB/hour at a 30 hands/hour clip you might find live (I think that's what is usually listed as the average for live play....) 2000/30=66.666666 hours. So if you are up $1,119 (66.666666 * 4.2 * $4) in those 2,000 hands, you're right. And congrats. If, on the other hand, you are up $250. Well, I may have some bad news..... Side note: Is there an industry standard for calculating win/loss rates other than, well, I played for 2 hours and I'm up X amount? -Hokie95 "You have a 1:51 chance of being dealt the A of spades as your first hole card. The odds go down significantly if the A of spades is up my sleeve." | ||
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| Re: This site rocks!, hokie95, 30. Oct 2003 14:44 | ||
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| p.s. -- the point of my post is an honest curiosity re: calculating win rates and taking into account the vagaries of hands/hour, not to either (1) take away from your main message that this site rocks (I agree) or (2) denigrate winning at a 4.2 BB/hour clip regardless of the # of hands per hour. You're up after 2000 hands. You're doing something right. -Hokie95 "You have a 1:51 chance of being dealt the A of spades as your first hole card. The odds go down significantly if the A of spades is up my sleeve." | ||
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| Re: This site rocks!, iceman5, 30. Oct 2003 15:19 | ||
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| I was under the assumption that the pros shoot for 1 to 1.5 bbs/hr. Since playing live the average is around 30 hands /hr, and online I average 55 hands /hr, I set my goal at about 2.5 BB/hr. 2000 hands / 55 hands per hr = 36.4 hours. $4 x 4.2 x 36.4= approx $611 which is how much Ive won since moving up to $2/$4. This works out to 2.3BB/hr if I was playing live and only playing 30 hands/hr. Im pretty happy with that. | ||
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| Re: This site rocks!, hokie95, 30. Oct 2003 15:21 | ||
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| on 30. Oct 2003 15:19 iceman5 wrote: This works out to 2.3BB/hr if I was playing live and only playing 30 hands/hr. Im pretty happy > with that. I would be too. Keep it up!! -Hokie95 "You have a 1:51 chance of being dealt the A of spades as your first hole card. The odds go down significantly if the A of spades is up my sleeve." | ||
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| Re: This site rocks!, Blade, 30. Oct 2003 14:56 | ||
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| I don't think 4bb/hr at 2-4 is unrealistic at all. You may even improve on it. Let's face it the 2BB/HR has absolutely 0 science or math behind it. Its an old rule of thumb that has been around along time and become accepted. My only was point was that current win rates can be very sporatic and until you have gone though everyting (which I for one haven't) it is better to focus on things you can control such as specific decision making. But I am a stat geek so I can understand the fun. | ||
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| Re: This site rocks!, Schuster, 30. Oct 2003 15:36 | ||
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| > I actually disagree with > that statement. Anyone who has studied statistics knows that it takes a > surprisingly small sample to acurately represent the final result (census, > election polls, Neilsen ratings). The reason that these things can be represented by a smaller sample is that there are many less possible outcomes. In poker, there are practically an infinite amount of situations you can be in, and as a result, it takes a lot longer to get a good statistical sample. Lee | ||
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| Re: This site rocks!, Barry T, 31. Oct 2003 11:25 | ||
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| Hi. Ice, I am wondering just how arrogant one has to be to state the Sklansky, Malmuth, Kinberg, and a host of other exceptional statistical mathematicians know nothing about statistics? Anyway, good luck with your new conclusion that calculating an hourly rate after 2000 hands is "statistically significant". When you feel you can safely compute the confidence interval for hourly rate at 2000 hands, please post that as well. BarryT | ||
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| Re: This site rocks!, iceman5, 31. Oct 2003 17:41 | ||
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| on 31. Oct 2003 11:25 Barry T wrote: > Hi. Ice, I am wondering just how arrogant one has to be to state the Sklansky, > Malmuth, Kinberg, and a host of other exceptional statistical mathematicians know > nothing about statistics? > > Anyway, good luck with your new conclusion that calculating an hourly rate after > 2000 hands is "statistically significant". When you feel you can safely compute the > confidence interval for hourly rate at 2000 hands, please post that as well. > > BarryT Barry, I never said that Sklansky, Malmuth or anyone else knew nothing about statistics. I said that I disagree with that statement. Is my hourly rate so astronomically high that it sounds like I made it up? I dont think so. Am I confident enough after 2000 hands that I can quit my job and play professionally? No, and I dont want to anyway. But after 2000 hands at $2/$4 and probably 20000 hands at lower limits, and about 200 SNG's I am confident that Im an above average player at my limits. I wasnt trying to brag. I was thanking the people on this site for helping me get there. By the way, I play under the name "utrecht" on PokerStars if you wanna come take some of my money. | ||
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| Re: This site rocks!, Barry T, 31. Oct 2003 19:17 | ||
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| Hi. Ice, I'm sorry if I misunderstood. When you said anyone who disagrees knows nothing aobut statistics when the established knowledge base says that 2000 is very small number of trials, it sounded as if you were discounting everyone else who did the math before you. I am glad to hear you are a winning player, and I hope you keep it up. I suggest you (and everyone) purchase a copy of StatKing, enter all of your results, and take a look at the outcomes (including the "How long will it take for my hourly rate to be accurate?" part.) I am very glad you like the site. I do tooo...I think it is the best! And your money is safe from me. I have a PokerStars account but I have not played there. am PokerBear at Party Poker if you would like mine. :-) BarrryT | ||
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| Re: This site rocks!, iceman5, 31. Oct 2003 20:14 | ||
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| Actually, I have been thinking about trying Party since Ive heard the games there are softer. Although, I have a feeling you play at limits out of reach to me at this point. If bankroll wasnt an obstacle, is there a big difference in quality of play between $2/$4 and , lets say, $5/$10 at Party? I did download Party's software once, but didnt like the graphics so I never opened an account but may now. | ||
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| Re: This site rocks!, Barry T, 1. Nov 2003 01:31 | ||
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| HI. Party has improved a lot (the basic table graphics are pretty much the same, but everything else is better.) The games are very soft. I am sorry I cannot speak to the low limits, but,...wait, I'll count...there are 18 tables of 2-4 and 26 tables of 5-10 and about 25 tables of 3-6 at this moment. They can't ALL be great players. .And this is a very slow time at Party right now!! Only 6,000 players (peak they get 20,000). Give it a try, I think. And good luck. BarryT | ||
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