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Server Time: 11/23/2008 4:22:18 AM PACIFIC |
 Opinions on AK or AQ heads up., droqqa, 29. Oct 2003 13:33 | ||
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| Say you are in a low-limit game, with one EP-MP limper. You have AK or AQ and raise from late position, leaving just you heads up with the limper. The flop comes and it is something like J83, rainbow. He bets into you. It is likely that he is going to see this to the river and you will not be able to bet him out of the pot unless an A falls. How do you play this? Just muck it? Raise on the flop and take a free card on the turn if you dont hit? This scenario seems to come up quite often and I am just curious how others are playing it. Thanks D | ||
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| Re: Opinions on AK or AQ heads up., FlopDaNutz, 29. Oct 2003 13:43 | ||
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| I think raising in hopes for a free card on turn would be best. If you dont hit turn and he bets into you again, then I would fold. | ||
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| Re: Opinions on AK or AQ heads up., shorn, 29. Oct 2003 14:10 | ||
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| Raise the flop. His bet is telling you one of two things: he has a Jack and likes his hand, or that he doesn't think the flop hit you and he is representing a smaller pair. If he re-raises you on the flop, then you have to re-evaluate and either just call to see the turn or muck. But, more than likely, if he doesn't have JJ or better, he will call your raise and then let you get to the river for free if you so choose. So in effect, you pay the extra 1/2 bet to try and hit an Ace or Kin on the next two cards. Depending on the player, you may have to call a river bet if you miss, but in LL most times a bet/call raise/check/bet river player has at least a pair. | ||
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| Re: Opinions on AK or AQ heads up., mkpoker, 29. Oct 2003 15:04 | ||
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| I think this is a great hypothetical on a very common situation. I too would raise, for the following reasons. 1. There's a very good chance you're ahead here. That's a pretty raggy flop, and it's unlikely he open-limped with the kinds of hands that would fit it like a glove. (For example, he probably wouldn't have open-limped with JT, if he's a good player...he should save that for a volume hand). He might have a hand like KJ, QJs, or a high-middle pair like 99 or TT. However, I'd take about even money that missed, too, after limping with a hand like AT, KQ, KT, QTs, etc. 2. His bet probably doesn't mean much. If I were the opponent, I'd guess (correctly) that big overcards were your most likely holding. I'd bet out representing a pair, hoping you'll toss your AK. 3. If you are behind, it's not by much...and you've probably got 6 good outs. It's highly unlikely your opponent would open limp with 88 or 33. It's possible he'd limp with JJ, and you'd be in trouble, but that's a long shot. If the flop did hit him, he's probably got top pair, pretty good kicker (for example KJ, QJ). That means if you make a pair, it'll PROBABLY be good (there is a chance that he could make two-pair, however). So I'd fire out a raise. My guess is he folds. If he calls and the turn is a blank and he checks, I'd check right back and take the free card. If the river is a blank also, it's a tough call. It should also be noted that the situation would be very different if there were multiple callers in the pot. Then, I'd probably muck AK with a sigh. It's just too likely that flop hit someone. | ||
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| Re: Opinions on AK or AQ heads up., KJo, 29. Oct 2003 17:26 | ||
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| You don't think someone in EP-MP in a LL game would limp with JT, 88 or 33? No offense dude, but are you high? The better could have 72o or AA and I wouldn't be surprised either way. I think in a LL game the better likely paired the jack. For a LL player to ignore the "check to the raiser" mantra is unusual, he must have something. For deception I'd raise the flop to make sure he's serious and try for a free card, but fold to a reraise. Eli on 29. Oct 2003 15:04 mkpoker wrote: > I think this is a great hypothetical on a very common situation. I too would raise, > for the following reasons. > > 1. There's a very good chance you're ahead here. That's a pretty raggy flop, and > it's unlikely he open-limped with the kinds of hands that would fit it like a glove. > (For example, he probably wouldn't have open-limped with JT, if he's a good > player...he should save that for a volume hand). He might have a hand like KJ, QJs, > or a high-middle pair like 99 or TT. However, I'd take about even money that missed, > too, after limping with a hand like AT, KQ, KT, QTs, etc. > > 2. His bet probably doesn't mean much. If I were the opponent, I'd guess > (correctly) that big overcards were your most likely holding. I'd bet out > representing a pair, hoping you'll toss your AK. > > 3. If you are behind, it's not by much...and you've probably got 6 good outs. It's > highly unlikely your opponent would open limp with 88 or 33. It's possible he'd limp > with JJ, and you'd be in trouble, but that's a long shot. If the flop did hit him, > he's probably got top pair, pretty good kicker (for example KJ, QJ). That means if > you make a pair, it'll PROBABLY be good (there is a chance that he could make > two-pair, however). > > So I'd fire out a raise. My guess is he folds. If he calls and the turn is a blank > and he checks, I'd check right back and take the free card. If the river is a blank > also, it's a tough call. > > It should also be noted that the situation would be very different if there were > multiple callers in the pot. Then, I'd probably muck AK with a sigh. It's just too > likely that flop hit someone. | ||
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| Re: Opinions on AK or AQ heads up., mkpoker, 29. Oct 2003 17:44 | ||
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| As with all things poker, it depends on your knowledge of your opponent. Sure, it's possible he could have 33. But that's generally not a correct open-limp, and I think most players won't make it. JTs? You're probably right there. Personally, I think it's a bad open-limp (totally dependent on position and table texture of course) but lots of players love that hand in all circumstances...I shouldn't discount it. But if I were in the poster's shoes (holding AK heads up with a flop of J83 against an EP open-limper who bets out on the flop), I'd guess there's: 1. A 45 percent chance I'm ahead--that the flop missed the limper entirely and he's trying to bluff the pot here. 2. A 45 percent chance I'm behind to a single pair (probably jacks, but 99 and TT also possible) and have 6 good outs. 3. A 10 percent chance I'm in big trouble, behind either to trips (with JJJ being the most likely) or a hand like KJ, which kills half my outs. I could also be behind to KK or AA, but most players will raise (or reraise) these hands...this seems the most unlikely scenario. (Obviously I've just made these percentages up, as I would at the tables. I haven't done any computation to estimate the percentage chances of my opponent holding particular cards). I'm happy to play this pot in situations 1 or 2...and because 1 & 2 are so much more likely than 3, I'm raising. | ||
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| Re: Opinions on AK or AQ heads up., Mark Gregorich, 29. Oct 2003 21:05 | ||
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| I think it sets a bad precedent to fold here very often. You don't want your opponents to think that you'll automatically fold every time you miss the flop. Of course, its questionable about how closely most of your lower limit opponents will be paying attention. Certainly against certain types of players (stereotypical rocks and unimaginative players), folding would be correct. I would tend to agree with most of the advice in this thread that raising to get a free card is frequently the best play, though. If they lead into you on the turn, though, this generally means that they have at least a pair, so you can frequently fold then if you haven't improved. Mark | ||
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| Re: Opinions on AK or AQ heads up., Formless, 30. Oct 2003 06:06 | ||
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| Whatever you do, just remember 3 things and act accordingly: -If your opponent can get you to fold even 20% of the time by betting out on the flop, they show an immediate profit. So you can't just fold every time here. -They will have a pair or a decent draw with a limping hand at least a third of the time (I'm guessing) with this board on the flop. Players don't often bet into preflop raisers without at least bottom pair or a draw, so it is much better than 30% that you are behind, I think. And when they bet out on the flop, they usually intend on staying around until showdown. So you are probably behind and not going to be able to bluff your opponent out of the pot. -If your overcards are clean outs, I think you roughly have the right implied odds to call. You hate to run into A8 when your Ace falls. You can also try calling the flop, then raising on the turn, maybe if the turn card is something like a Q . If you are commited to calling this down, then you might as well raise the turn to either win right there or get it checked to you on the river. If it is 3 bet, you can fold. Either way, mix it up. on 29. Oct 2003 13:33 droqqa wrote: > Say you are in a low-limit game, with one EP-MP limper. You have AK or AQ and > raise from late position, leaving just you heads up with the limper. The flop > comes and it is something like J83, rainbow. He bets into you. It is likely > that he is going to see this to the river and you will not be able to bet him > out of the pot unless an A falls. How do you play this? Just muck it? Raise > on the flop and take a free card on the turn if you dont hit? This scenario > seems to come up quite often and I am just curious how others are playing it. > > > Thanks > > D | ||
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| Re: Opinions on AK or AQ heads up., Piers Majestyk, 30. Oct 2003 12:45 | ||
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| Nobody has mentioned the fact the guy might just have AJ as well and you are in serious trouble. I very rarely raise this hand from EP to MP depending on the table of course and sometime fold in EP but if I hit a jack on this flop and you raise me with your AK which is what I will put you on with a raise (if I had better than AJ I would let you fire into me on the turn before I raised you) I will three bet you and lead at you again on the turn unless perhaps a K hits. I guess my point is the guy has something in all likelihood if he bets into you after a preflop raise and you are going to have to improve (then you need to know if this person will let you get to the river for the extra small bet, if not then perhaps a call on the flop and muck the turn without improvement). Good luck. | ||
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