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Server Time: 8/30/2008 7:11:35 AM PACIFIC |
 Did I Muck QQ Preflop?, Bart Mann, 28. Oct 2003 08:46 | ||
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| I was put on a tough decision last night, and I’d like to see what some of you out there would have done if put in my place. 10-handed SNG last night at UB. Payouts are 50% for first place, 30% for second place and 20% for third place (I thought it was important to clarify what we’re playing for). Everyone starts with T1000 and the blinds open at 5/10. From the very start of the tournament, the player three to my right has decided that every hand is going to be T65 to see the flop. So my first five hands go fold-fold-fold-fold-fold. Nothing to play. Then on the sixth hand of the tournament I get dealt QQ in middle position. Mr. 65 makes it T65 to go, and I reraise with a pot-sized bet (T80). What happens next defies all logic. The three players to my immediate left go All-In, All-In and All-In. Whoa. Then it goes fold-fold-fold to Mr. 65. He thinks about it, then pushes All-In as well. Monster pot fever! Everyone else folds, and the action is to me. So let’s summarize--we have 4 players all-in preflop and 1 pending (me), on what is the sixth hand of the tournament. I am holding QQ, and would be the last one of five players to put my money in the middle should I decide to call this bet. The words of Doyle Brunson begin to ring loudly in my ears, “If you’re involved in an all-in pot, make sure you’re the one who put his money in first.” In this case I would be the fifth person to push all-in—and since this is a tournament, I knew that once this hand was played there would be three empty chairs . . . so I folded. As expected, the flop comes Q-2-2, giving me what would have been a huge full house. The Turn and River are 10 and 7. The cards finally come over, and I could not believe what I saw. The first person to go all-in (player to my left) was on a steal with 7-7. The player to his left had KQc, and the player to his left had AKs. Mr. 65, who called the all-in bet last, had J10s. The player to my left holding 7-7 took down a massive pot, and we were down to seven players less than 10 minutes into the tournament. All’s well that ends well, I guess—I ended up finishing second and taking 30% of the prize money. But I can’t help thinking about what might have been—T5000 in chips at a 6-person table with 5/10 blinds. It would have been so fun . . . Thoughts? | ||
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| Re: Did I Muck QQ Preflop?, Schuster, 28. Oct 2003 09:13 | ||
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| Easy fold in that spot. Sometimes people just get big pot fever and want to gamble. You did the right thing, regardless of what came on the board. Lee | ||
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| Re: Did I Muck QQ Preflop?, chasepoker, 28. Oct 2003 09:16 | ||
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| I would mucked QQ here almost everytime the fact that a) you flopped a Queen and b) no one had KK or AA is irrelevant. I would estimate that even in these loose tournaments 70% of the time someone will have a KK or AA . Further to this the way to win these sit and go's is to NOT even call with the QQ all in if you know someone has a hand which gives you a 50-50 unless you are short or large stacked. If you are a decent player you will find better situations than this later in the tournament. Finally your QQ will only win 40% of the time in this situation so 60% of the time you lose and 40% of the time you will quadrouple up and whilst it increases you chances of winning against 6 other players you are not assured enough of a payout to take the risk. Chasepoker | ||
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| Re: Did I Muck QQ Preflop?, shorn, 28. Oct 2003 09:28 | ||
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| This should be one of the easiest folds that you can make. There is no question that at best you are a 52/48 favorite and with all of those players calling all-in, KK and AA being out isn't that unlikely. The result of the flop is meaningless as you had to make your decision before that information was available. If I had this situation 100 times, I would fold every single time. | ||
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| Follow-Up Question . . ., Bart Mann, 28. Oct 2003 11:32 | ||
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| For Schuster, chasepoker, shorn and anyone else who would like to respond. Would you have called with KK? What about AK? Or even AA? If you are guaranteed at the end of a hand in a tournament (where you're essentially playing at the final table) that the table will lose 3 players, is it best to get out of the way under ANY circumstances? WIth four all-in bets you almost have to assume that AA, KK and/or AK are out there in someone's hand. Would you risk a call with any of these hands knowing that there was a chance you'd be drawing dead? Food for thought. Look forward to the responses. - Bart - | ||
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| Re: Follow-Up Question . . ., Blade, 28. Oct 2003 11:34 | ||
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| AK..No easy AA..Yes..easy KK..................I don't know....tough call either way but with four all-ins I would think 1 AA & 1 Ak so I would fold | ||
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| Re: Follow-Up Question . . ., chasepoker, 28. Oct 2003 11:59 | ||
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| ***Amendment to my first post odds of winning with QQ are 27% *** I think that you have raised a very good question here as i sat here initially before thinking that i would fold AK straight away, would probably call KK and without hesitating call with AA ( though with AA and probably KK i might have raised more intially to prevent this kind of situation ! ). But then i did the maths ( and thats when i found out the error corrected above ) and found the following Against 7d 7c, qc kc, as ks , jd td the following hands do the following cards %win Qd Qh 27.56 7c 7d 17.46 Kc Qc 9.28 As Ks 31.78 Jd Td 12.97 cards %win Kd K 28.66 7c 7d 18.81 Kc Qc 11.50 As Ks 26.63 Jd Td 14.01 cards %win Ad Kh 2.10 7c 7d 26.09 Kc Qc 20.86 As Ks 8.65 Jd Td 25.44 cards %win Ad Ah 44.76 7c 7d 17.11 Kc Qc 11.83 As Ks 10.02 Jd Td 15.17 So this shows that it is probably incorrect to call with QQ ( 28%) and definitely incorrect with AK ( 2% ) however it gets interesting when you see the KK and AA results ! For KK you get an extra 1% so thats a fold ! And even the AA result of 40% is probably not enough to call ! SO does anyone call here with the AA ? Cheers Chase | ||
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| Re: Follow-Up Question . . ., shorn, 28. Oct 2003 12:02 | ||
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| Thanks for the math Chase. I didn't run it, but it confirms my thoughts that even against so many inferior hands, AA isn't even a favborite to win the hand at 44%. So, a definite fold here given the circumstances. | ||
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| Re: Follow-Up Question . . ., Schuster, 28. Oct 2003 13:58 | ||
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| I would fold AK and KK because I don't see how the action could fall down this way without at least one of the players having AA. However, I have to disagree with shorn and say that if I have AA, I'm calling in a heartbeat. The likelyhood of another AA out there is very small, and even though you are slightly worse than 50% to win the hand, you're getting a huge return on the money. It's early in the tournament, if you do happen to get busted, then sit down in another one. But if you win, it's almost a guarantee that you make the money. Some maths: First, I'd suspect that the best sng players have a return rate of about 50% of the buy in. If you call here and win, you'll have half the chips at the table, which will nearly guarantee you to finish in the money. The 55% of times that you lose, you can just sit down in another one. It's better to bust out quick than to bust out 4th as far as hourly rate is concerned. The 45% of times that you win, you're looking at a minimum 100% return, but possibly 200% and 400%. I'd figure with half the chips so early, I'd make the money about 85%, and then just for estimation we'll say I finish 1st, 2nd, and 3rd an equal number of those times that I do make the money, making my average return 233%. Multiply it all together (45% * 85% * 233%) and the return is just short of 90%. These numbers are a lot of estimations, but the fact that the figure is so far over the accepted return rate leads me to believe that calling is the only correct play here, with AA. Lee | ||
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| Re: Follow-Up Question . . ., chasepoker, 29. Oct 2003 02:31 | ||
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| Lee what about if it was a mutli table tournament ? Is this is a similar situation to the example of big bet poker that Andy Glazer wrote about in last weeks card player magazine?. I dont think i would ever throw away AA here but let me pose a different question " What % of winning the hand would you need before you took a risk of increasing your stack by five times at the WSOP and how would this change is you are Helmuth/ Chan/ whoever is the best in the world ? " on 28. Oct 2003 13:58 Schuster wrote: > I would fold AK and KK because I don't see how the action could fall down this way without at least > one of the players having AA. However, I have to disagree with shorn and say that if I have AA, I'm > calling in a heartbeat. The likelyhood of another AA out there is very small, and even though you > are slightly worse than 50% to win the hand, you're getting a huge return on the money. It's early > in the tournament, if you do happen to get busted, then sit down in another one. But if you win, > it's almost a guarantee that you make the money. > > Some maths: > First, I'd suspect that the best sng players have a return rate of about 50% of the buy in. If you > call here and win, you'll have half the chips at the table, which will nearly guarantee you to > finish in the money. The 55% of times that you lose, you can just sit down in another one. It's > better to bust out quick than to bust out 4th as far as hourly rate is concerned. The 45% of times > that you win, you're looking at a minimum 100% return, but possibly 200% and 400%. I'd figure with > half the chips so early, I'd make the money about 85%, and then just for estimation we'll say I > finish 1st, 2nd, and 3rd an equal number of those times that I do make the money, making my average > return 233%. Multiply it all together (45% * 85% * 233%) and the return is just short of 90%. > These numbers are a lot of estimations, but the fact that the figure is so far over the accepted > return rate leads me to believe that calling is the only correct play here, with AA. > > Lee Chasepoker | ||
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| Re: Follow-Up Question . . ., Schuster, 29. Oct 2003 10:01 | ||
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| If it were a multi table, I would still probably play. If I bust out early, I can just sit down in a ring game or maybe another multi. If I win, I'll have a big edge on the rest of the table. Generally, if I spot a chance where I'm better than 2.5 to 1 and I can get all the chips in the center, I'll usually take it early in a multi table. I'd rather get the big stack early or bust, then run the risk of grinding out a long no-money finish. That's just me though, I'm sure others would do it differently. If I was at the WSOP, the thing is, I wouldn't figure myself to be one of the better players in the tournament, so I'd be willing to take some more gambles. If I had the chance for a 5x return on my stack, I'd probably take as low 33%. I know that I'd need to get lucky to finish in the money there, and there aren't many better spots to press my luck. I still have the best of it with that figure. For Hellmuth or Chan or whoever, I really couldn't say, because I really don't know how good they really are. Sure, I know they're good, but I don't know what it's like from inside their minds. Lee | ||
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| Re: Follow-Up Question . . ., Blade, 28. Oct 2003 12:10 | ||
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| Interesting. Not sure if it changes my call but I don't play tournaments and have ring game only perspective which is completely different. Still I would probably call unless those players going bust automtically put me in the money. Otherwise I take my chances knowing that I have the best hand going in and that I am probably up against other high PP or face cards. If I lose I lose when I have the best of it, if I win I am looking to take first. | ||
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| Re: Follow-Up Question . . ., shorn, 28. Oct 2003 12:42 | ||
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| Yes, ring game strategy is different and I would call there too. However, you aren't calling as the favorite to win the hand against the field here, so that is why it is a good fold. Your hand will win more than any of the others, but the combined %'s aren't in your favor. So, bottom line if you played this situation out 100 times, you would come out a loser. | ||
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| Re: Follow-Up Question . . ., Blade, 28. Oct 2003 12:58 | ||
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| True but what I think may be more important is on the times that you are a winner would you go on to win more tournaments than you would if you were to fold everytime. Clearly if you would then you will win more money and it is a correct call. Now this is a truly tough question. I would think that for very good players a fold would be correct as they will win a high percentage anyways. However for lessor players calling may be correct as they on the times they do win (44% I think) they will most likely finish in the money a majority of the time, thus increasing their overall profits. If they went on to finish in the money 90% of the time then they woud finish in the money in total (44% * 90%) roughly 40% of the time. It would seen then to me that the answer is do you finish in the money more than 40% of the time. If so then folding is correct, if not than calling is correct. Yes? No? I maybe completely crazy | ||
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| Re: Follow-Up Question . . ., Bart Mann, 28. Oct 2003 13:09 | ||
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| Your point on skill level is well taken. Looking back, my decision was based in part on my confidence that I could still win the tournament without taking down this huge pot. I'm guessing the more tournament experience a player has, the more likely they are to muck good hands and look for opportunities elsewhere. It only takes one victorious comback from <T200 to prove to yourself that it can be done . . . and one horrendous loss from >T8000 to realize that having a mountain of chips is not a guarantee of victory. | ||
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| Re: Follow-Up Question . . ., shorn, 28. Oct 2003 12:00 | ||
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| Definitely not with AK orK. As blade points out, the likelihood that no one has AA is pretty low. In fact, I think i would muck AA here too simply because so many players have already gone all in. With this many players, the likelihood that AA will hold up is much smaller and I can sit on the side and see three others get eliminated. Even if I do call, someone else could also have AA and then I need 4 of my suit to come in. Mucking also gets you much closer to the money here, where calling and winning, while giving you a huge stack, wins you nothing. Sklansky talks about this in his tournament book where he states that on the bubble or as the payouts get much higher in the top 3 spots, it may be best to fold even AA to reach that higher money position, especially when facing multiple all-in callers already. The reason is because the difference between losing right on the bubble or in 4th position is so much higher than the reward of taking down that one pot. Remember that in NL tourny's, each chip you win is worth less than the previous one and each chip you lose is worth more than the previous one. I would most likely call against two other opponents (as they could hold hands such as AQs, AK for the first guy, and JJ-KK for the second), but the presence of the third one (who, unless he is stupid, would hold no less than KK and probably AA) would get me to fold. Obviously in this case, those hands weren't out there, but I wouldn't bet on seeing that too often, even in the fishy SnG's online. | ||
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| Re: Follow-Up Question . . ., LJH, 28. Oct 2003 12:47 | ||
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| BART, YOU CAN'T WIN THE TOURNAMENT THAT EARLY SO EVEN WITH ACES YOU MUST FOLD. LJH | ||
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| Re: Did I Muck QQ Preflop?, LJH, 28. Oct 2003 12:43 | ||
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| BART, YOU DID IT RIGHT. HOW MANY TIMES ARE YOU GOING TO FLOP WHAT CAME UP. MAYBE ONCE IN A MILLION. GOOD PLAYING ON YOUR PART. LJH | ||
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| Re: Did I Muck QQ Preflop?, Cpt Kernow, 29. Oct 2003 07:24 | ||
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| Easy call with AA. I play eclusively SNG at party. I finish in the money 42% of the time. To not finish in the money after aquiring half the chips on the table would be an absolute poker catastrophe that would require some absolute horrid play on my behalf. After you have half the chips, why play anymore hands? you can prety much fold youre way into the money. As long as u maintain 1/3 of the chips whilst the other 2/3 chips aggregate into the hands of 2 other players you are gaurenteed a money finsh. This call would give me a 2% edge over mu normal win rate so I would take it. | ||
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| Re: Did I Muck QQ Preflop?, Bart Mann, 29. Oct 2003 08:27 | ||
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| Playing Devil's advocate for a minute here . . . based on some of the posts in this thread, there are basically two things that are "perceived" to get you closer to the money in a tournament: 1) less players, and 2) more chips. Less players is easy to prove--if you start with 10 players and 3 get knocked out on one hand, there are 7 left and there are now by definition 4 places between you and the money. But I agree with shorn on the second one--more chips is no guarantee of finishing in the money, and from a purely theoretical perspective having more chips does not put you any closer to the money--unless you knock out other players to get those chips. Astute players will easily figure out that you're sandbagging with your big stack, and they'll begin leaving each other alone and raising to steal your blinds. Eventually you'll have to come down off of the stack and try to eliminate them, and then it's right back to playing poker again. Would you rather have a monster stack with 7 players left, or a medium stack and only four? | ||
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| Example Scenario, Bart Mann, 29. Oct 2003 08:52 | ||
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| Let me throw a scenario out to everyone, just for fun. You sit down at a 10-handed tournament with an entry fee of $100. The tournament pays three places—$500 for first, $300 for second and $200 for third. Everyone starts with T1000 in chips. Just as the tournament is about to start, a magic poker fairy appears and offers you a proposition: she will either give you T5000 extra in chips, or eliminate 5 players from the tournament and give the T5000 to one of the remaining players. What would you do? Take a significant chip lead with a full table, or start only two places from the money with an average-sized chip stack? I’m not positive, but I’m guessing most people would take the second option—which proves, I think, that early in a single-table tournament the elimination of players is much more important than the collection of chips. Thoughts, anyone? | ||
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| Re: Example Scenario, aussiedude, 29. Oct 2003 09:29 | ||
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| Quick question for you Bart...did the guy who took down the huge pot with the 7-7 end up winning it? If he didn't, then I think it answers your question in your last post. As most players who particiapte in SnG's on any sort of regular basis know, these things are generally a crapshoot. My best comeback was on a $10 Party NLHE SnG, where I got to heads-up play as a 7550-450 chip dog. After going all in and catching some lucky boards, I ended up beating my opponent about 15 hands later. As you said, having a huge stack early (or even late) doesn't guarantee victory in these things. | ||
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| Re: Example Scenario, Bart Mann, 29. Oct 2003 10:43 | ||
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| No, he didn't. I think he went out around 5th or so. | ||
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| Re: Example Scenario, shorn, 29. Oct 2003 10:35 | ||
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| I take the less players option every time... | ||
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