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Server Time: 3/17/2010 7:58:16 PM PACIFIC |
 Odds for flopping a set?, csi, 27. Oct 2003 16:24 | ||
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| Could some one please show me the math in figuring out the odds for flopping a set? I believe it's something like 7:1 but I'm not sure how to calculate that. Thanks for your time. Cheers! | ||
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| Re: Odds for flopping a set?, modestmice, 27. Oct 2003 16:30 | ||
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| what site and user name do u play 20-40 ? | ||
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| Re: Odds for flopping a set?, ManicStarSeed, 27. Oct 2003 16:39 | ||
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| on 27. Oct 2003 16:30 modestmice wrote: > what site and user name do u play 20-40 ? LOL... I think | ||
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| Re: Odds for flopping a set?, modestmice, 27. Oct 2003 16:41 | ||
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| i apologize in advance.....i couldnt help it | ||
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| Re: Odds for flopping a set?, modestmice, 27. Oct 2003 16:50 | ||
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| btw, i believe its 11-1, but i suck at math | ||
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| Re: Odds for flopping a set?, Schuster, 27. Oct 2003 17:36 | ||
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| What site and username do you play at? ;-) Lee | ||
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| Re: Odds for flopping a set?, modestmice, 27. Oct 2003 17:38 | ||
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| like i said. i suck at math. i dont play 20/40. lol | ||
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| Re: Odds for flopping a set?, Denver, 27. Oct 2003 16:50 | ||
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| I have it figured at 3.85% of the time which are odds exceeding 24:1...Is that correct? I don't play 20/40 so if I'm wrong I'm only making bad calculations with a couple bucks at stake... | ||
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| Re: Odds for flopping a set?, Denver, 27. Oct 2003 16:51 | ||
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| now that I think about it I am wrong... | ||
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| Re: Odds for flopping a set?, modestmice, 27. Oct 2003 16:53 | ||
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| yeah, i know. what site do you play at whats your handle? | ||
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| Re: Odds for flopping a set?, ManicStarSeed, 27. Oct 2003 16:54 | ||
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| on 27. Oct 2003 16:53 modestmice wrote: > yeah, i know. what site do you play at whats your handle? > And you? .... I play as Dupree at UB | ||
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| Re: Odds for flopping a set?, Denver, 27. Oct 2003 16:58 | ||
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| lol...I'm not giving you guys the chance to seek me out and destroy the learning curve... | ||
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| Re: Odds for flopping a set?, ManicStarSeed, 27. Oct 2003 16:53 | ||
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| Per http://www.poker1.com/mcu/tables/Table25.asp the odds are effectivly 12:1 Mss | ||
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| Re: Odds for flopping a set?, csi, 27. Oct 2003 17:02 | ||
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| A serious and relevant reply only would greatly be appreciated. I Thank you in advance. Cheers! | ||
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| Re: Odds for flopping a set?, modestmice, 27. Oct 2003 17:10 | ||
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| this is a serious and relevant reply: Percentage=11.79 Odds against =7.51 to 1 on 27. Oct 2003 17:02 csi wrote: > A serious and relevant reply only would greatly be appreciated. I Thank you in advance. > Cheers! | ||
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| Re: Odds for flopping a set?, Stan Chraminski, 30. Oct 2003 09:13 | ||
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| Lee Jones book lists this as 7.5 -1 Sklansky shows it at 11.8 % or over 8 -1. Probably 8-1 is close enough for pot odds estimate. \ | ||
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| Re: Odds for flopping a set?, modestmice, 27. Oct 2003 16:59 | ||
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| i suk at math. always confuse odds and percentages If you hold a Pair, at least one more of that kind will Flop Percentage=11.79 Odds against =7.51 to 1 | ||
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| Re: Odds for flopping a set?, modestmice, 27. Oct 2003 17:01 | ||
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| im a math tard. i thought i was right 11-1, then i thought i was wrong, then i thought i was right again (almost ) 12-1, then im probably wrong about being right again. | ||
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| Re: Odds for flopping a set?, chasepoker, 29. Oct 2003 02:47 | ||
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| One thing i would say that knowing the odds of flopping a set/ completing a 4 flush on the turn / river, odds of AK beating 22, odds of hitting a gut / openended straight are all pretty important to know as they come up all the time. You dont need to know them exactly but to within 2-3% is pretty important if you cant work them out i would try find out the easiest way for you to do it as they are quite useful ! I would try and explain how i do it but not sure that would help ! on 27. Oct 2003 17:01 modestmice wrote: > im a math tard. > i thought i was right 11-1, then i thought i was wrong, then i thought i was right again > (almost ) 12-1, then im probably wrong about being right again. > Chasepoker | ||
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| Re: Odds for flopping a set?, modestmice, 29. Oct 2003 11:20 | ||
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| are you talking to me? if so, thanks. im familiar with odds. sometimes i switch the the odds and the percentages (as me and another chap did) some pro has said you dont have to be accurate with your odds, pot odds etc as long as in the ballpark. math is not my strongpoint, but as my friends at the track will attest, im decent at odds. i do consider a lot of the math i see done here overkill. on 29. Oct 2003 02:47 chasepoker wrote: > One thing i would say that knowing the odds of flopping a set/ completing a 4 flush on the turn > / river, odds of AK beating 22, odds of hitting a gut / openended straight are all pretty > important to know as they come up all the time. You dont need to know them exactly but to > within 2-3% is pretty important if you cant work them out i would try find out the easiest way > for you to do it as they are quite useful ! I would try and explain how i do it but not sure > that would help ! > > on 27. Oct 2003 17:01 modestmice wrote: > > im a math tard. > > i thought i was right 11-1, then i thought i was wrong, then i thought i was right again > > (almost ) 12-1, then im probably wrong about being right again. > > > > Chasepoker ----------------------------------------------------- "I prefer talking with old persons of the female sex who peddle family gossip; next, with the insane-and last, with very sensible people" -S. Kierkegaard | ||
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| Re: Odds for flopping a set?, PairTheBoard, 27. Oct 2003 17:02 | ||
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| The easiest way is to first figure the probabilty of NOT flopping the set. There are 48 out of 50 cards left that won't hit you. You must miss the first and the second and the third cards on the flop. Chances of this are then: (48/50) * (47/49) * (46/48) = 88.24% This means you WILL hit the set 11.76% of the time. This means the odds against are 88.24 to 11.76 which reduces to 7.5 to 1 | ||
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| Re: Odds for flopping a set?, modestmice, 27. Oct 2003 17:07 | ||
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| thats a pretty relevant and serious reply | ||
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| Re: Odds for flopping a set?, ManicStarSeed, 27. Oct 2003 17:13 | ||
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| Yes I concur.. I mixed up % and odds. it is 11.76% or 7.51:1 | ||
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| Re: Odds for flopping a set?, csi, 27. Oct 2003 17:40 | ||
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| Thanks PairTheBoard, I was never great at probability. I always just learned what the odds were for making certain hands, and never bothered to do the math... so I'm learning now. | ||
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| Re: Odds for flopping a set?, The Fish, 27. Oct 2003 18:12 | ||
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| Hey ..... I'm not sure how familiar you are with Combinatorics .....but there is a way to find out hte probability relatively easily using them.... Now, you asked for the odds of flopping a set. So I shall assume that you want the odds of flopping EXACTLY a set.....not AT LEAST a set ....(note that this would include instances in which you flop a full house and quads). So, the probability of flopping EXACTLY a set are: number of desired outcomes divided by the number of total possible outcomes OR Case 1: Holding a pocket pair: (2C1)*(48C2) / 50C3 = 0.115102041 or 11.51% (this could be very wrong because my calculator didn't have the combinatoric function so I had to use the longer method to calculate it) Case 2: Not holding a pocket pair. (Chance you will flop EXACTLY trips with either card) [ (3C2)*(44C1) / (50C3) ] * 2 = 0.013469388 or about 1.35% csi, although the percentages may be off the work before them I am fairly sure is accurate.......if you would like me to work them out step by step and post it ....I can do that .......or if you want probabilities of flopping AT LEAST trips (those probabilities include flopping a full house and quads) let me know and I will post that as well........and if you would like an explanation of combinatorics I can post that as well ...or of how to work out 50C3 for example ....without the COminb. function on ur calculator ......etc......etc..........but now that i've bored u to tears.......i will stop ...... anyway .........hope this helps Ben | ||
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| Re: Odds for flopping a set?, The Fish, 28. Oct 2003 18:26 | ||
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| One picky detail........the first probability I calculated was wrong ...... (2C1)*(48C2) / 50C3 It should look like this: (2C1)*(48C1)*(44C1) / 50C3 I am too lazy to calculate it out ........got a busy night .........if you want any other details .........post or email me ...... cheers Ben | ||
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| Re: Odds for flopping a set?, LKP, 1. Nov 2003 01:14 | ||
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| Here is the way it's comfortable for me to think about things, which is basically mathematically the same thing as PairTheBoard's method, but this way suits my thinking. Different strokes for different folks, I guess. If you have a pocket pair, there are two cards in the deck that can give you the set. Before the flop, there are 50 cards left in the deck. So the chances that THE FIRST CARD flipped over would complete your set is 2/50. You have three cards on the flop, so you have (roughly) a 2/50 chance three times, or a 6/50 chance. So you have about a 1 out of 8 chance of hitting your set on the flop. I prefer to think of pot odds in terms of 1 out of 8 chance, instead of 7:1 odds - although they're the same thing. I think of the pot as INCLUDING the money I put in. For example, if I had to call a $10 bet and the pot was $70, then the total pot would be $80. This would be 8 times what I had to put in, so I'd call with my 1 out of 8 chance of hitting my hand. That might be a weird way to look at it, but I find it most intuitive. By the way, technically the chances go down as each card comes out on the flop. The first card gives you a 2/50 chance, (assuming you didn't hit your set) the second a 2/49 chance, and (assuming you still didn't hit your set) the third is a 2/48 chance. I pretty much just disregard this aspect and still think of this as 3 tries at a 2/50 chance. | ||
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| Re: Odds for flopping a set?, Schuster, 1. Nov 2003 14:48 | ||
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| This isn't right. What are the odds of one of your matching cards being in the top 25 cards? By your method, it is over 100%. Another example is the odds of flipping heads on a coin is 1/2. Does that mean the odds of flipping one heads in 2 flips is 100%? Lee | ||
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| Re: Odds for flopping a set?, PairTheBoard, 1. Nov 2003 16:49 | ||
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| Lee is right. However LKP's method can be used for quick seat of the pants calculations if you understand how it is in error. The error comes in double counting those cases where you hit your card more than once. LKP's method basically counts the times you hit quads as hitting your set twice. The smaller the chance of such double hits the closer LKP's calculation is to being correct. In this case, as quads are so unlikely, LKP's method is pretty close. You can do fairly good aproxomations using LKP's method if you add the chances and then take away a fudge factor on the order of the product of two of the chances. For example, if you hold two spades with two spades on the flop, what are the chances of completing your flush on one or both of the next two cards? Using LKP's method you would take two shots with 9/47 chance each, giving you 18/47. This is too high though, as it counts the cases of two running spades as hitting the flush twice. So you take away a fudge factor on the order of (9/47)*(9/47). Roughly, without a calculator that gives you about 19% + 19% - 4% = 34%. That's a good enough method of calculation on a lot of things to give you an idea for pot odds and can be done quickly on the fly. | ||
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