|
||
|
||
|
Server Time: 12/2/2008 12:24:23 AM PACIFIC |
 Value Rasing?, Hatchthunder, 22. Oct 2003 10:51 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| My last trip up to Foxwoods led to an interesting discussion about the play of one of the players at my $4-$8 holdem table. He seemed to raise every single time he had an open ended straight or 4 flush. When I commented to the player on my right about the fact that this guy was losing bets he disagreed with me. He said that the guy was value raising. Here is an example of one of his plays: I am in the sb I led out after the flop with a bet, the next guy calls and this guy raises with 3 people behind him. 2 of them folded to the 2 bets before them. I think that this guy is hurting his EV when he raises like that. He will lose the people who would call 1 bet on the flop and he does not even assure himself of a free river card. What do the rest of you think about his play? He did this every time he was on a draw, it was funny if he had the nuts he would only raise on the river. You would know what he had in his hand by what the flop contained. When I am in on a flush or str8 draw I might led out at a pot to try and take it right there or try to get a free card but I will not raise someone who is leading out in front of me. I want lots of callers so when I get my flush or str8 and when the guy bets out in front of me I can raise on the turn or river. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Value Rasing?, modestmice, 22. Oct 2003 10:58 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| on 22. Oct 2003 10:51 Hatchthunder wrote: > My last trip up to Foxwoods led to an interesting discussion about the play of > one of the players at my $4-$8 holdem table. He seemed to raise every single > time he had an open ended straight or 4 flush. When I commented to the player > on my right about the fact that this guy was losing bets he disagreed with me. > He said that the guy was value raising. Here is an example of one of his > plays: > > I am in the sb I led out after the flop with a bet, the next guy calls and this > guy raises with 3 people behind him. 2 of them folded to the 2 bets before > them. I think that this guy is hurting his EV when he raises like that. He > will lose the people who would call 1 bet on the flop and he does not even > assure himself of a free river card. What do the rest of you think about his > play? He did this every time he was on a draw, it was funny if he had the nuts > he would only raise on the river. You would know what he had in his hand by > what the flop contained. > > When I am in on a flush or str8 draw I might led out at a pot to try and take > it right there or try to get a free card but I will not raise someone who is > leading out in front of me. I want lots of callers so when I get my flush or > str8 and when the guy bets out in front of me I can raise on the turn or river. > well i play it more like you do.but i do both, which brings up a good poker point: not doing the same thing over and over. having a betting pattern like that is not good, not good at all. youve got to mix things up to throw people off. its not always wrong to raise on a draw, but its wrong to do it everytime. you dont have to be tricky, just dont follow obvious betting patterns that people will use against you. like the player you all know that raises AK and always bets out the flop and turn no matter what the flop is. everytime. ----------------------------------------------------- "I prefer talking with old persons of the female sex who peddle family gossip; next, with the insane-and last, with very sensible people" -S. Kierkegaard | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Value Rasing?, Hatchthunder, 22. Oct 2003 11:02 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| I agree with your point on not doing the same thing everytime. I will raise occationally on a draw if I think I can get a free card. Thanks for your comments. I just thought that this guy was forcing people who follow him call 2 bets cold. I just think that he will lose more money than he will get from this strategy. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Value Rasing?, modestmice, 22. Oct 2003 11:15 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| on 22. Oct 2003 11:02 Hatchthunder wrote: > I agree with your point on not doing the same thing everytime. I will raise occationally > on a draw if I think I can get a free card. Thanks for your comments. I just thought > that this guy was forcing people who follow him call 2 bets cold. I just think that he > will lose more money than he will get from this strategy. absolutely, not even factoring in that by playing the same way he's losing EV too... ----------------------------------------------------- "I prefer talking with old persons of the female sex who peddle family gossip; next, with the insane-and last, with very sensible people" -S. Kierkegaard | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Value Rasing?, modestmice, 22. Oct 2003 11:31 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| on 22. Oct 2003 11:02 Hatchthunder wrote: > I agree with your point on not doing the same thing everytime. I will raise occationally > on a draw if I think I can get a free card. Thanks for your comments. I just thought > that this guy was forcing people who follow him call 2 bets cold. I just think that he > will lose more money than he will get from this strategy. i should also mention that i m more likely to raise a draw when im playing against players that will slow down completely/fold/check call once a flush/str card hits the turn and therefore wont be able to get any extra bets outta them. but if its loose, why bother raising the flop when you can hit your hand cheaper and get the action you want too. ----------------------------------------------------- "I prefer talking with old persons of the female sex who peddle family gossip; next, with the insane-and last, with very sensible people" -S. Kierkegaard | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Value Rasing?, Flatout_Mainiac, 22. Oct 2003 11:46 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| Correct me if I'm wrong but to value bet a draw you need at least 2 others to come with you. You also need to be sure that your hand will hold up if you hit. I'll bet my draws if I know I can attain at least a couple of the following objective (in no particular order of importance): 1. Free card 2. I will get enough callers that it will be for value and I know I'm drawing to nuts. 3. I will win the pot right there. 4. I my bet will cause my opponent to misread my hand if I hit. I am not a big fan of the value raise because I don't think the bet is going to meet enough of the objective above. Also, it is no fun to watch everyone behind you fold and then the initial bettor make it 3 to go. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Value Rasing?, Blade, 22. Oct 2003 11:56 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| Actually to truly raise for value you need a greater return on you raise then the odds of winnig the pot. Simple as that. Thus if you have a 1-3 chance of making the flush and there are 4 callers who will call an extra bet you should raise every time. Less than 3 you should not raise(based on the draw alone). I have run many simulations and true value raising (which is misunderstood by many) can be done with a number a hands from late position. For anyone involved in Finance you should quickly recognize this as ROI. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Value Rasing?, modestmice, 22. Oct 2003 11:58 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| on 22. Oct 2003 11:46 Flatout_Mainiac wrote: > Correct me if I'm wrong but to value bet a draw you need at least 2 others to come with you. > You also need to be sure that your hand will hold up if you hit. > > I'll bet my draws if I know I can attain at least a couple of the following objective (in no > particular order of importance): > > 1. Free card > 2. I will get enough callers that it will be for value and I know I'm drawing to nuts. > 3. I will win the pot right there. > 4. I my bet will cause my opponent to misread my hand if I hit. > > I am not a big fan of the value raise because I don't think the bet is going to meet enough of > the objective above. Also, it is no fun to watch everyone behind you fold and then the initial > bettor make it 3 to go. > > excellent points. i'd add the importance of position as well, since you want to be in late postion for the free card play. ----------------------------------------------------- "I prefer talking with old persons of the female sex who peddle family gossip; next, with the insane-and last, with very sensible people" -S. Kierkegaard | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Value Rasing?, modestmice, 22. Oct 2003 11:58 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| on 22. Oct 2003 11:46 Flatout_Mainiac wrote: > Correct me if I'm wrong but to value bet a draw you need at least 2 others to come with you. > You also need to be sure that your hand will hold up if you hit. > > I'll bet my draws if I know I can attain at least a couple of the following objective (in no > particular order of importance): > > 1. Free card > 2. I will get enough callers that it will be for value and I know I'm drawing to nuts. > 3. I will win the pot right there. > 4. I my bet will cause my opponent to misread my hand if I hit. > > I am not a big fan of the value raise because I don't think the bet is going to meet enough of > the objective above. Also, it is no fun to watch everyone behind you fold and then the initial > bettor make it 3 to go. > > excellent points. i'd add the importance of position as well, since you want to be in late postion for the free card play. ----------------------------------------------------- "I prefer talking with old persons of the female sex who peddle family gossip; next, with the insane-and last, with very sensible people" -S. Kierkegaard | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Value Rasing?, Blue Sky, 22. Oct 2003 12:36 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| I just wanted to drop a note to modestmice. Its very hard to read and follow your posts b/c you always copy or "Quote" the post that your responding to. If you simply reply everyone wouldn't have to scrolle all around to try to follow your thought process...I don't know if any one else feels the same way but I get lost trying to read threads you have posted in. This is not meant as critizism but simply a suggestion. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Value Rasing?, modestmice, 22. Oct 2003 12:37 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| no prob! | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Value Rasing?, Table Captain, 24. Oct 2003 11:20 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| i agree and will stop writing my own post on that subject. no rudeness intended modestmice | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Value Rasing?, modestmice, 24. Oct 2003 11:22 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| yeah, its hard enuf to follow me as it is : ) | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Value Rasing?, shorn, 22. Oct 2003 12:10 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| This is best done when on the button and there has been a bet and a few callers. Not only do you get more $$ in the pot for when you hit, but you may get the free card as modest points out. To do it in MP with three potential callers behind you is marginal IMO, although it did buy him the button which can be an advantage. The only time I could think when it might be good to value raise your draw is when you have an open ender or 4-flush with two overcards. The extra outs might make it worthwhile to limit the field if you can so that if only 1 of your overcards comes, you still win the pot. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Value Rasing?, Bart Mann, 23. Oct 2003 09:14 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| Plus, I would guess--and I'm asking here, shorn--that a value raise is best attempted before the Turn, because the extra bet for the callers is 1/2 as expensive as it would be post-Turn. In theory, a Value Raise is used to make the pot bigger and not to drive people out (I believe). Psychology dictates that you'll get more callers when the bet is small than you will after the Turn, when the bet is 2x. Am I on the right track here? | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Value Rasing?, modestmice, 23. Oct 2003 09:52 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| well i agree with that | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Value Rasing?, shorn, 23. Oct 2003 10:43 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| Bart- I would agree with that. Basically you are raising not only because you have the chance to draw to a big hand, but alos becuase that raise might get you the free turn card. I do not suggest raising the turn on a draw and nothing else because that is where a lot of players wait to raise with their good hands, so there is little semi-bluff value to it and it costs a lot of $$ to get to the river. Steve | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Value Rasing?, Blue Sky, 22. Oct 2003 13:30 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| I find it hard to believe that some of you believe that calling with draws is the best way to play these hands...let me clear up this issue....RAISE WITH YOUR DRAWS! Now there are of course some issues to keep in mind such as position (and I'm not talking early vs late but your position vs. the original bettor,) the table's style of play (loose vs. tight,) number of players in the hand, and of course are you drawing for the stone cold nuts or are you drawing to the possible 5th best hand? In general you are not going to get your card everytime and your going to lose money on the hands you miss but the times you hit your hand you are going to get paid off with such a bigger pot that its absoultely worth it. Many of you are correct that most players are smart enough not to call two or three bets cold so you want to raise when there are players sandwhiched between you and the original bettor who will only be calling one bet per turn to act but hopefully many bets over the course of the action. With all of that having been said you want to raise and re-raise your draws on the flop and normally go into call down mode on the turn card. If you start raising your draws your going to increase the size of your wins dramatically. For further info on the subject, check out the draw sections in HFAP by S&M or Winning Low Limit Hold'em by Lee Jones. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Value Rasing?, Blade, 22. Oct 2003 20:08 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| I think you are misunderstanding LJ. Let's do some math You have A7d and flop comes 2d, jd, ks You have a one in 3 chance to make you flush. with 4 callers to you. You raise, your 1 bet puts in 4 others after 100 times you have put in 100bets your raise put in 400bets you win 33 times which = (400)*.33 = 132 -100(your bets) = 32 profit (value created by raise) Same situation with 2 callers you raise, your bet puts in 2 others after 100 times you put in 100 bets your raise put in 200bets you win 33 times which = (200)*.33 = 66 - 100(your bets) = 34 lose (value lost with raise) I may be missing something but it seems pretty clear to me that the only time raising creates value is when you expect to make actual profit. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Value Rasing?, Blue Sky, 23. Oct 2003 09:54 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| Blade, I had 2 secs. and clicked here but don't have time to respond right now...I will as soon as I get a few minutes and we can clear this up ... one way or another. Blue Sky. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Value Rasing?, Bart Mann, 23. Oct 2003 10:43 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| Makes sense to me, Blue. And given that the odds of you making your flush are 1 in 2.58 (slightly better than 1 in 3), the conclusion appears to be that a value raise is a positive expectation play when you expect 3+ callers, and a negative expectation play when you expect 2 callers or less. Right? Wrong? Close? | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Value Rasing?, PairTheBoard, 23. Oct 2003 11:39 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| If you have one chance in 3 and your bet gets two callers then you are getting paid off 2-1 on a 2-1 shot. ie. it's a break even bet. Blade's math is abysmal. sorry Blade. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Value Rasing?, Blade, 23. Oct 2003 11:52 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| I just recalculated everything again and got the same results so please show me where I went wrong. I estimated the flush draw odds so those very well may be wrong. My only point was that you should be getting a higher return on your raise with draws than the odds of making your hand | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Value Rasing?, Schuster, 23. Oct 2003 12:05 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| The problem is that you aren't including your own bets as part of the pot won. You certainly get your own bets back when you win, right? Your first example should be: You win 33 times: .33 * 500 - 100 = 165 - 100 = 65 bets profit. The second example should be: .33 * 300 - 100 = 99 - 100 = -1 (Rounding error if you assume you win 1 in 3) It makes sense, you're getting paid 2 to 1 on a 2 to 1 shot, right? Also, a flush draw is a little better than 2 to 1, so if you raise 2 callers, you are making a small amount of profit. Lee | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Value Rasing?, Blade, 23. Oct 2003 12:09 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| I wasn't sure about including my own because those don't really represent additional profit over what you would get by just calling. If you didn't raise you would still have that money. Like I said my odds for the flush were just an example for this post, not meant to be the actual odds. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Value Rasing?, PairTheBoard, 23. Oct 2003 12:06 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| Furthermore, the probability of hitting the flush on either the turn or the river is EXACTLY 33.012%. There should be no confusion or arguement about this. That's almost exactly 1 chance in 3. Furthermore, the expected value for the bets on the flop depend on what you will have to pay to see the river if you miss on the turn, and how many callers there are likely to be for that turn bet. Worst case scenario would go like this. You call a bet on the flop with two other callers. Your getting 2-1 on a 2-1 shot so the call has break even expectation? Wrong. You will miss the turn 80.85% of the time. Suppose when you miss it gets bet to you and you go heads up. Let's say this is a 10-20 game. That means the overall play costs you on average $10 + 80.85%($20) = $26 and your guaranteed payoff is $10+$10 + $16. Ie. you are investing $26 to win $36. You are not getting the 2-1 odds on the flop bets that you think you are. However, suppose in this same situation your raise buys a free card on the turn. Not having to pay extra on the turn makes your call of the original flop bet a break even play as it will pay off 2-1 on a 2-1 shot, and also makes the raise a break even play as it too gets paid off 2-1 as a 2-1 shot. If your raise on the flop gets called by two players and it buys you a free card on the turn then it transforms the flop call from a negative expectation call as shown above - getting paid $36-$26 on a 2-1 shot - into a couple of break even bets. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Value Rasing?, Blade, 23. Oct 2003 12:11 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| I agree the chance of getting a free card is a very good reason to raise, I was only looking at one specific reason for raising. In a actual game all of those factors should be considered. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Value Rasing?, PairTheBoard, 23. Oct 2003 12:16 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| Correction: The probability of hitting the flush on the turn or the river is 33.21%. As I said before, almost exactly 1 chance in 3. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Value Rasing?, Bart Mann, 23. Oct 2003 12:34 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| According to the Mike Caro University odds tables, if you hold two diamonds in your hand and there are two in the flop, the probability that the final strength of your hand will be a flush is 34.97%. In other words, you will hit the flush 1 in 2.86 times. In addition, 3.3% of the time the Turn AND the River will be diamonds. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Value Rasing?, modestmice, 23. Oct 2003 12:36 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| i love watching math geeks argue ----------------------------------------------------- "I prefer talking with old persons of the female sex who peddle family gossip; next, with the insane-and last, with very sensible people" -S. Kierkegaard | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Value Rasing?, Bart Mann, 23. Oct 2003 12:45 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| I wasn't trying to jump in the middle here--I just figured maybe I could speed things along a bit. It's much easier to look it up than it is to try and grind it out on paper . . . | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Value Rasing?, mkpoker, 23. Oct 2003 12:58 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| There is only one hard-and-fast rule about raising on a draw. The answer is: "It depends." Specifically, it depends on, the 1) number of opponents you face; 2) the likelihood that they will fold if you bet; 3) the likelihood that they will raise if you bet; and 4) the likelihood that your hand will be good, if you make your draw. Here's a few examples to illustrate: 1) You've hit the nut flush draw on the flop and have 4 opponents. The board is not paired. Based on your experience with these players, you're confident that they'll call to the end. What do you do? Without question, you bet/raise for VALUE. Here, you're getting 4:1 on any new money in the pot, far better than your odds of hitting the flush. 2) Same situation, but there's only 1 opponent. What do you do? You do NOT bet. Now, you're only getting 1:1 odds on new money in the pot, far worse than your odds of hitting the flush. If the pot odds justify, you check/call to the river. 3) Again, you're drawing the nut flush. You have two opponents that you know play weak-tight. They can be bluffed. It's bet to you. What do you do? You raise as a SEMI-BLUFF. You're hoping to take the pot down here, but if you're called its OK because you've still got good outs left. 4) Same table texture as above, but there are 6 opponents. It's bet to you. What do you do? You CALL, because a raise will drive volume out of the pot. You don't want to wind up heads up here. You want lots of callers to pay you off if you hit. 5) In the BB, you hold Q3s and get into an unraised pot with two super-tight opponents. You flop a flush draw with a board of TT9. You check, it's bet and raised to you. What do you do? You FOLD. Even if you hit your flush, you could lose, either to a higher flush or a full house. My point in presenting these examples is to illustrate that table texture, and your reads of your opponents, should be a crucial factor in determining how you play your draws. The odds are important, but they're not the only factor. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Value Rasing?, PairTheBoard, 23. Oct 2003 13:14 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| I stand corrected. The probability of NOT catching a diamond on the flop and turn is (38/47) * (37/46) = 65.13% . So you will catch 1 or more the rest of the time, 100% - 65.13% = 34.97%. In the above calculation I mistakenly used the factors (38/47)*(38/46). No wonder I couldn't get past the Candidate's degree. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: Value Rasing?, noiseboy, 23. Oct 2003 16:50 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| This can be a valid way to play draws in a big multiway pot, when you are drawing to the nuts and expect enough people to come with you. If the raiser is directly to your right, you usually don't want to pump it with the draw unless it's a short handed pot. It depends on the situation really, usually I like to raise around back with a good draw when there are several players already in for 1 bet. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| POKER FORUM HOME | POKER FORUM | LINK TO US | ARCHIVE | ONLINE POKER | Copyright 2002, United Poker Forum |
|
Getting Started |
UPF Tournaments |
Poker News, Views, Rules |
Poker Strategy & Psychology |
Money and Bankroll Poker Bonuses & Promotions | World Series of Poker (WSOP) | Play Online Poker | Poker Odds & Statistics | Tournament Poker | Poker Books, Videos & Learning Tools Looking for a Poker Game | Poker Bad Beats | Not Quite Poker | Quizzes and Polls | Forum Suggestions & Bugs |
|
|
|
|
Interesting Links: Online Poker | Free Poker Games | United Poker Network |
|