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Server Time: 10/11/2008 12:51:27 AM PACIFIC |
 Bet the river w/ 4-flush on Board?, mkpoker, 20. Oct 2003 19:41 | ||
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| I've been working to fix a leak in my game by betting the river with far greater frequency. On this hand, I just checked. The right play? You tell me. We're at 3/6 HE online. A wonderfully loose-passive table where the cards had been running my way. In MP, I'm dealt Ah2h. One fold to an EP raiser. He was a very "by the book" player and I was sure he had AK, AQ or a high pair. I called (because the table had been passive, I anticipated multiple callers behind me. I know it was a marginal call...) However, only the button called and we take the flop 3-handed. Flop is 4c5d3d, giving me the wheel straight, but putting a dangerous flush draw on the board. The EP raiser bets. I'm 100% sure I'm ahead. I think about calling to keep the button in, but I'd rather get position (and who knows, button could still outdraw me). So I raise, button folds, ep raiser calls. Turn is 8d, completing the flush draw...not what I had hoped to see. EP checks. Could be a trap? Possible, but doubtful. I bet, he calls. River is 7d, perhaps the worst card in the deck for me. Now, I'm beaten by any diamond or any 6. I can't believe he's holding a six, but he could easily have a single high D. Again, he checks. I can hear Barry T's voice...He's saying "Bet the River!" But I decide against it. The reason: at this point, I'm quite sure he's got a high pair. If he doesn't have a diamond, he'll likely throw his hand away. That board [3d5d7d8d4c] is about as scary as it gets if you've only got an overpair. And if he does have a high diamond, he'll certainly call or raise. I check. He shows KsKh and my straight holds up. | ||
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| Re: Bet the river w/ 4-flush on Board?, Schuster, 20. Oct 2003 21:32 | ||
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| This is a pretty good spot to check as most of the time you get called, you will be beaten. The "bet the river" mantra is good, but it does not apply all the time. You should not live by hard and fast rules, just guidelines, and you should be able to recognize when you should deviate from those guidelnes. Your postflop play was exactly how I would have done it. However, I do not agree with the preflop call at all. Even if you do anticipate volume, A2s needs to see the flop cheaply. If it were A8s, it may be a different story because you may flop a top pair of 8's, but a deuce? You need to hit 2 pair or better to win here, most likely, because just pairing a deuce will not be good enough. I probably would have mucked the hand before the flop. Lee | ||
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| Re: Bet the river w/ 4-flush on Board?, Blade, 20. Oct 2003 21:36 | ||
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| Agree w/ above. Like check......HATE the call. Simple as that Your reasoning is marginal with no raise but with one, I don't like it all. | ||
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| Re: Bet the river w/ 4-flush on Board?, mkpoker, 20. Oct 2003 22:39 | ||
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| Lee, I respect your opinion very much and want to push back on a couple of your points comparing A8s vs. A2s. I agree with you that, generally, you need need to flop 2 pair or better with A2s (including flush draws, of course) to feel confident in your hand in a pot that's raised pre-flop by a "by the book " player. You're also right that there's a slight (2-3%ish) chance that an 8 will flop AND it will be the highest card on the board, giving you a playable hand with just top pair if you hold A8s. (I think you and I agree that if the flop comes something like KQ8, you really can't continue under most circumstances, since one of the other callers is almost certain to hold one of more of these cards in the "playing zone.") But even with an 8 as top pair, you can't feel too confident, given the risk of overpairs from the pre-flop raiser. But, you're not considering the possibility of flopping a straight or a gutshot draw with the A2s, or some combination of a straight and flush draw (like a gutshot draw with a backdoor flush draw), that might make the hand playable for another small bet on the flop. I guess what I'm saying is that while A8s has some advantages over A2s (namely top pair potential), A2s also has advantages over A8s (straight potential). I'd agree the A8 advantages outweigh the A2 advantages, but I think it's a very marginal difference. When deciding to call pre-flop in a raised pot (when either A8 or A2 are nearly certain to be behind pre-flop), I don't think there's much difference between the two hands. That said, I admit that my pre-flop call was marginal and was made in the (mistaken) assumption that I'd have multiple callers behind me, who'd give me the right odds for a draw. That fact alone is a pretty compellng reason to only play Axs in late position, where you don't need to guess how many callers you'll get--you can just count how many have already acted. | ||
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| Re: Bet the river w/ 4-flush on Board?, Palinya, 21. Oct 2003 08:39 | ||
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| According to Ken Warren's book "Texas Hold'em Poker" computer analysis shows that the straight potential of A2s will actually win more hands than A8s but it is a marginal advantage and with both hands all you have is a dominated hand that belongs in the muck | ||
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| Re: Bet the river w/ 4-flush on Board?, Snorbolus, 21. Oct 2003 10:51 | ||
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| Making the best hand is not the only consideration. You need to be able to bet it too. Most times it's the flush that you want with either A2s or A8s. In this paticular hand MK flopped a made straight, not the nuts, but he had good reason to believe the nut straight wasn't out there. If he had only flopped a straight draw it would have been a gutshot to not even the nut straight. Not much to tip balance of a pre-flop fold into a call. For what it's worth, I think that he played the hand well. Snorbolus on 21. Oct 2003 08:39 Palinya wrote: > According to Ken Warren's book "Texas Hold'em Poker" computer analysis shows that the straight > potential of A2s will actually win more hands than A8s but it is a marginal advantage and with > both hands all you have is a dominated hand that belongs in the muck | ||
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| Re: Bet the river w/ 4-flush on Board?, Schuster, 21. Oct 2003 12:31 | ||
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| Maybe you're right, mk. My original thoughts were that since you were the first one to call the raise, you might not get the volume you anticipate, and you'd be stuck with a heads up or 3 way pot. Can't count your cold calling chickens before they hatch, eh? In the shorthanded situation, If you hit an 8, it doesn't have to be top pair to play it aggresively. If the flop were 6-8-T and I was heads up or 3 way in the pot, I'd probably play my hand pretty strong in most situations. If you hold the A2 and flop a 6-2-T, your holding is just that much weaker. Even a jack high flop doesn't figure to touch an early raiser unless it also gives him a gutshot to broadway. I guess after thinking about it more, it probably doesn't make that much of a difference. I still don't like the call. Even if you do get volume, paying 2 bets instead of 1 is a hinderance to the implied odds you want to get. Good post mk. Lee | ||
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| Re: Bet the river w/ 4-flush on Board?, KJo, 20. Oct 2003 22:40 | ||
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| This is actually the perfect time to check the river, since he either has a high pair or a high flush, and one of those will beat you and you really don't want to be raised. Since you have straight, it makes it OK to check since if he beats you you can save a bet, and if all he has is a high pair he will probably fold. If you were the one with the high pair (or worse) this would be a great time to bluff. I've found this bluff to work far more often than it doesn't. But with the straight, I agree with the check since he likely won't call you with anything but a flush. Eli on 20. Oct 2003 19:41 mkpoker wrote: > I've been working to fix a leak in my game by betting the river with far greater > frequency. On this hand, I just checked. The right play? You tell me. We're > at 3/6 HE online. A wonderfully loose-passive table where the cards had been > running my way. > > In MP, I'm dealt Ah2h. One fold to an EP raiser. He was a very "by the book" > player and I was sure he had AK, AQ or a high pair. I called (because the table > had been passive, I anticipated multiple callers behind me. I know it was a > marginal call...) However, only the button called and we take the flop > 3-handed. > > Flop is 4c5d3d, giving me the wheel straight, but putting a dangerous flush > draw on the board. The EP raiser bets. I'm 100% sure I'm ahead. I think about > calling to keep the button in, but I'd rather get position (and who knows, > button could still outdraw me). So I raise, button folds, ep raiser calls. > > Turn is 8d, completing the flush draw...not what I had hoped to see. EP > checks. Could be a trap? Possible, but doubtful. I bet, he calls. > > River is 7d, perhaps the worst card in the deck for me. Now, I'm beaten by any > diamond or any 6. I can't believe he's holding a six, but he could easily have > a single high D. Again, he checks. > > I can hear Barry T's voice...He's saying "Bet the River!" But I decide against > it. The reason: at this point, I'm quite sure he's got a high pair. If he > doesn't have a diamond, he'll likely throw his hand away. That board > [3d5d7d8d4c] is about as scary as it gets if you've only got an overpair. And > if he does have a high diamond, he'll certainly call or raise. > > I check. He shows KsKh and my straight holds up. | ||
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| Re: Bet the river w/ 4-flush on Board?, Snorbolus, 21. Oct 2003 12:17 | ||
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| Here are some post-it note calculations for your consideration: MK holds Ah2h If we can accurately put EP raiser on: AA (3 possibilities), KK (6), QQ (6), JJ (6), AKs (3), AKo (9), AQs (3); that makes 36 possible holdings. EP raiser only check/called the turn, after the 3rd diamond hit. This suggests that he does not hold 2 diamonds. So, when the 4th diamond hits on the river, it is holdings with exactly one diamond that we fear. These are: AdAx (2), KdKx (3), QdQx (3), JdJx (3), AdKx (3), AxKd (2); making 16 likely holdings that beat us. So, if our reads are accurate, 44% of the time MK is behind on the river and 56% he is ahead. Given that our reads may not be accurate and that many of those times MK is ahead on the river EP raiser is unlikely to make a crying call; it seems to me that checking behind is a clear best choice in this spot. Snorbolus on 20. Oct 2003 19:41 mkpoker wrote: > I've been working to fix a leak in my game by betting the river with far greater > frequency. On this hand, I just checked. The right play? You tell me. We're > at 3/6 HE online. A wonderfully loose-passive table where the cards had been > running my way. > > In MP, I'm dealt Ah2h. One fold to an EP raiser. He was a very "by the book" > player and I was sure he had AK, AQ or a high pair. I called (because the table > had been passive, I anticipated multiple callers behind me. I know it was a > marginal call...) However, only the button called and we take the flop > 3-handed. > > Flop is 4c5d3d, giving me the wheel straight, but putting a dangerous flush > draw on the board. The EP raiser bets. I'm 100% sure I'm ahead. I think about > calling to keep the button in, but I'd rather get position (and who knows, > button could still outdraw me). So I raise, button folds, ep raiser calls. > > Turn is 8d, completing the flush draw...not what I had hoped to see. EP > checks. Could be a trap? Possible, but doubtful. I bet, he calls. > > River is 7d, perhaps the worst card in the deck for me. Now, I'm beaten by any > diamond or any 6. I can't believe he's holding a six, but he could easily have > a single high D. Again, he checks. > > I can hear Barry T's voice...He's saying "Bet the River!" But I decide against > it. The reason: at this point, I'm quite sure he's got a high pair. If he > doesn't have a diamond, he'll likely throw his hand away. That board > [3d5d7d8d4c] is about as scary as it gets if you've only got an overpair. And > if he does have a high diamond, he'll certainly call or raise. > > I check. He shows KsKh and my straight holds up. | ||
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