|
||
|
||
|
Server Time: 2/13/2012 3:27:42 AM PACIFIC |
 JJ on the button, modestmice, 15. Oct 2003 20:34 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| I posted this hand a few years ago on twoplustwo but wanted to get the upf treatment. its a superloose 3-6 game in calif, their are a few calling stations, a few weak loose and a couple good aggresive tight. im on the button with JJ. 8 limpers, gets to me i raise, BB re raises, gets back to me capped. hmmm, ok, action table! now i know i need a super flop to win this thing. flop comes Q-10-3. hmm not super bad, but for sure behind, especially now that the action is to me with the pot capped. and we lost a few players (the tighties) so 5 callers left. i call wondering if should. but i had been only playing a few months at this point, so not knowing pot odds etc, i just wing it. the turn is a 9. flurry of betting again as it is capped to me on the button again. godamn it godamn it im thinking. someone has a made str? trips? wtf. i call time. i fold thinkin i cant beat 5 callers in a capped pot with a open ended 1 card str draw. the river is a K, just to taunt me. no one re raises the river, just 1 single bet this time. they flip over 9-3o for two pair, A-Q for 1 pair, K-J for a pair of K. 9-3 dragged the biggest 3-6 pot i had seen in my months playing. 300+ in a 3-6 game, of course it doesnt matter, it only matters that it made me think a lot about what i should have done and what the correct play should have been without regard to winning or not. it was the first time i started to think about the "correct" play and not just about winning a monster pot. thank you in advance for your opinion. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: JJ on the button, 4 POKER, 15. Oct 2003 20:57 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| Hi, Wow! With eight players limping in already in a pretty loose and somewhat aggresive game.....I would have just called in that spot. When the BB raises the hand pre-flop, I would just call as well. And with there being bets and raises to me on the flop?.......I would've thrown the two Jacks in the muck. Even if you hit your set on the turn, a good % of the time you're going to have to improve it again because the Jack could very well give someone a straight. (and who's to say that someone didn't flop a set of Queens?)......I don't like that flop for you with all those players in there, and I think you definitely overplayed it coming in, 'and' on the flop. (just my opinion). 4P- | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: JJ on the button, modestmice, 15. Oct 2003 21:18 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| on 15. Oct 2003 20:57 4 POKER wrote: > Hi, > > Wow! With eight players limping in already in a pretty loose and somewhat aggresive > game.....I would have just called in that spot. When the BB raises the hand > pre-flop, I would just call as well. And with there being bets and raises to me on > the flop?.......I would've thrown the two Jacks in the muck. Even if you hit your > set on the turn, a good % of the time you're going to have to improve it again > because the Jack could very well give someone a straight. (and who's to say that > someone didn't flop a set of Queens?)......I don't like that flop for you with all > those players in there, and I think you definitely overplayed it coming in, 'and' on > the flop. > > (just my opinion). > > > 4P- thanks steve. i didnt think this was all that clear of an action on the turn, and you support that conclusion. you are correct about the flop. even though i was new, i had logged 300 hours in 3-6 in my first few months and i knew i would be in trouble with a J with the str out there(and as it turned out a J would have giving someone the nut str) so it was just the pot size and action that swept me into calling the flop. my only real plan is to get runner runner str cards?!? GEEZ, lol. the turn fold made no sense to me, because i called the flop, a questionable action! being new, i thought i was making a "big" laydown. it is questionable whether i should have folded on the turn, hence this post. if there are math geeks out there, please reply with all the math crap for this hand. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: JJ on the button, 4 POKER, 15. Oct 2003 21:24 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| ROTFLMAO! My name isn't "Steve"! But perhaps Steve (who is shorn) will give you his opinion, too! 4P- | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: JJ on the button, modestmice, 15. Oct 2003 21:25 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| on 15. Oct 2003 21:24 4 POKER wrote: > ROTFLMAO! My name isn't "Steve"! But perhaps Steve (who is shorn) will give you his opinion, > too! > > > 4P- lol, sorry man. better than betty "Some of the truly weakest players are those who think they know it all. Know-it-all-ism is one of the most exploitable weaknesses a player can have." --Steve Badger | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: JJ on the button, modestmice, 15. Oct 2003 21:26 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| on 15. Oct 2003 21:25 modestmice wrote: > on 15. Oct 2003 21:24 4 POKER wrote: > > ROTFLMAO! My name isn't "Steve"! But perhaps Steve (who is shorn) will give you his opinion, > > too! > > > > > > 4P- he already did, and i didnt like it, lol. thats why i did this post. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: JJ on the button, 4 POKER, 15. Oct 2003 21:41 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| on 15. Oct 2003 21:26 modestmice wrote: > on 15. Oct 2003 21:25 modestmice wrote: > > on 15. Oct 2003 21:24 4 POKER wrote: > > > ROTFLMAO! My name isn't "Steve"! But perhaps Steve (who is shorn) will give you his opinion, > > > too! > > > > > > > > > 4P- > > he already did, and i didnt like it, lol. thats why i did this post. Hey modestmice, I think you have shorn confused with somebody else. He will definitely be alot of help to you, especially if you're interested in the mathematics. 4P- (Dave) | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: JJ on the button, shorn, 16. Oct 2003 06:02 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| Thanks Dave. I think he meant that he didn't like the fact that I disagreed with his calling on the flop or turn for that matter. This morning I have posted the mathematical "why not" in another thread (I think it is the "Heresy" thread). Also, he had posted on 2+2 before and everyone who responded told him he should call. | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: JJ on the button, modestmice, 16. Oct 2003 16:27 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| on 16. Oct 2003 06:02 shorn wrote: > Thanks Dave. I think he meant that he didn't like the fact that I disagreed with his calling on the flop or turn > for that matter. This morning I have posted the mathematical "why not" in another thread (I think it is the > "Heresy" thread). Also, he had posted on 2+2 before and everyone who responded told him he should call. naw, my above post explains my feelings. ------------------------------------------------------------- "I prefer talking with old persons of the female sex who peddle family gossip; next, with the insane-and last, with very sensible people" -S. Kierkegaard | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: JJ on the button, modestmice, 16. Oct 2003 16:29 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| on 16. Oct 2003 16:27 modestmice wrote: thanks for the treatment , shorn... > on 16. Oct 2003 06:02 shorn wrote: It does change the scenario, but not much. Even with QTX flop, you still may need two cards to win (as someone is likely holding QQ or AK so a single J does you no good). In effect, with that much action you have to assume that someone holds AK, so you are really drawing to a 9/8 or 9/K turn/river. So, here is the math for that: 4/47 * 8/46 = .75% or 1.5% chance of hitting your runner runner. So, that translates into needing roughly 50-1 on 4 bets cold or 200 small bets in the pot on the flop. That's not possible even if all 10 players were in for 4 pre-flop and 4 on the flop (80). Now, you could argue that there are other turn river combinations that make you a winner (J/J or J/X or J/T), but only J/J GUARANTEES you a win here. You have to at least consider someone for QQ with capped preflop and post flop, so two of the three boat/quad scenarios lose you the pot. Also, someone could be in there with AJ, so you could lose to the higher str8 if the K/9 comes. Finally, what is the likelyhood that you will not have to call any bets on the turn to continue? With all that action, there is a 0% chance of that. So, your effective odds are most likely for calling 6 BIG bets to get there (4 small on the flop and 4 big on the turn). I guess the point is with two cards in the playing zone that are higher than yours and all that action going on, there is such a small chance that (1) you are ahead right now and/or (2) you will win that you must consider this a -EV play. I know that the stars were aligned and in the actual hand the runner runner came. BUT, that is completely irrelevant. In fact, if you had called all of those bets and raked in that pot, you have actually LOST in long-term expectation space. I hope this helps. Steve | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: JJ on the button, modestmice, 16. Oct 2003 16:53 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| these were my thoughts, shorn..... thanks XXXXX. i didnt think this was all that clear of an action on the turn, and you support that conclusion. you are correct about the flop. even though i was new, i had logged 300 hours in 3-6 in my first few months and i knew i would be in trouble with a J with the str out there(and as it turned out a J would have giving someone the nut str) so it was just the pot size and action that swept me into calling the flop. my only real plan is to get runner runner str cards?!? GEEZ, lol. the turn fold made no sense to me, because i called the flop, a questionable action! being new, i thought i was making a "big" laydown. it is questionable whether i should have folded on the turn, hence this post. if there are math geeks out there, please reply with all the math crap for this hand. on 16. Oct 2003 06:02 shorn wrote: > Thanks Dave. I think he meant that he didn't like the fact that I disagreed with his calling on the flop or turn > for that matter. This morning I have posted the mathematical "why not" in another thread (I think it is the > "Heresy" thread). Also, he had posted on 2+2 before and everyone who responded told him he should call. -------------------------------------------------------------"I prefer talking with old persons of the female sex who peddle family gossip; next, with the insane-and last, with very sensible people" -S. Kierkegaard | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: JJ on the button, gary ford, 15. Oct 2003 21:28 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| you learn fast--- i see you know what ROTFLMAO MEANS--how about ROTFLMFAO? g | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: JJ on the button, modestmice, 15. Oct 2003 21:33 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| on 15. Oct 2003 21:28 gary ford wrote: > you learn fast--- i see you know what ROTFLMAO MEANS--how about ROTFLMFAO? > > g enquiring fried minds want to know | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: JJ on the button, 4 POKER, 15. Oct 2003 21:43 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| Keep it clean Gary...........! | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: JJ on the button, WilliamS, 17. Oct 2003 05:34 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| Mouse, On the turn, the player holding K J made the nut straight. Later on you say he had a pair of Ks (little confused here). So in essence you would have been drawing to 2 Ks left in the deck for 1/2 the pot. Or am I missing something; good fold. Will | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| Re: JJ on the button, modestmice, 17. Oct 2003 11:08 | ||
| View ( Message | Thread ) | Return to Thread List | |
| i cant remember, it was a long time ago. but your probably right about the fold part. i thought it was a good fold, then i didnt think it was then people told me it wasnt a good fold and now i think i was again and i shouldnt have even played past the flop and .... on 17. Oct 2003 05:34 WilliamS wrote: > Mouse, > On the turn, the player holding K J made the nut straight. Later on you say he had > a pair of Ks (little confused here). So in essence you would have been drawing to 2 > Ks left in the deck for 1/2 the pot. > > Or am I missing something; good fold. > > Will | ||
| Return to Thread List | ||
| POKER FORUM HOME | POKER FORUM | LINK TO US | ARCHIVE | ONLINE POKER | Copyright 2002, United Poker Forum |
|
Getting Started |
UPF Tournaments |
Poker News, Views, Rules |
Poker Strategy & Psychology |
Money and Bankroll Poker Bonuses & Promotions | World Series of Poker (WSOP) | Play Online Poker | Poker Odds & Statistics | Tournament Poker | Poker Books, Videos & Learning Tools Looking for a Poker Game | Poker Bad Beats | Not Quite Poker | Quizzes and Polls | Forum Suggestions & Bugs |
|
|
|
|
Interesting Links: Online Poker | Free Poker Games | United Poker Network | Find Vancouver Businesses |
|