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Server Time: 12/2/2008 12:10:50 AM PACIFIC |
 Fun One A Few Nights Ago . . ., Bart Mann, 15. Oct 2003 14:54 | ||
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| I had a fun hand a few nights back that I thought I would share with the group. NLHE at UB, I get 5s6s in the BB with a table full of callers. I check. Flop comes 4s7sKh. I now have an open-ended straight flush draw with what I calculated at the time to be 17 outs (nine spades, four 3s and four 8s) and two more cards coming. Quick math told me I had around a 70% chance to make something of this (in retrospect I believe it is closer to 73%). Player in EP pushes all in with more than my stack, so I have a legitimate chance to double-up here. Everyone else folds to me. What would you do? I do the math one more time, then call the bet. Next card is 10s, and the River is 8h. I end up with a straight AND a flush, to EP's set of Kings. Thirty seconds later I see a chat message from the EP player to the group: "I can't f***ing believe this idiot called me with 56." My only reply to him was, "I had 17 outs. And two cards to get one." After a few more mucks he left the table. Wish they all worked out like that. | ||
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| Re: Fun One A Few Nights Ago . . ., DallasPokerFan, 15. Oct 2003 14:58 | ||
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| Good for you! Athough, not to be technical, you had 15 outs to a straight or flush, not 17. * 9 spades, including 3s and 8s * 3 remaining treys * 3 remaining eights But either way, you made the right decision, IMHO. | ||
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| Re: Fun One A Few Nights Ago . . ., Candide, 15. Oct 2003 15:00 | ||
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| Quick note, to hit a str8 or flush, you had 15 outs...one of each of your straight cards is counted in the 9 cards for a flush. Also, the odds to hit it on one of the next two cards is 54.1 (.85 to 1). 17 outs would be 59.8 (.67 to 1). | ||
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| Re: Fun One A Few Nights Ago . . ., Boftx, 15. Oct 2003 16:53 | ||
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| And why bother to educate the guy so he can use it against you some time? | ||
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| Re: Fun One A Few Nights Ago . . ., modestmice, 15. Oct 2003 21:22 | ||
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| only thing i would mentionis you will not have anywhere near the nuts for the flush. ive been in that same spot, hit the flush only, and lose to higher flush. but you are a heavy favorite to win this hand. on 15. Oct 2003 14:54 Bart Mann wrote: > I had a fun hand a few nights back that I thought I would share with the group. > NLHE at UB, I get 5s6s in the BB with a table full of callers. I check. Flop > comes 4s7sKh. I now have an open-ended straight flush draw with what I > calculated at the time to be 17 outs (nine spades, four 3s and four 8s) and two > more cards coming. Quick math told me I had around a 70% chance to make > something of this (in retrospect I believe it is closer to 73%). Player in EP > pushes all in with more than my stack, so I have a legitimate chance to > double-up here. Everyone else folds to me. What would you do? > > I do the math one more time, then call the bet. Next card is 10s, and the > River is 8h. I end up with a straight AND a flush, to EP's set of Kings. > > Thirty seconds later I see a chat message from the EP player to the group: "I > can't f***ing believe this idiot called me with 56." My only reply to him was, > "I had 17 outs. And two cards to get one." After a few more mucks he left the > table. > > Wish they all worked out like that. "Some of the truly weakest players are those who think they know it all. Know-it-all-ism is one of the most exploitable weaknesses a player can have." --Steve Badger | ||
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| Re: Fun One A Few Nights Ago . . ., shorn, 16. Oct 2003 13:28 | ||
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| Modest- That may be true but if the all-in player had a flush draw, he likely would not have pushed all-in. So, I think that Bart can safely assume that if the flush card comes (and only 1 flush card, not two b/c AKo with the Ace of spades is also possible) his hand will be good. When i see a player make a bet like this with two flush cards out, it tells me he is protecting top/top, an overpair, or a set. Steve | ||
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| Re: Fun One A Few Nights Ago . . ., Brian Starr, 23. Oct 2003 16:27 | ||
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| Bart- You certainly made the right call with the straight flush draw, as you had 15 outs and a 54.1 % chance of hitting one. However, that is assuming that the straight or flush is good if you hit it, which is normally a safe assumption in that situation. However, since he did have a set he actually had a 33.4% chance of improving to a full house or quads. So you were an underdog to his set with two cards to come, but you made the right call because in that situation I would put him on two pair or AK or AA. | ||
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