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Server Time: 2/13/2012 3:15:48 PM PACIFIC |
 Calling with 5 outs, iceman5, 15. Oct 2003 09:36 | ||
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| Could someone explain the thought process and correct odds needed for deciding whether not to call with second pair high kicker? For example: You have A9 and the flop is K92. Assuming that an ace or 9 will usually win, how many callers would you normally need to call? Do you figure the odds based on hitting one of your 5 outs by the river or do you decide to call separately at each street? If you figure the odds to get there by the river it should be about 5-1 so I guess you could call if you have 4 other players? This comes up all the time and I usually dont try to chase..can someone help with their thoughts? | ||
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| Re: Calling with 5 outs, mkpoker, 15. Oct 2003 10:07 | ||
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| You're missing the most important ingredient in this equation--the amount of money in the pot. With more money in the pot, you're more likely to be justified in chasing draws like 5-outers. Let's say you're playing 5/10 and there's $40 in the pot by the flop, in your hypothetical hand. You're bet into and need to consider whether or not to call. Your odds of making the hand BY THE RIVER are just over 21%, or about 5:1. You're getting 9:1 to call the flop bet, so it SEEMS like a good deal...but it's not. That's becuase you'll probably need to call a $10 bet if you miss on the turn. **So to draw until the river, you'll need to put up $15 to possibly win $60--that's 4:1, considerably less than your chances of making the hand (5:1). So in this case, you should fold.** BUT le'ts say there was some crazy pre-flop betting and there's already $100 in the pot by the flop. Then, you'd be putting up that same $15 to win $115. You'd have better than 7:1 pot odds and clear justification to call. There are a few other variables to consider: 1. You should also weigh the odds that BOTH you and your opponent will improve. In your example, that would happen if an A comes on the turn and a K on the river. 2. This example shows why buying a free card is often such a good play. If, instead of calling, you raised your opponent's flop bet, he might get jittery and only check to you on the turn instead of betting. Then you'd have put up only $10, instead of $15, to see two cards. However, if you're SURE your opponent will bet on the turn (or might re-reraise on the flop) the free-card raise doesn't make sense. The moral of the story is this: when calculating your chances of making a hand by the river, be sure to factor in the money you'll put it on BOTH the flop and the turn. Too often, players only think about that first bet and make ill-advised calls as a result. Hope this helps. | ||
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| Re: Calling with 5 outs, magnus, 15. Oct 2003 11:48 | ||
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| on 15. Oct 2003 10:07 mkpoker wrote: > You're missing the most important ingredient in this equation--the amount of money in > the pot. With more money in the pot, you're more likely to be justified in chasing > draws like 5-outers. > > Let's say you're playing 5/10 and there's $40 in the pot by the flop, in your > hypothetical hand. You're bet into and need to consider whether or not to call. > > Your odds of making the hand BY THE RIVER are just over 21%, or about 5:1. You're > getting 9:1 to call the flop bet, so it SEEMS like a good deal...but it's not. > That's becuase you'll probably need to call a $10 bet if you miss on the turn. **So > to draw until the river, you'll need to put up $15 to possibly win $60--that's 4:1, > considerably less than your chances of making the hand (5:1). So in this case, you > should fold.** Well, lets see if I understand pot odds correctly. Wouldn't the flop bet be a marginal call situation? With 5 outs (all clean) you have 42:5 odds of hitting one of your outs on the turn. This is 8.4:1, which is better than the pot odds of 9:1 so it should be a (marginal) call. Now, if you don't hit any or your outs on the turn, you probably have to fold to any bet.... I'm trying to evaluate the hand and possible odds on each street instead of thinking of what might happen on the river (keeps it simpler for me). This might mean that I make mistakes, but I'm still learning so I'll take a step at a time. Am I totally wrong here? -Magnus | ||
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| Re: Calling with 5 outs, iceman5, 15. Oct 2003 11:54 | ||
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| I realize that the amount of money in the pot is what you use to determine pot odds. Thats why I was asking how many callers you need. My main question was do you figure the odds individually at each street or figure the odds of making your hand by the river. You answered that so thank you. Thats the way Ive been playing, but a large percentage of the people I play with at lower limits will chase till the cows come home, so I was just getting a second opinion on whether I was playing corectly or playing scared. I sometimes do raise in that situation, but I assume it wouldnt be correct if your 2nd pair was too low, lets say a 5? Like you have A5 with a flop of J 5 2? | ||
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| Re: Calling with 5 outs, shorn, 15. Oct 2003 11:35 | ||
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| I like mkpoker's response, but I disagree in one respect. In most cases, I want the correct odds to draw to hit my hand ON THE NEXT CARD in the pot now before committing more $$. I find that calculating getting two cards to hit often leads to continuing to play a hand that I shouldn't. It isn't like we are talking about NL where your implied odds can be so great that it may be right to draw on the flop without getting proper odds because your opponent is deep in chips. This is limit play and therefore I want 8.5 bets in the pot to call with my 5 outer. If I miss on the turn card, then I re-evaluate and I want 8 to 1. However, I do agree that a raise may well be the best play for that board as it may get you the free card you need to hit. In most cases, if your hand is worth a call or close to worth a call, you should definitely consider raising as that has the added benefit of potentially getting a player to lay down a hand that you couldn't beat (A King in this case). | ||
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| Re: Calling with 5 outs, Jacks-and-Nines, 15. Oct 2003 13:26 | ||
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| 8.4:1? With 5 outs? That math seems off. Seems that was magnus's problem in determining if it was a borderline call. His math was 5 outs out of 42, should be 47. Making it roughly 10:1 | ||
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| Re: Calling with 5 outs, Blue Sky, 15. Oct 2003 14:47 | ||
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| J & N, Nice try but your not using the correct math, magnus was correct at 8.4:1. Quick calculation: 52 total cards - 5 known cards = 47 unknown cards. 47 unknown cards - 5 cards that help you (outs) = 42 cards that don't help. 42 don't help : 5 that do = 42:5 odds = 8.4:1 odds of hitting your hand In general, unless your very sure that you have an excellent read on your opponent I don't like this call at all. The only way I would play this is of course with a great read of the bettor's style and then raise to get a free turn card. | ||
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| Re: Calling with 5 outs, iceman5, 15. Oct 2003 15:44 | ||
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| on 15. Oct 2003 14:47 Blue Sky wrote: > J & N, > > Nice try but your not using the correct math, magnus was correct at 8.4:1. > > Quick calculation: > > 52 total cards - 5 known cards = 47 unknown cards. > 47 unknown cards - 5 cards that help you (outs) = 42 cards that don't help. > 42 don't help : 5 that do = 42:5 odds = 8.4:1 odds of hitting your hand > > In general, unless your very sure that you have an excellent read on your opponent I don't > like this call at all. The only way I would play this is of course with a great read of the > bettor's style and then raise to get a free turn card. So you're saying you wont play without at least top pair or a draw? | ||
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| Re: Calling with 5 outs, Blue Sky, 15. Oct 2003 17:05 | ||
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| Iceman5, I'm assumming your question was meant to be more sarcastic then anything else but I don't see how continuing on with the more then likely 2nd best hand is going to increase your chip stack. I bet the hell out of my draws and push top pair like its my last meal but I won't call with the chance of improving unless the odds are so favorible that your own grandma would dis-own you if you didn't call. | ||
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| Re: Calling with 5 outs, modestmice, 15. Oct 2003 17:24 | ||
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| on 15. Oct 2003 17:05 Blue Sky wrote: > Iceman5, > > I'm assumming your question was meant to be more sarcastic then anything else but I don't see how > continuing on with the more then likely 2nd best hand is going to increase your chip stack. > > I bet the hell out of my draws and push top pair like its my last meal but I won't call with the chance > of improving unless the odds are so favorible that your own grandma would dis-own you if you didn't > call. that is a very narrow and incorrect view imo. this is a valid discussion, and i dont know how your flippant comments add to it in any way. "Some of the truly weakest players are those who think they know it all. Know-it-all-ism is one of the most exploitable weaknesses a player can have." --Steve Badger | ||
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| Re: Calling with 5 outs, iceman5, 15. Oct 2003 17:32 | ||
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| No, actually I wasnt being sarcastic. I believe you said that you didnt like calling with second pair top kicker. I asked if you only played further with top pair or a draw. That is a legitimate question. I assume that you also wouldnt bet or call with overcards since you only have 6 outs (and they are surely not clean) so what else is there besides top pair or a draw? Also I would still like to hear someones opinion on what to do if reraised (after your raise to get a free card) | ||
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| Re: Calling with 5 outs, modestmice, 15. Oct 2003 17:41 | ||
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| on 15. Oct 2003 17:32 iceman5 wrote: > No, actually I wasnt being sarcastic. I believe you said that you didnt like calling with second pair top > kicker. I asked if you only played further with top pair or a draw. That is a legitimate question. I assume > that you also wouldnt bet or call with overcards since you only have 6 outs (and they are surely not clean) so > what else is there besides top pair or a draw? Also I would still like to hear someones opinion on what to do > if reraised (after your raise to get a free card) well the re-raise makes it sure you are at that point beat with your 2ndpair top kicker, but i would call the re raise and see the turn. if no help, its pack it up and go home time unless u have some kind of super read that this player will make a reraise bluff on a draw and/or with nothing (higherlimit) lower limit i think your gonna just have to get lucky to win this at this point since u are behind and he is probably not semi or bluffing. if i hit my kicker, he will most likely bet out the turn and i will then raise him. | ||
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| Re: Calling with 5 outs, mkpoker, 15. Oct 2003 21:51 | ||
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| Not only is Blue Sky's tone out-of-line, but also his reasoning is off. Betting (or raising) with middle pair or bottom pair and an overcard is a classic semi-bluff and can be a great play--if you're opponent is capable of laying down a decent hand. In Iceman's example (he holds A9 with a flop of K92), a semi-bluff-raise might cause a player with a weak king to lay it down, fearing you have a better king. As with all semi-bluffs, you're hoping to take the pot there, but if your opponent calls, it's OK because you still have good outs left. Many LLHE players won't fold top pair under any circumstances, so it's important to know your player before making this play. | ||
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| Re: Calling with 5 outs, modestmice, 15. Oct 2003 21:54 | ||
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| on 15. Oct 2003 21:51 mkpoker wrote: > Not only is Blue Sky's tone out-of-line, but also his reasoning is off. Betting (or raising) with middle pair > or bottom pair and an overcard is a classic semi-bluff and can be a great play--if you're opponent is capable > of laying down a decent hand. > > In Iceman's example (he holds A9 with a flop of K92), a semi-bluff-raise might cause a player with a weak > king to lay it down, fearing you have a better king. As with all semi-bluffs, you're hoping to take the pot > there, but if your opponent calls, it's OK because you still have good outs left. Many LLHE players won't > fold top pair under any circumstances, so it's important to know your player before making this play. totally. glad to know im not completely crazy or out of line | ||
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| Re: Calling with 5 outs, PairTheBoard, 15. Oct 2003 23:25 | ||
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| It's interesting that Blue Sky will not play on with second pair top kicker but will "bet the hell" out of his draws. As I mention in my post below, your second pair response to the bettor depends on the agressiveness level of the bettor. How do you respond to such a player. Whether he is the type who gets agressive with second or third pair and an overcard, or he is the type who always bets the hell out of his flush, straight, and gutshot-overcard draws there is only one solution that I can think of. You are simply forced to call him down with LESS than what is normally comfortable. A perfect example is second pair top kicker. I don't think it is profitable to "punish" him by turn-raises with such hands because he will sometimes actually have the goods as well as sometimes hit his draws. The combination makes turn-raises against him too dangerous. Of course we all would prefer betting. But against an overly agressive opponent it may be that just calling is the most agressive thing that can be done. You might call it, aggressive calling. | ||
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| Re: Calling with 5 outs, Bungus, 15. Oct 2003 23:13 | ||
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| I don't get this Sky, why would you subtract 5 from 47? It should be 5 divided by 47. Thats 10.6 | ||
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| Re: Calling with 5 outs, shorn, 16. Oct 2003 04:57 | ||
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| Bungus- The way to calculate your odds of hitting the draw is to divide the number of remaining cards in the deck that DON"T help you by the number of cards that DO help you. So, while you are correct that there are 47 cards reamining, you have to remember that only 42 don't help. Therefore, the ratio to look at is 42/5 which translates into 8.4 to 1. I hope this helps. Steve | ||
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| Re: Calling with 5 outs, Bungus, 16. Oct 2003 15:35 | ||
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| wait, I thought I had this figured out months ago. Now I'm confused. I'm saying the percentage of you making your set or two pair is 10.6% (5/47). Now steve's saying the odds of you making the same hand are 8.4:1 (42 evil cards : 5 most heavenly ones)both seem like valid methods, but oh wait nevermind, I just realized that to convert 8.4:1 you would add the "1" to 8.4, = 9.4. 1/9.4=.106 or 10.6%. duh. Ignore me | ||
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| Re: Calling with 5 outs, PairTheBoard, 16. Oct 2003 08:42 | ||
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| 5 divided by 47 is the probability of hitting your draw and is not 10.6 but 0.106 or 10.6%. That means you will hit your draw 10.6 times out of 100. This means the ODDS against hitting are 89.4 to 10.6 which reduces to 8.4 to 1. As shorn points out, the easier way to calculate odds against is to take the 42 cards against you divided by the 5 cards for you. You may be confused between probabilty and odds. For example the probabiltyof drawing a spade from a shuffled deck of 52 cards is 1 in 4. The odds against this draw are 3-1. | ||
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| Re: Calling with 5 outs, iceman5, 15. Oct 2003 13:27 | ||
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| Maybe in higher limits, but nobody that I play with in LL tables will lay down top pair. That doesnt mean raising isnt correct because it will usually get you a free card. That brings another question. If you do raise and are now reraised, you have to assume you are beat (and he may even have AK meaning 3 of your outs are dead) so should you just fold, or do some players in higher limits reraise with KT or KJ? Your odds just got worse, but if you fold he may keep reraising you in later hands. This doesnt happen in LL but what about medium and higher limits? | ||
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| Re: Calling with 5 outs, PairTheBoard, 15. Oct 2003 13:47 | ||
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| One more factor to consider. What is the chance that your hand is actually good at the moment? Elements going into this estimation are: How agressive is the bettor? Is he the type to bet second pair just in case no one has a King? How do the other players respond to his bet. If they just call, is it likely any of them has a King? imo, calling or raising in this situation can be similiar to the agressive move of betting second pair. In this case, your second pair has the best kicker. It depends on the record of agressiveness by the bettor. | ||
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