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Server Time: 9/6/2008 9:54:03 AM PACIFIC |
 Wilson analysis of QJo, Blade, 12. Oct 2003 13:52 | ||
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| I ran a series of 300,000 hand simulations with QJo and here are my findings. First as I stated each sim was 300,000 hands which is more than enough for a sample to be considered accurate. Second the player using QJo was the prior versions advisor. This is considered to be the most technically correct player ie by the book. However in just my play with Wilson the advisor tends to overplay some hands and is certainly not error free. In each simulation 37-41% of the players saw the flop. Thus this would be considered a slightly looser than average table. But not maniac level. I have it playing a 5-10 table and believe this is an accurate appraisal. I recorded the $/per hand earned which is simply the total $ won divided by 300,000, The percentage of flops seen by the advisor with QJo and the win rate (% of hands won) The Stats Position UTG 5 6 7 8 %Flop seen 0% 50% 81% 69% 62% Win Rate 0% 14.2% 21.7% 18.6% 17% $/hand 0 -0.18 -0.31 +0.79 +1.11 Position 10 BB SB %Flop Seen 37% 85% 90% Win Rate 15.69% 23.3% 21.2% $/hand +3.58 -1.38 -1.62 Analysis While I don't believe this will be helpful to many experienced players I do think it has value beyond just QJo. Look at the incredible effect of position on a marginal holding. The profit per hand from the botton is 3x that from just 2 positions earlier. This should highlight for all new players and reaffirm for experienced players the IMPORTANCE OF POSITION. It is also interesting that from the blinds the objective of a marginal holding is to limit the amount of loss suffered from these positions. The blinds are included in the calculations. Thus do not fall in love with this holding just because you have posted the blind as you still have a positional disadvantage and as the sim highlights position has a tremendous effect on EV. It would also be clear that playing QJo from before postion 8 should be saved for players with advanced post flop skills & a strong knowledge of there opponents. There is also an obvious error with the advisors play but I would like to see of anyone else will notice it. | ||
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| Re: Wilson analysis of QJo, Blade, 12. Oct 2003 16:15 | ||
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| A little follow up. Although I realize that poker is entirely a situational game and there is no place for an always or never when it comes to correct play I do believe that one must have a strong foundation to draw and when the situation arises deviate from, else the player is left with chaos and resorts relying on luck. With the above disclamor in mind I have developed the following guidlines for myself concerning the play of QJo preflop. In an unraised pot I will play this hand from positions 8-10. I will fold to a raise regardless of position unless from the blind in which case From the SB I will call 1 raise if there are 5+ players in the pot. This gives me a return of 17% (1.5/9) and I believe in a pot with one raise QJo has a greater than 17% chance to win the hand with 5+ players. From the BB I will call 1 raise with 2+ players. This gives me a return on 20% (1/5). Of course this will always be adjusted based on knowledge of opponents. For example 1 player I face regulary only raises with AQup. I will obviously fold to his raise in almost all situations. On the other hand if a opponent were a complete maniac then I would be more likely to call his raise from late position. Does my preflop strategy with this starting hand have any glaring weaknesses and prehaps more imprtantly is my thinking correct (ie return on investment vs. est chance of victory) | ||
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| Re: Wilson analysis of QJo, Andrew Wells, 12. Oct 2003 16:50 | ||
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| Like any other hand, it's not about whether to play in such and such position, or can it call a raise. From early position you don't know who is going to be in the pot let alone raise, therefore you release QJ. If a solid player has entered the pot ahead of you, then you know QJ is an underdog since you will need a very strong flop. If you have tight players on your left from late position, you might consider limping in since you could wind up acting last after the flop. You may want to raise if it looks like it's going to be just you and a blind involved. You specifically don't want to call a raise cold from a maniac with QJ for several reasons. If you've identified someone who plays wild, there will be others at your table who have noticed this too. They will also be interested in getting involved in a pot with the maniac, so you are probably not going to be heads up with the better hand. Someone might make it three bets behind you, and now you are sucked into a large pot with a hand that you may have to take all the way to the river if you get just a small piece of the flop. This type of hand often needs a free turn card, but even if you have position that isn't going to happen with someone who will automatic bet if checked to. | ||
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| Re: Wilson analysis of QJo, INSINK, 12. Oct 2003 21:26 | ||
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| Are you playing the cards , or the players? If you are playing the cards.......I would limp in late position, and probably fold in position UTG -5 .......this would apply to low limit games...... Short handed with 3-4 players , I might raise pre-flop to see where I stand in a mddle limit game ....10-20, 15-30, 20-40..... For the most part you are correct...this is a tough hand that wins maybe 20% of the time when you are playing "no fold em" HLDM. | ||
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| Re: Wilson analysis of QJo, Mark Barnett II, 13. Oct 2003 08:39 | ||
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| ok confusion here maybe just me but im assuming position 1 is SB 2 is BB UTG is 3 where is position 4? and you have 8 and 10 listed but no 9? *technical nit picking i know but i like your info just wanting to be sure its all included* and the way you have it setup WTF? how is it seeing more flops with the SB than the BB? and by a large % at that | ||
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| Re: Wilson analysis of QJo, Blade, 13. Oct 2003 09:28 | ||
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| When I said 8, I meant that anything after 8 which would include 9&10. I don't think I would play more from the SB but less as the BB requires only 2 or more players with a raise where the SB requires 5 or more players. | ||
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